Ethan Cole

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#536ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	27	14	104	5.43	3.47	21.0%	8.3%	—	K 15.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.86	4.86	17.2%	9.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	4	4	33	4.94	4.87	18.8%	9.1%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	6	6	47	4.81	4.74	19.8%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNate Peterson (age 23) · Joe Kemlage (age 23) · Dallas Braden (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%17.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.0%	5.43	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	78	327	62	30	9	100%	7.8	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	71	301	60	26	9	100%	7.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	70	296	60	26	9	100%	7.8	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.45	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	68	287	58	25	8	100%	7.6	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.48	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	64	272	55	24	8	100%	7.2	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	60	252	50	23	8	100%	7.5	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	54	228	45	21	8	100%	7.7	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.88	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	52	221	47	20	8	100%	7.5	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.6%	4.80	4.81	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	COL	6	6	46	193	40	18	7	100%	7.6	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.9%	4.94	5.03	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	33	139	26	13	5	100%	8.2	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.94	4.87	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	47	198	39	17	7	100%	7.8	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.74	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	56	236	48	21	8	100%	7.0	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.69	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	58	245	50	21	8	100%	7.2	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	3.4%	4.74	4.73	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	57	241	49	21	8	100%	7.1	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.82	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	54	228	46	21	8	100%	7.7	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	3.7%	4.91	4.97	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	50	211	41	20	8	100%	7.1	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.9%	5.06	5.16	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	49	207	44	19	9	100%	7.0	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	4.2%	5.10	5.11	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	43	182	38	17	8	100%	7.2	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	4.5%	5.26	5.35	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	447	1888	381	170	69	100%	7.5	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.91	4.55	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	170	76	31	100%	7.5	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.91	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		27	14	104	458	71	45	12	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	27	200	878	136	86	22	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 104 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.43 (+0.97)K% 21.0% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.96%	—	×0.740	15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.30%	—	×1.180	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	17.2%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.53	19.6%	10.7%	219	-0.33	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	84
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	84
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	84
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	83
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	82
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	82
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	82
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	962	81
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	81
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	80
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	80
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	80
Thomas Ireland L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP-	4.05	17.6%	9.5%	2.2%	.318	3.66	16.9%	7.6%	138	-0.39	2.95	250	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	64	19.7%	9.1%	1.20	4.67
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*)	3.2	64	17.3%*	9.3%*	1.05*	4.00*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*