Francisco Frias — OGILVIE

Francisco Frias P Asheville Tourists

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%17.6%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%0.8%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	10	0	14	62	19	7	2	0%	1.4	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	4.8%	3.21	5.74	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	10	0	14	62	19	7	2	0%	1.4	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	4.8%	3.21	5.74	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	10	0	14	62	19	7	2	0%	1.4	30.6%	11.3%	19.4%	3.2%	3.21	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	20.0%	16.6%	3.4%	0.9%	7.44	4.00	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	20.0%	16.6%	3.4%	0.9%	7.44	4.00	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	29.4%	13.3%	16.1%	0.7%	7.44	2.67	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.6%	3.09	4.31	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.6%	3.09	4.31	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	24.0%	12.4%	11.6%	1.2%	3.09	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	36	0	46	231	62	39	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	4.0%	7.19	6.17	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	36	0	46	231	62	39	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	4.0%	7.19	6.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	HOU	1	0	3	12	4	0	0	0%	3.3	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	HOU	35	0	43	219	58	39	7	0%	1.2	26.5%	17.8%	8.7%	3.2%	7.74	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	55	233	44	34	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	14.6%	4.4%	2.8%	5.35	5.24	-0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	57	242	49	32	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.3%	6.8%	2.7%	5.09	4.96	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	22	17	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	14.6%	4.4%	2.8%	5.35	5.24	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	36	24	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.3%	6.8%	2.7%	5.09	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	291	57	40	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.8%	5.9%	2.7%	5.19	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	116	23	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.8%	5.9%	2.7%	5.19	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		91	0	151	686	133	116	17	0%	1.7	19.4%	17.0%	2.4%	2.5%	5.29	5.00	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	907	176	154	23	0%	1.7	19.4%	17.0%	2.4%	2.5%	5.29	5.00	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Frias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	17.6%	16.7%	2.8%	—	5.10	19.6%	5.6%	112	-0.55	—	—	—
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	91
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	89
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	87
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	87
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	86
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	86
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	85
Luis Almonte R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	20	SU	4.51	15.5%	15.9%	1.3%	.286	2.93	25.7%	19.4%	52	-1.58	2.20	105	85
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	85
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	84
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	84
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	19.0%	14.7%	1.07	5.34
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77