Erick Torres
OF Quad Cities River Bandits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AKC | 514 | .237/.338/.298 | 4 | 25 | 49 | — | .204/.283/.254 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+KC | 446 | .233/.300/.301 | 2 | 13 | 42 | — | .211/.265/.270 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+KC | 361 | .271/.331/.330 | 3 | 15 | 65 | — | .252/.297/.298 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBKC | 1 | .217/.270/.271 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBKC | 102 | .222/.277/.292 | 1 | 2 | 63 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBKC | 169 | .226/.283/.308 | 2 | 4 | 70 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | — | 202 | 173 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 266 | 365 | 382 | 747 | 116 | 319 | 17 | 10 | 338 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 160 | 138 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 319 | 397 | 428 | 825 | 109 | 367 | 12 | 10 | 362 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 439 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 57 | 72 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 237 | 338 | 298 | 636 | 62 | 273 | 14 | 11 | 295 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 399 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 233 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 68 | 277 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 321 | 87 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 54 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 271 | 331 | 330 | 662 | 59 | 310 | 15 | 7 | 294 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 202 | 179 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 162 | 250 | 229 | 479 | 67 | 196 | 21 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 160 | 144 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 250 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 83 | 292 | 18 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 456 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 102 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 204 | 283 | 254 | 537 | 50 | 245 | 20 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 407 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 211 | 265 | 270 | 536 | 59 | 253 | 20 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 329 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 252 | 297 | 298 | 595 | 46 | 292 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 202 | 179 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 162 | 250 | 229 | 479 | 67 | 201 | 21 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL KC Glass | — | 202 | 173 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 266 | 365 | 382 | 747 | 116 | 319 | 17 | 10 | 338 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 160 | 144 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 250 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 83 | 308 | 18 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 160 | 138 | 44 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 319 | 397 | 428 | 825 | 109 | 367 | 12 | 10 | 362 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 456 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 102 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 204 | 283 | 254 | 537 | 50 | 254 | 20 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 439 | 104 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 57 | 72 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 237 | 338 | 298 | 636 | 62 | 273 | 14 | 11 | 295 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 407 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 211 | 265 | 270 | 536 | 59 | 265 | 20 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 399 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 233 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 68 | 277 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 329 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 252 | 297 | 298 | 595 | 46 | 306 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 321 | 87 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 54 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 271 | 331 | 330 | 662 | 59 | 310 | 15 | 7 | 294 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 202 | 179 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 162 | 250 | 229 | 479 | 67 | 196 | 21 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 160 | 147 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 245 | 308 | 327 | 634 | 82 | 292 | 18 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 459 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 102 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 203 | 283 | 253 | 535 | 50 | 245 | 20 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 413 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 208 | 265 | 266 | 532 | 58 | 253 | 20 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 337 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 246 | 297 | 291 | 588 | 45 | 292 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 514 | 459 | 93 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 102 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 203 | 283 | 253 | 535 | 50 | 245 | 20 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 446 | 413 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 208 | 265 | 266 | 532 | 58 | 253 | 20 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 361 | 337 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 246 | 297 | 291 | 588 | 45 | 292 | 19 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 471 | 436 | 95 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 87 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 218 | 272 | 274 | 546 | 55 | 264 | 18 | 6 | 250 | 55 | -25 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | KC | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 270 | 271 | 541 | 55 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 55 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | KC | 35% | 294 | 271 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 279 | 296 | 576 | 72 | 266 | 18 | 6 | 262 | 63 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 46% | 366 | 336 | 77 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 67 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 229 | 285 | 313 | 598 | 85 | 268 | 18 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 52% | 406 | 373 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 74 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 231 | 289 | 324 | 613 | 93 | 270 | 18 | 6 | 277 | 74 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 430 | 395 | 92 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 80 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 232 | 291 | 330 | 621 | 98 | 270 | 19 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 437 | 401 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 82 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 232 | 291 | 331 | 623 | 100 | 271 | 19 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 437 | 401 | 93 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 83 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 230 | 289 | 327 | 616 | 97 | 270 | 19 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -13 | -0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | KC | 35% | 102 | 94 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 277 | 292 | 570 | 70 | 264 | 19 | 6 | 259 | 63 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | KC | 46% | 169 | 154 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 82 | 266 | 18 | 7 | 268 | 70 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 52% | 210 | 192 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 90 | 268 | 18 | 7 | 274 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 233 | 214 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 288 | 324 | 612 | 94 | 268 | 18 | 6 | 277 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 237 | 217 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 96 | 269 | 19 | 7 | 277 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 237 | 217 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 287 | 320 | 607 | 93 | 268 | 19 | 7 | 275 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1188 | 1088 | 250 | 35 | 5 | 18 | 78 | 221 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 230 | 288 | 321 | 609 | 91 | 271 | 19 | 7 | 273 | 63 | -38 | +1 | -0 | -7 | +26 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 137 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 121 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 230 | 289 | 323 | 612 | 92 | 272 | 19 | 7 | 273 | 63 | -21 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4263 | 3886 | 871 | 111 | 22 | 49 | 272 | 811 | 52 | 132 | 59 | 224 | 284 | 302 | 586 | 78 | 269 | 19 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -88 | +1 | -1 | -15 | +56 | -4.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 132 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 41 | 124 | 8 | 20 | 9 | 223 | 282 | 297 | 579 | 74 | 268 | 19 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -22 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 361 PAwOBA .293 → .264 (−29)K% 15.0% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.96% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 27.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 1.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .293 → .264; ISO .059 → .050; BABIP .310 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 446 PAwOBA .266 → .231 (−35)K% 15.9% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.92% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.95% | ÷0.981 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.18% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.012 | ×0.850 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .266 → .231; ISO .068 → .056; BABIP .277 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 514 PAwOBA .290 → .240 (−49)K% 14.0% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.01% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.09% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.43% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.54% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.27% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .290 → .240; ISO .062 → .053; BABIP .273 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 160 PAwOBA .357 → .275 (−83)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.81% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×1.007 | ×1.008 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.007 | ×1.008 | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.24% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | ×1.007 | ×1.008 | 3.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .357 → .275; ISO .109 → .084; BABIP .367 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL KC Glass · 202 PAwOBA .330 → .211 (−118)K% 17.3% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.33% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.64% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 15.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.136 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.879 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 104, 2B 127, 3B 102, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .330 → .211; ISO .116 → .063; BABIP .319 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).