Ethan Storm

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 214 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1124ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ATB	25	14	96	6.09	3.94	20.5%	13.9%	—	K 15.2% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	—	—	0	5.54	5.54	17.0%	15.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	4	4	29	5.20	5.08	18.7%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTB	6	6	40	4.95	4.82	19.7%	12.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsIke Buxton (age 23) · Wills Montgomerie (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%17.0%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
2026	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.3%	6.09	3.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	15.7%	1.2%	2.7%	5.54	5.54	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	67	284	53	38	8	100%	6.7	18.7%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.24	5.12	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	61	257	51	31	7	100%	6.8	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.99	4.86	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	59	251	51	30	7	100%	6.6	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.86	4.79	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	58	243	49	29	7	100%	7.2	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.81	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	54	230	46	28	7	100%	6.8	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.90	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	51	214	43	26	7	100%	7.2	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	7	7	50	209	45	25	7	100%	7.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.95	4.94	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	29	122	23	17	3	100%	7.2	18.7%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.20	5.08	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	40	169	33	21	4	100%	6.7	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.95	4.82	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	47	198	40	24	5	100%	6.7	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	2.7%	4.82	4.75	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	49	207	42	25	6	100%	7.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.79	4.77	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	48	203	41	24	6	100%	6.9	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	46	194	39	24	6	100%	6.6	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.98	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	46	194	42	23	6	100%	6.6	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.89	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	305	1290	259	156	36	100%	6.8	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.89	4.48	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	170	102	24	100%	6.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.89	4.48	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		25	14	96	453	69	74	8	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	29	200	944	143	155	16	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 96 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.84 (+0.99)K% 20.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.740	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.91%	—	×1.180	16.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Storm (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	17.0%	15.7%	2.7%	—	4.93	19.5%	6.9%	188	-0.61	—	—	—
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	88
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	87
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	86
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	86
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	86
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	81
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	81
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	58	19.5%	12.7%	1.11	5.05
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*