Ethan Cole — OGILVIE

Ethan Cole P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 121

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%20.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	COL	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.0%	5.43	3.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	106	448	96	40	13	100%	7.6	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.48	4.42	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	109	459	101	39	13	100%	7.2	22.0%	8.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.31	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	110	464	104	39	13	100%	7.3	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	110	464	105	39	13	100%	7.3	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.22	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	108	457	103	38	14	100%	7.2	22.5%	8.4%	14.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.26	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	105	444	99	38	14	100%	7.5	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.31	4.34	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	100	424	94	37	14	100%	7.7	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.48	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	94	399	87	36	14	100%	7.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	3.4%	4.56	4.65	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	88	372	80	35	13	100%	7.3	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	81	344	72	34	13	100%	7.4	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.9%	4.95	5.08	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	52	220	47	20	7	100%	7.4	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.4%	4.73	4.67	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	76	321	70	27	11	100%	7.6	22.0%	8.5%	13.4%	3.4%	4.61	4.55	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	89	376	84	31	13	100%	7.4	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	3.3%	4.53	4.49	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	96	405	91	34	14	100%	7.4	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.46	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	98	414	93	35	14	100%	7.5	22.5%	8.4%	14.2%	3.4%	4.51	4.51	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	97	410	92	35	14	100%	7.5	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.5%	4.57	4.60	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	93	393	87	34	14	100%	7.8	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.7%	4.68	4.75	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	88	372	81	34	15	100%	7.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.8%	3.9%	4.84	4.93	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	84	355	76	33	15	100%	7.6	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	4.2%	5.04	5.16	+0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	77	325	68	32	15	100%	7.7	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	4.5%	5.27	5.40	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	114	851	3591	790	315	131	100%	7.5	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.7%	4.71	4.36	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	186	74	31	100%	7.5	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.7%	4.71	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		27	14	104	458	71	45	12	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	27	200	878	136	86	22	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.4%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.33	21.9%	13.3%	325	-0.27	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	84
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	79
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	78
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	77
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	77
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	77
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	75
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	75
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	75
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	74
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	74
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	73
Didier Vargas L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	15.8%	8.7%	2.9%	.346	4.12	18.9%	8.2%	110	-0.36	3.58	286	73
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	72
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	72
Alejandro Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.49 FIP	20	SP-	3.49	16.3%	6.3%	1.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.78	181	72
Luis Guzman L 2016 · 4.41 FIP	20	SP-	4.41	14.7%	5.9%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	116	72
Caleb Baragar L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	22	SP-	3.65	15.6%	9.2%	1.3%	.300	4.48	16.5%	8.1%	330	+0.83	3.65	557	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	94	22.0%	8.8%	1.22	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73