Wily Villar — OGILVIE

Wily Villar P Hickory Crawdads

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%23.6%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.1%	8.0%	1.2%	6.23	3.74	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.1%	8.0%	1.2%	6.23	3.74	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	15.6%	14.8%	0.8%	6.23	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	34	0	54	240	58	18	10	0%	1.6	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	5.1%	5.00	5.57	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	34	0	54	240	58	18	10	0%	1.6	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	5.1%	5.00	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	TEX	26	0	41	178	43	14	7	0%	1.6	24.2%	7.9%	16.3%	3.9%	4.87	4.21	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	TEX	5	0	9	41	13	1	2	0%	1.8	31.7%	2.4%	29.3%	4.9%	5.00	3.41	—
2026	27	AA RAW	TEX	3	0	4	21	2	3	1	0%	1.4	9.5%	14.3%	-4.8%	4.8%	6.23	6.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	110	28	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		53	0	80	362	72	42	14	0%	1.5	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.8%	5.40	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	905	181	105	34	0%	1.5	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.8%	5.40	4.95	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wily Villar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	23.6%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.88	23.5%	10.0%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	81
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	80
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	80
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	79
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	79
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	78
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	78
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	78