Alex Scherff
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 70 | 289 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 94% | 4.1 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 5.37 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 16 | 70 | 289 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 94% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.76 | 3.89 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 129 | 583 | 112 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.4% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.81 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 129 | 583 | 112 | 55 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 4.05 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.8% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 1.6% | 2.45 | 3.17 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 127 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.2% | 10.2% | 26.0% | 0.8% | 2.45 | 1.74 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 0 | 27 | 120 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.27 | 6.07 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 0 | 27 | 120 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 4.2% | 5.27 | 5.08 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 267 | 73 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 8.6% | 1.7% | 4.14 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 267 | 73 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.10 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 91 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 43 | 315 | 1386 | 244 | 164 | 40 | 32% | 2.3 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.71 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 27 | 200 | 881 | 155 | 104 | 26 | 32% | 2.3 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Scherff (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 35 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 80 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 78 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 75 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 74 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 72 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 72 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 72 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 72 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 72 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 71 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 71 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 71 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 71 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 70 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 70 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 36 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 1.17 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |