Jesus Bello — OGILVIE

Jesus BelloC DSL Rockies

Age 18 R/R 5'7" / 180 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .301 / .296

PA6

HR0

K%21

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$45M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$18M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	75	58	12	2	0	0	10	7	5	2	0	207	370	241	611	34	226	9	13	297	87	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	75	62	9	1	0	0	6	10	5	2	0	145	274	161	435	16	169	13	8	218	34	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	75	62	9	1	0	0	6	10	5	2	0	145	274	161	435	16	167	13	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	—	75	58	12	2	0	0	10	7	5	2	0	207	370	241	611	34	226	9	13	297	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	75	64	9	1	0	0	6	10	5	2	0	141	274	156	430	16	169	13	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	—	75	64	9	1	0	0	6	10	5	2	0	141	274	156	430	16	169	13	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	COL	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		289	17	0	277	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	COL	34%	163	146	35	6	1	2	12	35	4	2	1	240	315	336	650	96	291	21	7	286	80	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2028	20	MLB MLE	COL	48%	308	274	65	11	2	4	24	66	7	4	1	237	315	336	651	99	293	21	8	293	84	-6	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2029	21	MLB MLE	COL	54%	419	373	88	15	2	6	33	89	10	5	1	236	315	335	650	99	294	21	8	298	87	-6	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	COL	57%	499	445	107	18	3	8	39	105	12	6	2	240	319	348	667	108	294	21	8	301	90	-6	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	COL	58%	520	461	110	18	3	8	41	109	13	7	2	239	318	343	661	104	295	21	8	303	91	-6	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	COL	57%	520	461	112	19	3	8	41	109	13	7	2	243	322	349	672	106	296	21	8	304	92	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	COL	57%	520	461	113	19	3	9	41	109	13	7	2	245	324	358	682	113	296	21	8	305	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	COL	57%	520	461	112	18	3	9	41	109	13	7	2	243	322	354	676	111	296	21	8	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	COL	55%	520	460	111	18	3	9	42	109	13	7	2	241	322	352	675	111	296	21	8	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	COL	55%	520	460	111	18	3	9	42	110	13	6	2	241	322	352	675	111	295	21	8	305	92	-5	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	COL	58%	520	459	111	18	3	9	43	111	13	6	1	242	324	353	677	111	295	21	8	303	91	-5	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	COL	60%	520	459	110	18	3	8	43	112	13	5	1	240	322	344	667	105	293	22	8	300	89	-7	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	COL	62%	504	446	104	17	2	8	41	111	12	4	1	233	315	334	649	101	291	22	8	296	86	-8	+0	-3	+9	+11	1.0
2040	32	MLB MLE	COL	63%	489	434	99	16	2	7	40	109	12	4	1	228	311	323	633	94	288	22	8	290	83	-10	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.6
2041	33	MLB MLE	COL	63%	473	421	93	14	2	6	38	108	11	3	1	221	302	306	609	86	284	23	8	284	78	-12	+0	-4	+8	+10	0.2
2042	34	MLB MLE	COL	59%	430	382	83	12	2	5	35	101	10	2	0	217	300	298	598	81	279	23	8	276	73	-14	+0	-5	+8	+9	-0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	COL	34%	56	51	12	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	235	304	333	637	98	306	21	7	282	80	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	COL	48%	149	132	33	6	1	2	12	32	4	2	0	250	331	356	687	106	308	21	8	290	84	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.4
2029	21	MLB CTX	COL	54%	227	202	52	9	2	4	18	48	5	3	1	257	333	381	715	124	309	21	8	295	87	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	22	MLB CTX	COL	57%	282	251	64	11	2	5	22	60	7	4	1	255	332	375	707	120	310	21	8	298	90	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2031	23	MLB CTX	COL	58%	299	266	67	12	2	5	24	63	7	4	1	252	330	368	698	117	311	21	8	300	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2032	24	MLB CTX	COL	57%	296	264	67	12	2	5	23	62	7	4	1	254	330	371	701	117	312	21	8	302	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2033	25	MLB CTX	COL	57%	295	263	67	11	2	6	23	62	7	4	1	255	331	380	711	125	312	21	8	303	93	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	26	MLB CTX	COL	57%	294	262	67	11	2	6	23	62	7	4	1	256	332	382	714	126	312	21	8	304	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	27	MLB CTX	COL	55%	289	257	66	11	2	6	23	61	7	4	1	257	334	385	720	128	312	21	8	304	93	-2	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2036	28	MLB CTX	COL	55%	286	254	64	11	2	5	23	61	7	3	1	252	331	370	701	118	311	21	8	303	92	-3	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.9
2037	29	MLB CTX	COL	58%	302	267	67	11	2	6	25	65	7	3	1	251	331	375	706	124	310	22	8	300	91	-3	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.8
2038	30	MLB CTX	COL	60%	313	276	70	12	2	6	26	68	8	3	1	254	335	377	712	123	309	22	8	297	89	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.7
