Rafael Gonzalez

P DSL Tigers 2

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 173 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	13	19	8.53	5.68	12.9%	24.8%	—	K 8.8% · BB 30.9% · FIP 6.28
2026	21	ROKDSL Tigers 2	15	27	6.33	4.17	24.0%	16.8%	—	K 16.3% · BB 21.0% · FIP 5.61
2027PROJ	22	MLBHOU	13	14	5.97	5.97	19.6%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBHOU	11	12	5.58	5.43	20.9%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · Jackson Rose (age 22) · Conor Grady (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%19.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	0	19	101	13	25	0	0%	1.5	8.8%	30.9%	-22.2%	0.0%	8.53	6.28	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	0	19	101	13	25	0	0%	1.5	8.8%	30.9%	-22.2%	0.0%	8.53	6.28	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	0	19	101	13	25	0	0%	1.5	12.9%	24.8%	-11.9%	0.0%	8.53	5.68	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	15	0	27	125	30	21	2	0%	1.8	16.3%	21.0%	-4.7%	2.2%	6.33	5.61	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	15	0	27	125	30	21	2	0%	1.8	16.3%	21.0%	-4.7%	2.2%	6.33	5.61	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	15	0	27	125	30	21	2	0%	1.8	24.0%	16.8%	7.2%	1.6%	6.33	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	13	0	14	59	12	12	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	20.0%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.97	5.97	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	24	0	25	106	22	18	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.7%	4.1%	2.9%	5.58	5.43	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	11	0	12	51	11	8	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.7%	4.1%	2.9%	5.58	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	11	9	2	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.7%	4.1%	2.9%	5.58	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	145	32	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.7%	4.1%	2.9%	5.58	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		28	0	46	226	29	58	3	0%	1.6	12.9%	25.4%	-12.5%	1.2%	7.24	5.91	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	0	200	983	127	250	12	0%	1.6	12.9%	25.4%	-12.5%	1.2%	7.24	5.91	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	19.6%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.43	20.9%	4.1%	25	-0.54	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	91
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	88
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	88
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	85
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	85
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	84
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	84