Manuel Espinoza prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Manuel Espinoza P Tennessee Smokies

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	11	7	47	201	37	9	1	64%	4.3	12.5%	5.6%	6.9%	0.7%	2.49	3.13	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	11	7	47	201	37	9	1	64%	4.3	18.4%	4.5%	13.9%	0.5%	2.49	2.38	—
2021	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	99	436	92	26	18	100%	4.5	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	5.5%	5.11	5.69	—
2021	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	22	99	436	92	26	18	100%	4.5	21.1%	6.0%	15.1%	4.1%	5.11	4.40	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	17	11	67	291	68	31	11	65%	3.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	5.0%	4.86	5.90	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	17	11	67	291	68	31	11	65%	3.9	23.4%	10.7%	12.7%	3.8%	4.86	4.60	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	62	266	60	23	7	79%	3.3	17.7%	9.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.42	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	15	62	266	60	23	7	79%	3.3	17.7%	9.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.42	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	15	62	266	60	23	7	79%	3.3	22.6%	8.6%	13.9%	2.6%	4.48	3.74	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	3	1	7	28	6	2	0	33%	2.3	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.20	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	3	1	7	28	6	2	0	33%	2.3	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.20	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	3	1	7	28	6	2	0	33%	2.3	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	44	184	39	17	6	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.52	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	19	80	17	8	2	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	19	81	17	8	2	100%	6.4	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.14	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	84	21	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		72	56	282	1222	199	105	48	78%	3.9	16.3%	8.6%	7.6%	3.9%	4.44	4.96	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	868	141	75	34	78%	3.9	16.3%	8.6%	7.6%	3.9%	4.44	4.96	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Espinoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	20.8%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.52	21.3%	11.9%	44	-0.05	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	85
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	81
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	81
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	79
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	77
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	77
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	21.1%	9.4%	1.17	4.55
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01