Joshua Fermin — OGILVIE

Joshua FerminOF DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 175 lbs ROK HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .265 / .273

PA118

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	93	19	6	1	1	8	31	6	5	4	204	308	323	631	118	295	28	7	288	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	118	26	5	1	0	17	28	5	11	2	220	343	280	623	59	286	20	12	293	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	96	12	3	1	1	5	40	6	5	4	125	215	208	423	83	182	37	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	123	18	3	1	0	12	34	5	11	2	146	250	187	437	41	184	24	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	96	12	3	1	1	5	40	6	5	4	125	215	208	423	83	200	37	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	93	19	6	1	1	8	31	6	5	4	204	308	323	631	118	295	28	7	288	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	123	18	3	1	0	12	34	5	11	2	146	250	187	437	41	200	24	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	118	26	5	1	0	17	28	5	11	2	220	343	280	623	59	286	20	12	293	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	97	12	3	1	1	5	40	6	5	4	124	215	206	421	82	182	37	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	124	18	3	1	0	12	34	5	11	2	145	250	185	435	40	184	24	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	109	97	12	3	1	1	5	40	6	5	4	124	215	206	421	82	182	37	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	142	124	18	3	1	0	12	34	5	11	2	145	250	185	435	40	184	24	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	KC	0%	252	229	46	8	2	2	17	70	4	5	1	199	267	276	543	77	276	28	7	249	55	-14	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	KC	34%	206	186	39	7	2	2	14	57	4	5	1	204	273	290	563	86	278	28	7	258	61	-10	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
2028	20	MLB CTX	KC	34%	71	65	13	2	1	1	5	19	1	2	0	203	272	287	559	84	277	27	7	256	61	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	71	65	13	2	1	1	5	19	1	2	0	200	268	308	575	108	267	27	7	256	38	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	118	18	9	9	46	174	9	18	0	198	266	304	570	106	265	27	7	256	38	-31	+4	+0	-4	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	575	512	91	17	5	4	39	164	17	24	8	178	259	254	513	76	251	29	7	224	38	-16	+1	+0	-2	+7	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	103	19	6	5	44	185	19	27	9	178	259	257	516	79	250	28	7	224	38	-32	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joshua Fermin (OGILVIE)	19	35→40	29→34	54→59	50	198/265/273	76	276	1	3	28%	7%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Esteban Mejia 2024 · A	19	39	36→40	55→50	41	188/242/257	68	263	3	15	28%	6%	41	-3.0	199/263/280	81	297	6	14	32%	7%	55	-1.9	196/265/273	77	287	7	15	32%	7%	52	-1.1
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	39	36→40	52→55	45	184/248/252	68	235	3	13	22%	6%	43	-2.8	196/262/276	80	267	6	17	27%	7%	54	-2.0	194/268/275	82	258	8	24	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	39	37→40	54→50	46	185/258/260	75	249	3	18	26%	8%	49	-2.4	204/270/286	82	298	5	9	31%	7%	59	-1.7	199/271/269	69	303	4	7	33%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Roni Cabrera 2024 · A	19	39	38→45	54→55	47	186/265/271	85	255	5	11	27%	8%	55	-2.0	182/254/288	106	286	10	14	37%	7%	54	-2.0	162/238/271	109	264	12	18	41%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Ryan Burrowes 2024 · A	19	40→45	36→40	52→60	40	188/258/259	71	285	3	14	33%	6%	49	-2.4	197/264/267	70	320	5	25	37%	7%	53	-2.1	200/271/277	77	308	7	32	35%	7%	56	-1.4
✕Benny Montgomery 2022 · A	19	47→43	37→40	52→50	43	222/274/292	70	307	4	12	28%	6%	61	-1.5	225/283/331	106	361	9	12	37%	6%	74	-0.5	207/268/294	86	347	7	11	39%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Angel Aponte 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	56→55	44	185/255/267	82	238	6	20	24%	6%	50	-2.3	204/263/292	88	285	6	19	29%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/297	93	286	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Luis Andujar 2019 · A	19	40	36→30	53→50	41	189/245/254	65	270	3	9	30%	6%	42	-2.9	201/270/270	69	272	3	10	25%	8%	55	-1.9	192/273/252	60	253	1	12	22%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Erick Torres 2024 · A	19	44	36→30	53→50	47	209/272/282	74	262	3	15	21%	7%	59	-1.7	211/271/270	59	265	3	14	20%	7%	55	-1.9	213/271/263	50	265	3	15	20%	6%	51	-1.6
✕Zac Law 2015 · A	19	44→45	36→40	54→50	41	207/259/280	72	274	3	9	24%	5%	53	-2.1	211/254/299	88	271	7	11	24%	4%	55	-1.9	210/260/283	73	275	5	12	24%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Angel Mateo 2024 · A	19	39→48	40	53→55	43	193/268/278	85	257	8	13	27%	6%	57	-1.8	200/264/292	92	281	8	15	30%	6%	59	-1.7	195/259/288	93	273	8	16	30%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	40→43	34→30	51→50	45	189/256/237	48	251	2	16	24%	7%	42	-2.9	211/305/254	43	285	1	19	23%	10%	66	-1.1	200/318/229	29	278	1	24	24%	13%	64	-0.5
✕Jesus Hernandez 2023 · A	19	42	35→40	52→55	50	200/266/258	58	248	3	15	20%	8%	51	-2.3	194/274/273	79	271	5	15	28%	10%	58	-1.7	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Demetrio Nadal 2023 · A	19	40	35→30	55	49	187/276/246	60	239	2	17	21%	8%	53	-2.1	198/294/272	74	252	4	25	21%	9%	66	-1.1	181/288/252	71	236	5	32	23%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Athanael Duarte 2024 · A	19	40	38→40	54→45	47	190/248/268	78	225	6	14	19%	6%	47	-2.6	183/258/265	82	267	6	7	31%	8%	51	-2.3	153/243/231	78	239	5	5	35%	9%	36	-1.0
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	37	37→40	52→55	39	182/236/252	70	264	4	14	31%	6%	38	-3.2	194/241/254	60	283	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.1	183/218/203	20	254	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.3
✕Carlos Tatis 2016 · A	19	45	36→45	53→45	44	209/270/277	68	284	3	11	26%	7%	57	-1.8	195/249/278	83	253	6	5	24%	6%	49	-2.4	180/233/257	77	232	7	3	25%	5%	37	-1.2
✕David Kandilas 2010 · A	19	42→44	36→45	53→55	44	198/250/267	69	260	3	10	24%	6%	47	-2.6	211/257/310	99	279	7	12	26%	5%	59	-1.7	212/264/323	111	274	7	16	24%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Jean Selmo 2018 · A	18	37	38→40	53→45	42	178/244/257	79	264	5	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/268	81	287	4	8	33%	8%	49	-2.4	189/276/283	93	254	3	8	24%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	191/245/253	62	254	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	219/272/310	91	283	7	7	24%	6%	65	-1.2	198/260/284	86	272	8	6	29%	6%	54	-0.9