Francisco Frias
P
Asheville Tourists
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2030
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.1%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 10 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 20.8% | 14.1% | 4.9% | 3.21 | 5.81 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 13 | 0 | 33 | 143 | 42 | 19 | 1 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 0.8% | 7.44 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 32 | 0 | 58 | 250 | 60 | 31 | 3 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 3.09 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 14.73 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 50 | 221 | 49 | 27 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 5.29 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 109 | 481 | 92 | 75 | 8 | 19.1% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 4.80 | 4.39 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 0 | 200 | 885 | 169 | 138 | 15 | 19.1% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 4.80 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francisco Frias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.16 | 23.7% | 14.3% | 150 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 93 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 91 |
| Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.08 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.58 | 3.73 | 156 | 91 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 91 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.44 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.05 | 2.98 | 107 | 90 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 89 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 88 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.69 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.52 | 4.17 | 106 | 88 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 88 |
| Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 88 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 88 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.79 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 3.0% | .263 | 5.62 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 56 | +0.83 | 3.32 | 124 | 88 |
| Luke Stofel R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.27 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.31 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 97 | +0.04 | 4.27 | 139 | 88 |
| Hayden Snelsire R 2028 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .272 | 3.84 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 79 | -1.31 | 3.84 | 122 | 88 |
| Adam Ravenelle R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.32 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 1.8% | .322 | 5.06 | 17.1% | 4.3% | 130 | +0.74 | 4.32 | 165 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.84 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .254 | 4.24 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 130 | -0.60 | 4.16 | 159 | 87 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 87 |
| Rolddy Muñoz R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.30 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 149 | -0.76 | 3.15 | 238 | 87 |
| Davison Palermo R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .246 | 4.95 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 108 | +0.65 | 4.30 | 151 | 87 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.52 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.77 | 3.24 | 288 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $6M | $16M | +$10M | ||