Sergio Morillo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sergio Morillo P Lake County Captains

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.7%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians/Brewers	7	2	10	53	7	10	1	29%	1.4	9.0%	23.6%	-14.6%	2.6%	12.10	6.78	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Indians/Brewers	7	2	10	53	7	10	1	29%	1.4	13.2%	18.9%	-5.7%	1.9%	12.10	6.10	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 2	12	9	43	177	34	18	0	75%	3.6	13.1%	12.7%	0.4%	0.0%	1.66	3.61	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 2	12	9	43	177	34	18	0	75%	3.6	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	0.0%	1.66	2.78	—
2021	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	6	6	14	79	16	13	0	100%	2.4	15.0%	19.4%	-4.4%	0.0%	11.30	4.29	—
2021	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	6	6	14	79	16	13	0	100%	2.4	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	0.0%	11.30	3.59	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	27	127	45	18	1	6%	1.5	27.5%	16.9%	10.6%	1.2%	4.94	3.58	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	1	27	127	45	18	1	6%	1.5	35.4%	14.2%	21.3%	0.8%	4.94	2.26	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	33	0	49	226	53	40	8	0%	1.5	18.1%	20.4%	-2.3%	4.2%	7.21	6.45	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	33	0	49	226	53	40	8	0%	1.5	18.1%	20.4%	-2.3%	4.2%	7.21	6.45	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	33	0	49	226	53	40	8	0%	1.5	23.5%	17.7%	5.8%	3.5%	7.21	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	14.1%	7.6%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	27	0	29	121	26	17	4	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.05	5.06	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.05	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	10	6	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.05	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	114	19	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	3.1%	5.05	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		76	18	143	662	115	118	12	24%	1.9	17.4%	17.8%	-0.3%	1.9%	5.84	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	25	200	924	161	164	17	24%	1.9	17.4%	17.8%	-0.3%	1.9%	5.84	4.91	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sergio Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.7%	14.1%	3.0%	—	5.06	21.9%	8.2%	29	-0.04	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	80
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	78
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	78
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	78
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	78
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	77
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	77
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	77
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	77
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	77
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	76
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.8%	13.9%	1.18	5.08
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27