Dalvi Nunez — OGILVIE

Dalvi Nunez P DSL Padres Gold

+0.2 WAR

Age 19 RHP 5'8" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.6%

IP32

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2030

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	12	11	37	162	40	24	1	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	5.30	4.55	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	—	32	—	32	134	30	14	4	22.8%	10.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	20	MLB	—	33	—	33	141	33	13	4	23.2%	9.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.30	+0.2
2028	21	MLB	—	35	—	35	148	35	14	4	23.6%	9.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.19	+0.3
2029	22	MLB	—	37	—	37	155	38	13	4	24.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.02	+0.4
2030	23	MLB	—	38	—	38	161	41	13	4	25.2%	8.3%	2.7%	3.99	3.90	+0.5
2031	24	MLB	—	39	—	39	166	43	13	4	25.8%	8.1%	2.7%	3.88	3.81	+0.5
2032	25	MLB	—	40	—	40	168	44	13	4	26.1%	8.0%	2.7%	3.80	3.75	+0.5
2033	26	MLB	—	40	—	40	168	44	13	4	26.3%	7.9%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+0.5
2034	27	MLB	—	39	—	39	166	44	13	4	26.4%	8.0%	2.7%	3.75	3.74	+0.5
2035	28	MLB	—	39	—	39	164	43	13	4	26.3%	8.0%	2.7%	3.76	3.76	+0.5
2036	29	MLB	—	38	—	38	160	42	13	4	26.2%	8.1%	2.8%	3.79	3.81	+0.5
2037	30	MLB	—	37	—	37	155	40	13	4	26.0%	8.2%	2.8%	3.84	3.87	+0.5
2038	31	MLB	—	36	—	36	150	39	12	4	25.8%	8.3%	2.9%	3.90	3.95	+0.4
2039	32	MLB	—	34	—	34	144	37	12	4	25.5%	8.5%	3.0%	3.98	4.03	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			12	11	37	162	27	30	2	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	5.30	4.55	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			64	59	200	868	145	161	11	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	5.30	4.55	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalvi Nunez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.8%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.17	23.8%	14.7%	105	-0.27	—	—	—
Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	19	SU	3.49	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.43	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.49	115	90
Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.14	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.12	3.11	187	89
Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.60	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.14	4.15	179	88
Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	19	SU	4.30	19.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.330	4.81	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.51	4.30	358	88
Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.94	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.06	3.11	213	87
Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	19	SU	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.93	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.47	3.32	206	87
Danny Dopico R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	87
Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	19	SU	4.92	21.1%	10.5%	4.1%	.303	4.44	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.48	3.05	442	87
Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	19	SU	3.56	23.1%	10.2%	2.0%	.333	4.59	17.4%	3.0%	146	+1.03	2.60	227	87
Sandy Lugo R 2028 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	86
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	20	SU	4.09	25.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.80	3.20	104	86
Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP	21	SU	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.29	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.10	4.28	247	86
Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	86
Felix Castro R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	19	SU	3.50	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.96	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.46	3.50	144	86
Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	86
Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	85
Alejandro Hidalgo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	19	SU	4.05	24.5%	12.8%	2.5%	.326	5.92	18.3%	1.5%	143	+1.87	4.05	209	85
Cody Palmquist R 2029 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	85
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	20	SU	3.71	23.5%	13.2%	1.7%	.286	4.77	17.2%	6.2%	157	+1.06	3.71	181	85
Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	19	SU	3.74	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.02	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.28	3.74	273	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$6M