Jack Kartsonas — OGILVIE

Jack Kartsonas P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%21.1%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	19	16	84	362	87	19	11	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	19	16	84	362	87	19	11	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	TB	15	13	67	297	77	16	10	87%	4.5	25.9%	5.4%	20.5%	3.4%	4.97	3.44	—
2026	25	AA RAW	TB	4	3	17	65	10	3	1	75%	4.2	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	1.5%	2.12	3.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	82	347	74	26	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.28	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	81	342	73	26	11	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.31	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	79	332	77	23	11	100%	6.1	23.3%	6.9%	16.4%	3.2%	4.19	4.12	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	75	318	73	23	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	7.1%	15.9%	3.3%	4.23	4.26	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	71	299	68	22	11	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	3.5%	4.35	4.44	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	278	62	22	10	100%	6.0	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.7%	4.52	4.64	+0.2
2033	32	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	61	258	56	21	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.0%	4.73	4.86	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	35	148	32	11	5	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.33	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	51	215	46	16	7	100%	6.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.2%	4.35	4.36	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	58	17	8	100%	5.9	23.3%	6.9%	16.4%	3.3%	4.24	4.17	+0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	59	18	9	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.1%	15.9%	3.4%	4.28	4.31	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	61	258	59	19	9	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	3.6%	4.41	4.50	+0.3
2032	31	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	58	245	55	19	9	100%	5.8	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.9%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2033	32	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	55	232	51	19	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.1%	4.80	4.93	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	381	1609	360	120	57	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	3.5%	4.43	4.10	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	189	63	30	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	3.5%	4.43	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		19	16	84	362	67	22	14	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	862	160	52	33	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Kartsonas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	21.1%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.24	22.0%	14.7%	242	-0.06	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	82
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	77
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	76
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	75
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	74
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	73
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	73
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	73
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	73
Connor Seabold R 2021 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP	3.72	20.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.247	4.05	19.2%	13.1%	224	+0.33	3.13	542	72
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	72
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	67	22.2%	7.4%	1.30	4.36
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58