Francisco Frias
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143133vR 124
ERA5.50
FIP5.50
K%17.6%
BB%15.6%
K-BB%2.0%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 14.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.21 | 5.88 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.6% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 3.21 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 13 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 42 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 7.44 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 13 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 42 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 29.4% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 0.7% | 7.44 | 2.67 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 32 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 60 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.09 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 32 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 60 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 3.09 | 3.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 23 | 0 | 29 | 142 | 38 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 23.0% | -2.9% | 1.0% | 4.97 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 31 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.50 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 71 | 319 | 69 | 54 | 6 | — | — | 21.7% | 16.8% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 5.28 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.50 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 35 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.75 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 118 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 134 | 597 | 114 | 102 | 9 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.2% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 0 | 200 | 891 | 171 | 152 | 14 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.2% | 17.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francisco Frias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.50 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.13 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 44 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Stefan Raeth R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 91 |
| Cory Thompson R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 91 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 91 |
| Tyler Smith R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.30 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.45 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 94 | -0.85 | 3.48 | 121 | 90 |
| Michael Perez R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.68 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.58 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 109 | -1.10 | 4.35 | 131 | 89 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.72 | 19.1% | 15.5% | 2.3% | .357 | 4.55 | 20.8% | 4.9% | 100 | -0.17 | 3.90 | 178 | 89 |
| Adam Ravenelle R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .322 | 4.84 | 17.1% | 4.3% | 130 | +0.47 | 4.37 | 165 | 88 |
| Nick Kuzia R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.18 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | .361 | 5.13 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 60 | -0.05 | 4.55 | 231 | 88 |
| Cole Hillier R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Tim Naughton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 17.9% | 15.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.63 | 20.7% | 6.4% | 83 | -0.90 | 2.88 | 305 | 86 |
| Junior Rincon R 2028 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 86 |
| Andy Basora R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.35 | 16.2% | 15.6% | 3.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 164 | 86 |
| Samuel Carpio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.32 | 21.2% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.71 | 21.2% | -4.8% | 90 | +1.39 | 4.32 | 112 | 85 |
| Zane Barnhart R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.73 | 18.2% | 16.7% | 1.9% | .214 | 3.87 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 86 | -0.86 | 3.27 | 129 | 85 |
| Mario Alcantara R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.71 | 17.0% | 0.9% | 97 | -0.15 | 4.55 | 171 | 85 |
| Jason García R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.52 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .241 | 4.33 | 13.2% | 1.2% | 218 | -0.19 | 4.13 | 356 | 85 |
| James Acuna R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 85 |
| Jackson Rose R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.32 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 4.58 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 56 | -0.74 | 3.55 | 147 | 85 |
| Mauricio Estrella R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.92 | 19.1% | 16.1% | 2.5% | .280 | 3.33 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 46 | -1.59 | 3.33 | 220 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 18.3% | 14.7% | 1.07 | 5.36 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |