Jack Kartsonas

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#993ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	19	16	84	4.39	3.41	24.0%	5.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.36
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.41	4.41	19.0%	6.4%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBTB	4	4	25	4.38	4.39	19.4%	6.7%	0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBTB	6	6	37	4.43	4.47	19.6%	7.1%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRyan Watson (age 25) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Markus Solbach (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%19.0%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	84	362	87	19	11	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	16	84	362	87	19	11	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	16	84	362	87	19	11	84%	4.4	24.0%	5.2%	18.8%	3.0%	4.39	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	6.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	67	284	55	19	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.2%	4.43	4.44	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	63	265	52	19	9	100%	6.3	19.6%	7.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.48	4.52	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	245	48	18	8	100%	5.8	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.4%	4.57	4.64	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	52	221	43	17	8	100%	5.8	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	3.6%	4.71	4.81	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	25	106	21	7	3	100%	6.2	19.4%	6.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.39	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	37	156	31	11	5	100%	6.2	19.6%	7.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.43	4.47	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	41	173	34	13	6	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.59	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	41	173	33	13	6	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	143	605	118	44	20	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.19	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	61	28	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.19	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		19	16	84	362	67	22	14	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	862	160	52	33	84%	4.4	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.8%	4.39	4.36	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 67 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.51 (+1.07)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.770	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.39%	—	×1.150	6.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 17 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.70 (+0.47)K% 15.4% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.810	12.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.62%	—	×1.100	5.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Kartsonas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	19.0%	6.4%	3.2%	—	4.53	19.5%	12.5%	188	+0.12	—	—	—
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	85
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	84
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	83
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	81
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	80
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	80
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	79
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	78
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	77
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	77
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	77
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	76
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	19.4%	7.0%	1.28	4.51
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*