2039	31	MLB CTX	COL	62%	311	275	67	11	2	5	26	68	7	3	1	244	325	353	677	109	306	22	8	293	86	-5	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.6
2040	32	MLB CTX	COL	63%	307	272	66	11	2	5	25	69	7	2	1	243	322	353	675	110	303	22	8	287	83	-6	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.4
2041	33	MLB CTX	COL	63%	300	266	63	10	2	4	24	68	7	2	0	237	316	335	651	98	298	23	8	280	78	-8	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.2
2042	34	MLB CTX	COL	59%	254	226	51	8	1	3	20	60	6	1	0	226	306	310	615	84	293	24	8	271	73	-8	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4260	3784	943	159	28	74	341	921	101	47	12	249	328	365	692	115	309	22	8	295	87	-61	+5	-12	+76	+92	10.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	143	24	4	11	52	141	15	7	2	248	326	360	686	113	308	22	8	295	87	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7526	6671	1574	256	40	115	602	1613	187	84	22	236	317	338	655	102	293	21	8	297	87	-107	+8	-20	+133	+161	17.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	135	22	3	10	52	139	16	7	2	234	315	335	650	101	290	21	8	297	87	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.5	4,332	65	46	237	314	339	+77	+40	13.6	10.7
/162	664	10	7	+11.9	+6.1	2.1	pk7: 8
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Bello (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	225/301/296	71	289	0	1	21%	7%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	62	-1.4	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	66	-1.1	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→50	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	58	-1.7	242/287/359	117	276	12	5	17%	5%	82	-0.0	243/286/377	134	275	16	5	18%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Dilson Herrera 2012 · A	18	46→56	39→50	50	47	218/290/315	98	283	4	13	23%	7%	74	-0.6	226/277/349	123	297	11	12	27%	6%	76	-0.4	254/305/388	134	310	14	13	22%	6%	92	+0.7
✕Ivan Ramirez 2010 · A	18	50	38→40	50→40	43	235/293/316	81	288	5	5	20%	5%	74	-0.5	244/294/308	64	287	3	3	15%	6%	72	-0.7	263/310/310	48	297	2	1	12%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	50	36→40	44→45	50	231/310/298	67	290	3	8	20%	8%	77	-0.3	208/273/281	73	275	4	5	24%	8%	59	-1.7	214/269/283	68	275	5	4	23%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	51→61	38→45	49→50	48	238/291/324	86	288	3	12	18%	7%	74	-0.5	234/279/310	76	290	3	12	19%	5%	66	-1.1	270/316/373	102	329	4	17	18%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	74	-0.6	214/320/283	69	272	4	14	20%	11%	78	-0.3	222/318/349	127	252	16	10	19%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	50	36→45	55→45	57	230/329/297	67	301	2	9	22%	12%	84	+0.2	231/325/325	94	288	8	10	21%	11%	89	+0.5	229/319/329	99	290	10	8	22%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Luis Santana 2017 · A	18	47	37→45	44→50	44	220/273/299	79	265	3	5	18%	5%	63	-1.4	249/318/344	95	286	6	10	14%	7%	91	+0.6	243/313/349	105	286	8	12	17%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→49	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	77	-0.3	209/280/296	87	296	5	4	29%	7%	65	-1.2	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→45	39→45	47→55	48	202/296/282	81	254	6	12	22%	8%	70	-0.9	210/296/305	95	253	9	16	20%	9%	74	-0.5	215/297/320	105	260	12	19	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→46	42→50	44→50	46	226/320/334	108	300	8	7	26%	8%	90	+0.6	212/310/340	128	285	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.4	217/303/361	144	274	17	12	26%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	43	196/259/277	81	254	5	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	212/289/284	72	268	5	9	21%	9%	66	-1.1	221/317/274	53	274	5	10	19%	11%	72	-0.3
✕Luis Alvarez 2008 · A	18	43	39→45	45	45	208/273/291	82	251	7	4	20%	6%	61	-1.5	229/300/339	110	282	10	5	21%	7%	83	+0.1	229/297/349	120	270	13	3	20%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	49→45	37→40	49→45	47	229/297/310	81	289	3	9	21%	7%	75	-0.5	215/287/285	70	278	2	8	22%	8%	65	-1.2	224/302/303	80	300	5	8	25%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Francisco Herrera 2012 · A	18	46	40→45	47→30	49	220/280/315	95	261	7	8	19%	7%	70	-0.9	225/284/324	99	267	9	5	19%	6%	73	-0.6	225/284/320	95	260	10	3	17%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44→50	38→45	47→55	45	210/277/286	76	271	6	9	24%	6%	62	-1.4	207/267/292	85	318	6	15	35%	6%	59	-1.6	229/275/344	115	283	10	21	22%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Andres Melendez 2019 · A	18	45	37→50	49→40	47	211/271/287	76	252	4	7	18%	6%	59	-1.6	202/269/292	90	272	6	5	26%	7%	60	-1.6	185/266/296	111	269	10	2	33%	9%	58	-0.6
✕Ali Sánchez 2015 · A	18	47	39→45	42→40	47	226/292/305	79	288	7	8	23%	8%	72	-0.7	218/267/274	56	278	3	6	21%	5%	54	-2.0	237/288/332	95	305	11	1	25%	6%	73	-0.3
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	40→50	50→40	52	216/294/311	95	269	7	8	22%	9%	74	-0.5	225/287/355	130	281	15	4	24%	8%	81	-0.1	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps