Joe Scarborough — OGILVIE

Joe Scarborough P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	6	0	3	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	27.00	9.43	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	6	0	3	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	27.00	9.43	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	6	0	3	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	27.00	16.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	39	0	44	220	49	45	6	0%	1.1	16.4%	18.6%	-2.2%	3.0%	7.31	5.74	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	39	0	44	220	49	45	6	0%	1.1	16.4%	18.6%	-2.2%	3.0%	7.31	5.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	31	0	36	171	38	27	4	0%	1.2	22.2%	15.8%	6.4%	2.3%	5.50	4.51	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	8	0	8	49	11	18	2	0%	1.0	22.4%	36.7%	-14.3%	4.1%	15.12	8.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	43	0	45	190	44	22	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.60	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	46	195	46	20	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.43	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	47	197	47	20	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	47	197	48	20	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.30	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	46	194	47	19	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	42	0	45	188	45	19	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.1%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	21	0	22	93	21	11	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.60	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	32	135	32	14	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.53	4.43	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	36	0	38	160	38	16	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	39	0	41	173	42	17	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.30	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	40	0	42	177	43	18	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	39	0	41	173	41	18	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.1%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	0	216	910	217	93	27	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.01	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	86	25	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		40	0	45	226	36	44	7	0%	1.1	16.0%	19.5%	-3.5%	3.0%	7.60	5.84	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	1004	161	196	30	0%	1.1	16.0%	19.5%	-3.5%	3.0%	7.60	5.84	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Scarborough (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.1%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.45	23.5%	12.9%	138	-0.42	—	—	—
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	91
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Will Kincanon R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.2%	11.5%	1.6%	.284	3.77	22.2%	10.0%	58	+0.02	3.75	122	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	86
Scott Williams R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	20.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.256	2.89	18.5%	11.2%	42	-1.88	2.89	119	86
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	43	23.6%	10.5%	1.15	4.48
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22