Charlie Weber

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AHOU	22	9	72	3.50	2.91	25.9%	10.0%	—	K 19.2% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	48	0	50	4.75	4.75	20.4%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	27	0	28	4.61	4.55	21.3%	10.5%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	43	0	45	4.49	4.43	21.9%	9.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsPatrick Halligan (age 23) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · John Matthews (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%20.4%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	9	72	301	78	30	4	41%	3.3	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	1.3%	3.50	2.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	48	0	50	211	43	24	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	63	0	66	280	60	29	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.55	0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	284	62	28	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	284	63	28	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	63	0	66	280	62	28	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	271	60	27	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	27	0	28	118	25	12	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.55	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	43	0	45	190	42	19	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	53	224	50	22	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	53	0	56	236	52	23	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54	0	57	241	53	24	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	240	1012	222	101	29	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.08	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	84	24	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		22	9	72	301	58	35	5	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	25	200	836	160	98	14	41%	3.3	19.2%	11.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.50	3.92	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie Weber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.4%	11.4%	2.8%	—	4.46	21.8%	11.7%	201	-0.29	—	—	—
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	90
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	87
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	86
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	85
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	84
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	83
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	83
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	82
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Robinson Tejeda R 2005 · 3.81 FIP	23	SP-	3.81	19.4%	12.7%	1.4%	.251	4.96	16.1%	4.4%	214	+1.15	3.40	435	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	81
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	64	21.7%	10.2%	1.10	4.52
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*