Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 4 | 46 | 195 | 53 | 35 | 0 | 17% | 1.9 | 20.1% | 21.2% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 2.36 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TB | — | — | 78 | 330 | 84 | 48 | 4 | — | — | 25.6% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 3.19 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 32 | 0 | 34 | 143 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TB | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TB | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TB | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TB | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TB | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TB | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 151 | 0 | 159 | 671 | 166 | 59 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 3.72 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 74 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 4 | 46 | 195 | 39 | 41 | 0 | 17% | 1.9 | 20.1% | 21.2% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 2.36 | 4.08 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 18 | 200 | 854 | 172 | 181 | 0 | 17% | 1.9 | 20.1% | 21.2% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 2.36 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Kuhn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.13 | 24.5% | 15.6% | 102 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 91 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 86 |
| Parker Curry R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 86 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 85 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 85 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 85 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 85 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 84 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 83 |
| Troy Bacon R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 5.02 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 83 | +0.54 | 3.43 | 203 | 83 |
| Luke Bell R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 83 |
| Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 83 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 83 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.15 | 3.00 | 144 | 83 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 83 |
| Luis Romero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 82 |
| Chris Gau R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 34 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 4.17 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |