Ethan Storm — OGILVIE

Ethan Storm P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 214 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%20.3%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TB	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.3%	6.09	3.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	98	412	88	49	12	100%	7.0	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.79	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	100	422	92	46	12	100%	6.7	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.58	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	101	427	95	43	12	100%	6.7	22.3%	10.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.46	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	101	427	96	43	12	100%	6.7	22.5%	10.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.47	4.43	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	100	421	94	43	12	100%	6.6	22.5%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	97	408	91	42	12	100%	6.9	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	3.0%	4.52	4.56	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	92	390	86	41	12	100%	7.1	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.69	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	87	366	80	40	12	100%	6.7	21.7%	10.8%	10.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.87	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	81	342	73	38	12	100%	6.7	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.6%	4.95	5.07	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	48	203	43	24	6	100%	6.9	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.93	4.84	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	70	296	65	32	9	100%	7.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.73	4.63	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	82	346	77	35	10	100%	6.8	22.3%	10.1%	12.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	88	372	83	37	11	100%	6.8	22.5%	10.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.48	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	90	380	85	38	11	100%	6.9	22.5%	10.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	89	376	84	39	12	100%	6.8	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.57	4.61	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	86	363	80	38	12	100%	6.6	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.74	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	81	342	74	37	12	100%	6.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.93	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	77	325	69	36	12	100%	7.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	711	3002	662	317	95	100%	6.8	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.32	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	186	89	27	100%	6.9	22.0%	10.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		25	14	96	453	69	74	8	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	29	200	944	143	155	16	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Storm (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	20.3%	13.6%	2.9%	—	4.61	21.8%	10.9%	298	-0.50	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	78
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	78
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	77
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	77
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	77
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	88	22.0%	10.7%	1.18	4.66
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98