Jhon Rivas — OGILVIE

Jhon Rivas P FCL Blue Jays

Age 18 RHP 5'9" / 155 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.1%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	15.8%	-2.1%	4.2%	7.56	6.27	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	15.8%	-2.1%	4.2%	7.56	6.27	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	0	17	79	16	10	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	12.7%	7.6%	2.5%	7.56	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.0%	1.62	4.71	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.0%	1.62	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	TOR	8	0	17	70	13	7	1	0%	2.1	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	1.4%	1.62	3.58	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.86	4.78	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.86	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.86	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.86	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		20	0	33	149	20	21	5	0%	1.7	13.2%	14.3%	-1.0%	3.2%	4.59	5.54	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	894	118	128	29	0%	1.7	13.2%	14.3%	-1.0%	3.2%	4.59	5.54	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	21.1%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.78	21.7%	9.8%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Francisco Frias R 2023 · 5.74 FIP	18	SU	5.74	20.8%	14.1%	4.8%	.294	4.83	19.2%	2.2%	134	-0.91	4.00	148	86
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	85
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	84
Alejandro Lugo R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	20.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.265	4.96	16.7%	3.1%	98	+0.05	3.77	159	84
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	84
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	83
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	83
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	83
Kevin Tejada R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	18	SU	3.97	17.4%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	5.53	13.1%	2.7%	78	+1.56	3.97	108	83
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	517	82
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	82
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	82
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	82
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	82
Seth Mayberry R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	19	SU	4.12	18.3%	14.4%	1.4%	.270	3.41	23.6%	10.3%	53	-0.71	2.88	120	82
Carlos De Los Santos R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	18	SU	5.68	16.9%	16.0%	3.6%	.286	3.95	20.9%	3.2%	86	-1.73	3.67	173	81
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	81
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	81
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	81
Greiber Mendez R 2022 · 4.92 FIP	18	SU	4.92	15.7%	11.5%	3.1%	.330	4.78	16.7%	2.5%	152	-0.14	3.64	247	81