Adrian Alcantara
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 178 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 13 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 2.6 | 15.9% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 2.38 | 3.76 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals | 13 | 0 | 34 | 141 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 2.6 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 0.7% | 2.38 | 2.69 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 12 | 7 | 45 | 205 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 58% | 3.7 | 10.9% | 18.3% | -7.3% | 2.7% | 6.04 | 5.99 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Royals | 12 | 7 | 45 | 205 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 58% | 3.7 | 16.1% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 6.04 | 4.80 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 20 | 96 | 427 | 98 | 30 | 18 | 83% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 4.76 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 20 | 96 | 427 | 98 | 30 | 18 | 83% | 4.0 | 23.0% | 7.0% | 15.9% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 4.43 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 116 | 495 | 130 | 40 | 21 | 75% | 4.8 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 4.95 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 116 | 495 | 130 | 40 | 21 | 75% | 4.8 | 26.3% | 8.1% | 18.2% | 4.2% | 4.95 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 7 | 38 | 170 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 58% | 3.1 | 10.0% | 13.0% | -3.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 5.58 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 7 | 38 | 170 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 58% | 3.1 | 17.6% | 12.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 4.30 | 4.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | KC | 2 | 2 | 15 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 7.7 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.3 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.03 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 82 | 27 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 52 | 329 | 1438 | 237 | 156 | 51 | 61% | 3.9 | 16.5% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 5.05 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 874 | 144 | 95 | 31 | 61% | 3.9 | 16.5% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 5.05 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Alcantara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 20 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 76 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 73 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 71 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 71 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 70 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 70 |
| Daniel Federman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.34 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 119 | 70 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 69 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 69 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.52 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .341 | 3.55 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 41 | +0.03 | 3.06 | 222 | 69 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 68 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.93 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .257 | 2.73 | 17.2% | 12.8% | 36 | -2.20 | 2.73 | 357 | 68 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 68 |
| Whit Mayberry R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.51 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.64 | 12.3% | 7.7% | 11 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 140 | 67 |
| Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.48 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 259 | 67 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 66 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 149 | 66 |
| Darien Smith R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 66 |