Carson Laws

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 186 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	9	0	10	4.35	3.20	34.9%	14.0%	—	K 34.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.20
2026	23	A+MIA	22	21	89	6.19	5.13	27.0%	14.6%	—	K 20.8% · BB 16.8% · FIP 6.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	11	11	62	5.68	5.68	21.3%	16.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIA	6	6	35	5.42	5.33	21.9%	14.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIA	9	9	54	5.27	5.23	22.1%	13.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Angel Guzman (age 24) · Ray Gaither (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%21.3%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	5.3%	6.19	6.37	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	5.3%	6.19	6.37	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	27.0%	14.6%	12.4%	4.2%	6.19	5.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	11	11	62	262	56	42	9	100%	5.6	21.3%	16.0%	5.2%	3.6%	5.68	5.68	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	81	341	75	48	12	100%	5.8	21.9%	14.0%	7.9%	3.5%	5.42	5.33	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	81	341	75	46	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	3.5%	5.27	5.23	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	80	336	81	42	12	100%	6.1	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	3.5%	5.06	4.95	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	77	326	78	41	12	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	3.6%	5.03	5.02	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	74	311	74	40	12	100%	6.1	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.7%	5.10	5.15	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	69	293	68	38	12	100%	5.8	23.3%	13.1%	10.3%	3.9%	5.23	5.32	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	35	148	32	21	5	100%	5.8	21.9%	14.0%	7.9%	3.5%	5.42	5.33	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	50	31	8	100%	6.0	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	3.5%	5.27	5.23	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	63	33	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	12.5%	11.6%	3.5%	5.06	4.95	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	65	274	66	34	10	100%	5.9	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	3.6%	5.03	5.02	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	65	274	65	35	10	100%	5.9	23.7%	12.8%	10.9%	3.7%	5.10	5.15	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	61	34	10	100%	6.2	23.3%	13.1%	10.3%	3.9%	5.23	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	342	1443	336	187	52	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.9%	10.3%	3.6%	5.16	4.77	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	109	30	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.9%	10.3%	3.6%	5.16	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		31	21	99	446	99	74	22	68%	3.2	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	5.0%	6.00	6.06	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	42	200	901	200	149	45	68%	3.2	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	5.0%	6.00	6.06	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Laws (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	21.3%	16.0%	3.6%	—	5.17	22.7%	9.3%	241	-0.51	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	87
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	79
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	79
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	79
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	79
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	79
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	78
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	77
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	76
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	76
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	75	22.9%	13.4%	1.40	5.25
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Frank LaCorte ('75-'84, -4 WAR*)	2.5	61	25.0%*	12.0%*	1.43*	5.83*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*