Connor Gehr

P FCL Orioles

Age 21 RHP ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1460ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	11	66	5.48	5.31	18.2%	10.9%	—	K 12.6% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.67
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.54	5.54	16.3%	12.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	4	4	24	5.31	5.19	18.6%	11.3%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBAL	6	6	36	5.05	4.91	20.1%	10.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNolberto Henriquez (age 21) · Abel Brito (age 21) · Sal Biasi (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%16.3%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	66	303	55	33	12	65%	3.9	12.6%	13.4%	-0.8%	5.3%	5.48	6.67	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	66	303	55	33	12	65%	3.9	12.6%	13.4%	-0.8%	5.3%	5.48	6.67	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	66	303	55	33	12	65%	3.9	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	4.0%	5.48	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	12.8%	3.5%	3.3%	5.54	5.54	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	50	210	39	24	7	100%	6.2	18.6%	11.3%	7.3%	3.2%	5.23	5.11	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	50	210	42	22	7	100%	6.2	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	3.2%	4.97	4.83	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	50	210	44	21	7	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.66	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	47	197	42	19	6	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.57	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	47	198	43	19	6	100%	5.8	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.59	4.55	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	46	193	42	18	6	100%	5.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	43	183	39	18	6	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.67	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	24	101	19	12	3	100%	6.0	18.6%	11.3%	7.3%	3.4%	5.31	5.19	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	36	152	31	16	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.4%	9.7%	3.3%	5.05	4.91	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	41	173	36	17	6	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.86	4.74	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	41	173	37	16	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.73	4.65	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	43	182	39	17	6	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.2%	4.67	4.63	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	42	177	38	17	6	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	3.3%	4.67	4.66	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	41	173	37	17	6	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.4%	4.72	4.75	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	269	1135	238	111	37	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.82	4.38	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	83	28	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.82	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		17	11	66	303	38	41	16	65%	3.9	12.6%	13.4%	-0.8%	5.3%	5.48	6.67	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	34	200	923	116	124	49	65%	3.9	12.6%	13.4%	-0.8%	5.3%	5.48	6.67	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 46 IPFIP 4.46 → 6.03 (+1.57)K% 20.5% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.49%	—	×0.680	13.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.71%	—	×1.250	14.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 6.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 19 IPFIP 6.50 → 8.01 (+1.51)K% 13.3% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.27%	—	×0.740	9.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.18%	—	×1.180	10.84%
HR / BF /BF	6.12%	÷1.000	×1.300	7.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.50 → 8.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Gehr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	16.3%	12.8%	3.3%	—	4.87	19.9%	9.4%	149	-0.67	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	93
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	91
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	88
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	86
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	86
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	83
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	83
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	83
Rafael Martinez R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	21	SP-	5.68	15.3%	14.3%	3.8%	.366	2.50	19.4%	11.2%	18	-3.18	2.50	104	83
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	47	20.2%	10.3%	1.23	4.88
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*