Owen Nowak

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 L/L A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	21	AHOU	93	.303/.419/.447	0	5	107	—	.259/.355/.383
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBHOU	203	.223/.296/.337	3	6	80	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	64	.228/.302/.350	1	2	82	0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBHOU	137	.231/.304/.356	2	5	85	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%98

Z-Con%93

K%92

Chase%91

wRC+90

Speed90

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 80%

CompsSam Hilliard (age 22) · Zach Borenstein (age 22) · Taylor Trammell (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .294 / .334

PA98

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	76	23	5	3	0	12	13	4	5	1	303	419	447	867	145	365	14	13	389	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	333	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	76	23	5	3	0	12	13	4	5	1	303	419	447	867	145	365	14	13	389	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	93	81	21	4	3	0	8	18	4	5	1	259	355	383	738	123	334	19	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	203	182	41	7	3	3	15	50	4	6	1	223	296	337	633	115	291	25	7	286	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	187	168	39	7	3	3	14	46	3	6	1	225	299	345	644	120	291	25	7	290	82	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	297	267	61	11	4	5	23	72	5	10	2	228	301	352	653	124	292	24	8	294	85	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	364	327	75	14	5	6	28	88	6	12	2	229	303	357	660	128	292	24	8	296	87	-6	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	408	366	83	15	5	7	32	99	7	14	3	230	304	361	664	130	292	24	8	298	88	-6	+2	+0	-2	+9	0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	428	384	88	16	5	8	34	104	7	14	3	230	303	360	664	130	292	24	8	298	88	-6	+2	+0	-3	+9	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	437	392	89	16	5	8	35	107	7	14	3	228	301	356	657	128	291	24	8	295	86	-7	+2	-1	-3	+9	0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	435	392	88	16	5	7	34	108	6	14	3	225	298	349	648	124	289	25	8	291	83	-9	+2	-1	-3	+9	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	431	388	87	16	5	7	34	108	6	13	3	222	295	341	636	119	287	25	8	287	80	-10	+1	-2	-3	+9	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	64	58	13	2	1	1	5	16	1	2	0	228	302	350	651	121	296	25	8	293	82	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	137	123	28	5	2	2	11	33	2	5	1	231	304	356	660	126	297	24	8	297	85	-2	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	188	168	39	7	3	3	15	46	3	6	1	232	305	361	667	129	297	24	8	299	87	-3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	221	198	47	9	3	4	17	53	4	7	1	233	306	365	671	132	297	24	8	301	88	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	232	208	48	9	3	4	18	56	4	8	2	233	306	364	670	132	296	24	8	301	88	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	237	212	49	9	3	4	19	58	4	8	2	231	304	360	664	129	295	24	8	298	86	-4	+1	-0	-1	+5	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	231	208	48	9	3	4	18	57	3	7	2	228	301	353	654	125	294	25	8	294	83	-5	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	226	203	46	9	3	3	18	57	3	7	2	225	297	346	643	121	292	25	8	289	80	-5	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1536	1378	318	59	21	25	121	376	24	50	11	231	304	358	662	128	298	24	8	297	85	-27	+6	-2	-9	+33	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	135	25	9	11	51	159	10	21	5	232	304	362	666	130	298	24	8	297	85	-12	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3178	2854	650	119	41	52	249	774	53	105	22	228	302	353	654	125	293	24	8	294	85	-56	+12	-4	-19	+67	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	133	24	8	11	51	158	11	21	4	228	302	353	655	125	292	24	8	294	85	-12	+2	-1	-4	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,635	27	53	228	298	354	-10	+0	1.2	1.2
/162	664	11	21	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Owen Nowak (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	221/294/334	114	291	1	3	25%	8%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	45→49	44→55	54→55	44	219/281/347	128	305	10	11	30%	8%	76	-0.4	211/262/318	107	335	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	208/281/383	175	283	19	18	32%	9%	85	+0.2
●Zach Borenstein 2012 · A	22	44→54	40→60	58→50	46	212/287/315	103	276	6	15	24%	7%	73	-0.6	237/290/411	174	301	19	10	27%	6%	95	+1.0	252/303/436	184	318	22	6	27%	6%	104	+1.2
✕Taylor Trammell 2019 · A	21	47→48	41→55	54→55	46	222/292/326	104	317	8	21	31%	9%	76	-0.4	207/285/314	107	296	11	16	31%	9%	72	-0.7	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Juan Perez 2014 · A	22	44→50	41→45	53→55	42	216/262/323	107	277	8	18	25%	5%	64	-1.3	213/252/311	98	275	8	16	25%	5%	57	-1.8	226/270/343	117	292	13	24	27%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	213/278/313	100	287	7	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	208/259/299	91	298	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	170/204/219	49	257	0	15	32%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2018 · A	22	46→55	40→45	50→70	43	224/276/319	94	291	8	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	221/281/330	109	307	9	19	29%	7%	73	-0.6	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
●Tristan Peters 2022 · A	22	44→53	40→50	54→50	42	208/272/301	94	318	7	13	35%	8%	63	-1.3	231/298/350	119	293	8	13	22%	8%	84	+0.1	233/307/367	134	284	11	9	21%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2012 · A	22	48→56	39→45	52→55	44	225/285/312	87	301	6	16	26%	7%	70	-0.8	247/294/342	95	330	6	18	26%	5%	80	-0.2	259/299/367	108	345	9	26	26%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Wenceel Pérez 2022 · A	22	45→49	38→55	55	44	217/269/302	86	282	5	15	24%	6%	61	-1.5	236/296/374	138	290	12	17	22%	7%	88	+0.5	237/301/388	150	285	13	19	21%	8%	92	+0.6
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Joe Lampe 2024 · A	23	43→48	38→45	56→55	48	206/282/288	82	270	5	16	24%	8%	64	-1.3	213/276/313	100	290	6	18	27%	7%	67	-1.1	210/271/314	104	289	7	21	28%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Phillip Ervin 2015 · A	23	42→51	43→50	56→55	43	208/262/325	118	265	9	16	25%	6%	65	-1.2	211/283/329	118	266	11	24	24%	8%	74	-0.5	240/304/385	144	304	14	21	24%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	47→57	39→40	52→55	44	222/282/309	86	303	5	16	27%	7%	68	-1.0	253/306/331	78	303	4	15	17%	7%	82	-0.0	258/310/330	72	296	5	18	14%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Nick Ciolli 2010 · A	22	46→47	42→45	53→50	42	226/277/333	107	297	10	17	27%	6%	72	-0.7	217/252/332	115	331	11	10	36%	4%	62	-1.4	211/245/329	118	327	12	9	38%	4%	57	-1.1
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→40	39→50	55	45	212/283/303	91	280	6	19	25%	7%	68	-1.0	207/280/342	135	279	13	18	29%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/337	142	264	15	19	30%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Akil Baddoo 2021 · A	22	42→52	43→50	55	42	199/268/314	115	310	9	14	36%	8%	65	-1.2	240/314/385	145	320	14	21	27%	10%	98	+1.2	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Corey Julks 2019 · A	23	46→50	43→50	52→55	43	222/280/337	115	306	10	18	30%	7%	74	-0.5	214/275/320	106	297	9	13	29%	7%	68	-1.0	231/290/385	154	289	18	21	26%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Michael Siani 2021 · A	22	43→45	38→45	54→60	41	208/264/286	78	288	6	21	29%	6%	56	-1.9	201/273/302	101	275	9	28	28%	8%	63	-1.3	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	41→51	44→45	54→60	51	204/286/315	111	257	12	20	25%	9%	72	-0.7	242/303/338	96	323	8	26	25%	8%	82	+0.0	266/322/394	128	330	12	31	22%	7%	101	+1.3

Owen Nowak

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps