Colin Selby
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.26
FIP4.10
xFIP3.11
SIERA3.02
K%25.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.6%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6565
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p7429.0%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
SL+0.6 (17%)
SI (42%)
CU (26%)
FB-2.0 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 11 | 11 | 48 | 202 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 13.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 17 | 17 | 88 | 361 | 86 | 27 | 8 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 2.97 | 4.30 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 31 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 67 | 35 | 7 | 20.1% | 15.7% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 29 | 1 | 36 | 149 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 24.1% | 10.4% | 0.8% | 2.27 | 2.81 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49 | 5 | 54 | 247 | 71 | 36 | 4 | 26.8% | 15.0% | 1.7% | 6.13 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 43 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 59 | 22 | 4 | 28.3% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 3.58 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 36 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 49 | 15 | 4 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 2.72 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | — | 10 | 43 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 28.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 5.20 | 4.04 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 27.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 25.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 34 | 371 | 1583 | 345 | 182 | 38 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.91 | 4.02 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 18 | 200 | 853 | 186 | 98 | 20 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.91 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Selby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 28.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.24 | 26.5% | 16.7% | 98 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 82 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.93 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.62 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.69 | 2.93 | 176 | 78 |
| Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.09 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .303 | 1.71 | 35.2% | 30.1% | 160 | -1.38 | 0.60 | 495 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 75 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 4.7% | .261 | 4.45 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.36 | 3.04 | 230 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.25 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.21 | 3.95 | 281 | 74 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.53 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.06 | 3.04 | 432 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Alex Powers R 2025 · 2.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.87 | 27.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .272 | 4.22 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 48 | +1.35 | 2.81 | 264 | 74 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 25.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 179 | 73 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .311 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.03 | 2.57 | 362 | 73 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 73 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 73 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 103 | 73 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .358 | 3.95 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.52 | 3.08 | 205 | 72 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.53 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.75 | 2.83 | 363 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.