Colin Selby

P Norfolk Tides

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	49	5	54	6.13	3.43	28.7%	14.6%	0.7	K 26.4% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.56
2024	26	MIX2 levels	43	0	46	4.50	3.10	30.1%	11.2%	0.8	K 27.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.43
2025	27	MIX2 levels	36	0	40	2.72	3.07	28.7%	8.8%	0.7	K 25.8% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.30
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	14	0	15	3.93	3.91	28.1%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	30	MLBBAL	29	0	30	4.08	4.16	27.0%	8.6%	0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	31	MLBBAL	30	0	31	4.28	4.40	25.9%	9.0%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs71

FB Velo68

K%56

CompsRyan Brasier (age 28) · Jumbo Diaz (age 30) · Cody Hall (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.93

FIP3.91

K%28.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%19.9%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p7429.0%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	11	11	48	202	41	16	4	100%	4.3	13.8%	9.9%	3.9%	2.8%	4.15	4.71	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	11	11	48	202	41	16	4	100%	4.3	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	2.0%	4.15	3.48	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	88	361	86	27	8	100%	5.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.97	4.30	—
2019	21	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	88	361	86	27	8	100%	5.2	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.2%	2.97	3.25	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	31	0	60	257	67	35	7	0%	1.9	20.1%	15.7%	4.4%	2.7%	4.37	4.90	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	31	0	60	257	67	35	7	0%	1.9	26.1%	13.6%	12.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.14	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	1	36	149	43	13	2	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	0.8%	2.27	2.82	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	1	36	149	43	13	2	3%	1.2	28.9%	8.7%	20.1%	1.3%	2.27	2.51	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	54	247	71	36	4	10%	1.1	26.4%	13.7%	12.7%	1.8%	6.13	3.56	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	5	54	247	71	36	4	10%	1.1	28.7%	14.6%	14.2%	1.6%	6.13	3.43	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	2.6%	4.50	3.43	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	2.6%	4.50	3.43	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	30.1%	11.2%	18.9%	2.0%	4.50	3.10	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	2.5%	2.72	3.30	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	2.5%	2.72	3.30	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	28.7%	8.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.72	3.07	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	5	45	202	49	20	6	14%	1.2	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.0%	6.20	3.99	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	14	0	15	63	18	5	2	0%	1.1	28.1%	8.2%	19.9%	3.2%	3.93	3.91	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	47	0	49	209	56	18	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.6%	18.3%	3.4%	4.08	4.16	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	41	0	43	182	47	16	7	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.6%	4.28	4.40	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	29	0	30	127	34	11	4	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.6%	18.3%	3.4%	4.08	4.16	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	30	0	31	131	34	12	5	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.0%	16.9%	3.6%	4.28	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	5	106	459	117	43	15	5%	1.1	25.5%	9.3%	16.2%	3.3%	5.04	3.92	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	9	200	867	221	81	28	5%	1.1	25.5%	9.3%	16.2%	3.3%	5.04	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		216	34	371	1583	343	174	38	16%	1.7	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.4%	3.91	3.98	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	18	200	853	185	94	20	16%	1.7	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	2.4%	3.91	3.98	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 26 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.30 (+0.39)K% 31.5% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.53%	—	×0.860	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.71%	—	×0.900	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷0.945	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 39 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.43 (+0.38)K% 32.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.860	27.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.63%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 30 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.75 (+0.15)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.83%	—	×0.860	26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.54%	—	×0.900	14.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.095	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 33 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.82 (+0.64)K% 29.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.71%	—	×0.810	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.100	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.084	×1.200	0.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 60 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.90 (+0.78)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.07%	—	×0.770	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.62%	—	×1.150	15.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.238	×1.250	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 148).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 88 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.30 (+1.04)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.82%	—	×0.740	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.180	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.009	×1.300	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKBristol Pirates · 48 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.71 (+1.23)K% 20.3% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.30%	—	×0.680	13.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.250	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Selby (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	28.1%	8.2%	3.2%	—	4.27	26.5%	17.7%	92	+0.36	—	—	—
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	80
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	78
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	76
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	75
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	74
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	73
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	73
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	73
Heath Hembree R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	29.2%	10.0%	3.9%	.291	4.73	29.7%	20.4%	117	+0.67	2.52	382	72
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	72
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	71
Steve Delabar R 2012 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	33.6%	9.1%	4.4%	.234	3.44	26.9%	15.9%	139	-0.38	2.43	229	71
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	71
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	71
Kiko Calero R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	28.0%	5.4%	3.0%	.206	3.33	23.1%	14.6%	154	+0.28	2.27	298	71
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	71
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	44	26.2%	9.1%	1.27	4.64
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*