Colin Selby — OGILVIE

Colin Selby P Norfolk Tides

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.05

FIP3.99

K%27.7%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%18.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p7429.0%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

SL+0.6 (17%)

SI (42%)

CU (26%)

FB-2.0 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	11	11	48	202	41	16	4	100%	4.3	13.8%	9.9%	3.9%	2.8%	4.15	4.71	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	11	11	48	202	41	16	4	100%	4.3	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	2.0%	4.15	3.48	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	88	361	86	27	8	100%	5.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.97	4.30	—
2019	21	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	88	361	86	27	8	100%	5.2	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.2%	2.97	3.25	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	31	0	60	257	67	35	7	0%	1.9	20.1%	15.7%	4.4%	2.7%	4.37	4.90	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	31	0	60	257	67	35	7	0%	1.9	26.1%	13.6%	12.5%	2.7%	4.37	4.14	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	1	36	149	43	13	2	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	0.8%	2.27	2.82	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	1	36	149	43	13	2	3%	1.2	28.9%	8.7%	20.1%	1.3%	2.27	2.51	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	54	247	71	36	4	10%	1.1	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	1.8%	6.13	3.61	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	54	247	71	36	4	10%	1.1	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	1.8%	6.13	3.61	+0.6
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	5	54	247	71	36	4	10%	1.1	28.7%	14.6%	14.2%	1.6%	6.13	3.43	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.6%	17.0%	2.6%	4.50	3.51	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.6%	17.0%	2.6%	4.50	3.51	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	46	196	59	22	4	0%	1.1	30.1%	11.2%	18.9%	2.0%	4.50	3.10	+0.8
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	2.5%	2.72	3.35	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	2.5%	2.72	3.35	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	40	171	49	15	4	0%	1.1	28.7%	8.8%	19.9%	2.3%	2.72	3.07	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	5	45	202	49	20	6	14%	1.2	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.0%	6.20	3.99	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	27.7%	8.9%	18.8%	3.1%	4.05	3.99	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	48	0	51	215	57	20	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	3.3%	4.14	4.18	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	46	0	48	202	52	19	7	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	3.4%	4.30	4.40	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	42	0	45	188	47	19	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.8%	15.0%	3.6%	4.49	4.63	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	30	0	31	131	35	12	4	0%	1.0	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	3.3%	4.14	4.18	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	32	0	34	144	37	14	5	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	3.4%	4.30	4.40	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	33	0	35	148	37	15	5	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.8%	15.0%	3.6%	4.49	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		133	5	145	626	158	60	21	4%	1.1	25.3%	9.6%	15.6%	3.3%	4.90	4.00	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	7	200	861	217	83	29	4%	1.1	25.3%	9.6%	15.6%	3.3%	4.90	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		216	34	371	1583	338	174	38	16%	1.7	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	2.4%	3.91	4.00	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	18	200	853	182	94	20	16%	1.7	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	2.4%	3.91	4.00	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Selby (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	27.7%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.39	25.8%	16.3%	143	+0.40	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	76
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	75
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	75
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	74
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	74
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	74
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	74
Zach McAllister R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	23.2%	9.0%	2.6%	.309	4.18	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.48	2.82	363	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	73
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	73
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	73
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	480	72
Alex Powers R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	27	SU	2.88	27.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.272	4.24	25.0%	14.7%	48	+1.36	2.82	264	72
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	72
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	72
Will Vest R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	28.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.281	2.69	23.9%	17.2%	166	-0.99	2.56	448	71
Curtis Partch R 2015 · 2.84 FIP	28	SU	2.84	25.9%	9.9%	1.2%	.345	3.12	21.7%	9.2%	60	+0.28	2.84	124	71
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	26.3%	9.3%	1.30	4.24
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22