Adrian Alcantara
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 178 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 13 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 15.9% | 11.5% | 1.0% | 2.38 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 12 | 7 | 45 | 205 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 10.9% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 6.04 | 5.99 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 20 | 96 | 427 | 98 | 30 | 18 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 5.33 | 5.25 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 24 | 18 | 116 | 495 | 130 | 40 | 21 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 4.95 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 12 | 7 | 38 | 170 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 10.0% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | KC | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 22 | — | 22 | 91 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 52 | 329 | 1438 | 237 | 156 | 56 | 16.5% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.24 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 874 | 144 | 95 | 34 | 16.5% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.24 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Alcantara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 22 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 90 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 90 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 88 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 87 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 86 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 86 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 86 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 84 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 83 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 82 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 82 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .362 | 5.48 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.76 | 2.78 | 181 | 81 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2029 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.