Cristhian Duarte

P DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	12	12	45	6.04	4.17	16.2%	10.1%	—	K 11.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.63
2026	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	10	10	43	3.35	2.05	21.6%	3.4%	—	K 14.7% · BB 4.3% · FIP 2.84
2027PROJ	19	MLBTOR	6	6	26	5.36	5.36	12.4%	10.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBTOR	5	5	21	5.16	5.09	14.8%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control35Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWilkel Hernandez (age 19) · Marcos Pimentel (age 17) · Arlinthon De Dios (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%12.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	45	198	32	20	4	100%	3.7	11.0%	12.6%	-1.6%	3.4%	6.04	5.63	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	45	198	32	20	4	100%	3.7	11.0%	12.6%	-1.6%	3.4%	6.04	5.63	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	45	198	32	20	4	100%	3.7	16.2%	10.1%	6.1%	2.0%	6.04	4.17	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	43	176	38	6	1	100%	4.3	14.7%	4.3%	10.4%	0.8%	3.35	2.84	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	43	176	38	6	1	100%	4.3	14.7%	4.3%	10.4%	0.8%	3.35	2.84	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	10	10	43	176	38	6	1	100%	4.3	21.6%	3.4%	18.2%	0.6%	3.35	2.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	TOR	6	6	26	110	14	12	3	100%	4.3	12.4%	10.5%	1.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	42	178	26	18	5	100%	4.7	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.16	5.09	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	21	89	13	9	3	100%	4.2	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.16	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	5	21	88	13	9	3	100%	4.1	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.16	4.71	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	125	87	29	100%	4.6	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.16	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		22	22	88	374	48	32	8	100%	4.0	12.7%	8.7%	4.0%	2.2%	4.72	4.31	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	853	109	74	18	100%	4.0	12.7%	8.7%	4.0%	2.2%	4.72	4.31	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristhian Duarte (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	12.4%	10.5%	2.9%	—	5.09	14.8%	4.5%	42	-0.27	—	—	—
Wilkel Hernandez R 2018 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP	4.91	13.8%	10.4%	3.0%	.281	3.62	15.4%	8.3%	101	-1.29	3.34	587	92
Marcos Pimentel R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	17	SP	5.05	12.4%	9.3%	3.3%	.301	5.92	15.0%	5.7%	63	+0.87	4.79	113	90
Arlinthon De Dios R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP	5.15	13.0%	11.6%	3.1%	.339	3.73	16.1%	4.6%	36	-1.42	3.73	123	89
Reidis Sena R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	18	SP	4.17	13.3%	9.9%	1.7%	.282	5.08	18.7%	3.2%	44	+0.91	3.09	266	88
Blake Wolters R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP	4.58	13.8%	11.9%	2.1%	.308	6.15	16.8%	0.1%	150	+1.57	4.58	206	88
Ricky DeVito R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	10.2%	10.3%	3.8%	.317	4.18	21.6%	7.9%	90	-1.47	4.04	215	87
Jhon Peluffo R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	19	SP	4.56	13.5%	8.8%	2.7%	.293	4.89	13.5%	4.2%	257	+0.33	3.46	363	86
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	86
Keiber Arredondo R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	19	SP	5.86	13.0%	13.4%	3.9%	.292	4.00	16.0%	2.7%	93	-1.86	3.61	141	86
Julio Pinto R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	19	SP	4.41	11.5%	12.3%	1.3%	.299	6.27	13.7%	-3.1%	180	+1.86	4.41	368	84
Alex Scherff R 2018 · 5.19 FIP	20	SP	5.19	13.9%	10.0%	3.6%	.321	4.65	16.6%	5.2%	146	-0.54	3.07	291	84
Jonathan Heasley R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP	4.68	10.5%	8.8%	2.5%	.297	4.70	20.0%	11.6%	233	+0.02	3.72	607	84
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	84
Colin Selby R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	20	SP	4.71	13.8%	9.9%	2.8%	.277	4.54	18.6%	7.0%	148	-0.17	2.82	361	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	19	SP	4.51	15.5%	10.3%	2.6%	.208	4.91	17.8%	4.0%	112	+0.40	4.51	152	83
Jair Jurrjens R 2007 · 5.14 FIP	21	SP	5.14	10.7%	9.0%	3.3%	.213	3.64	17.2%	9.3%	520	-1.50	3.35	885	83
Edgar Escalona R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	19	SP	4.84	8.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.344	4.41	8.5%	0.7%	48	-0.43	3.65	146	83
Yermain Ruiz R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	18	SP	4.62	14.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.198	4.13	18.2%	5.7%	97	-0.49	2.98	143	83
Robert Cruz R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP	4.64	9.2%	10.4%	1.8%	.250	4.04	11.6%	-0.3%	68	-0.60	2.64	206	83
Jacob Miller R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP	4.29	15.0%	11.9%	1.7%	.254	4.20	16.0%	5.5%	301	-0.09	3.85	360	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	13.9%	10.3%	1.11	5.24
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*