Colin Selby
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 93
ERA4.08
FIP4.06
K%28.5%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%18.5%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p7429.0%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
SL+0.6 (17%)
SI (42%)
CU (26%)
FB-2.0 (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 11 | 11 | 48 | 202 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 13.8% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.71 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 11 | 11 | 48 | 202 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 4.15 | 3.48 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 17 | 88 | 361 | 86 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 2.97 | 4.28 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 17 | 88 | 361 | 86 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 16.3% | 2.2% | 2.97 | 3.25 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 31 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 67 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.1% | 15.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.37 | 4.65 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 31 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 67 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.1% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 1 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 0.7% | 2.27 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 1 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 3% | 1.2 | 28.9% | 8.7% | 20.1% | 1.3% | 2.27 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 5 | 54 | 247 | 71 | 36 | 4 | 10% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 1.6% | 6.13 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 5 | 54 | 247 | 71 | 36 | 4 | 10% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | 6.13 | 3.43 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 59 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 59 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.1% | 11.2% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 4.50 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 2.5% | 2.72 | 3.44 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 8.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 2.72 | 3.07 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 10.0% | 18.5% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 5 | 145 | 626 | 161 | 64 | 21 | 4% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.04 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 7 | 200 | 861 | 222 | 88 | 29 | 4% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | 4.93 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 216 | 34 | 371 | 1583 | 345 | 182 | 36 | 16% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 18 | 200 | 853 | 186 | 98 | 20 | 16% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Selby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.06 | 28.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.45 | 26.5% | 16.1% | 143 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 78 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 78 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 75 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 1.67 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.56 | 0.60 | 495 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 73 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.68 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 3.61 | 23.1% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.07 | 2.59 | 362 | 73 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.19 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 363 | 73 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 72 |
| Alex Powers R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.91 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .272 | 4.01 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 48 | +1.10 | 2.80 | 264 | 72 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 72 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 71 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 71 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.01 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 5.1% | .261 | 4.52 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 71 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.97 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.04 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.07 | 3.97 | 281 | 71 |
| Blake Wood R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 71 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.90 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 3.9% | .281 | 2.70 | 23.9% | 17.2% | 166 | -1.20 | 2.58 | 448 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 1.31 | 4.30 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |