Roy Rivero

SS DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1350ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	168	.246/.370/.319	0	8	36	—	.170/.261/.211
2026	18	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	176	.338/.424/.399	0	14	66	—	.237/.308/.276
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBKC	286	.220/.287/.290	2	5	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBKC	49	.223/.292/.303	0	1	71	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBKC	119	.226/.296/.315	1	2	76	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%98

K%95

Z-Con%94

wOBA71

wRC+68

Chase%46

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAyendy Perez (age 19) · Carlos Sepulveda (age 19) · James Beresford (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .285 / .288

PA91

HR0

K%21

BB%8

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	138	34	6	2	0	27	15	0	8	8	246	370	319	689	72	272	9	16	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	148	50	9	0	0	22	18	1	14	9	338	424	399	823	61	379	10	12	368	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	147	25	4	1	0	18	19	0	8	8	170	261	211	471	41	188	11	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	156	37	6	0	0	15	22	1	14	9	237	308	276	584	38	267	12	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	147	25	4	1	0	18	19	0	8	8	170	261	211	471	41	192	11	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	138	34	6	2	0	27	15	0	8	8	246	370	319	689	72	272	9	16	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	156	37	6	0	0	15	22	1	14	9	237	308	276	584	38	272	12	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	148	50	9	0	0	22	18	1	14	9	338	424	399	823	61	379	10	12	368	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	148	25	4	1	0	18	19	0	8	8	169	261	209	470	41	188	11	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	158	37	6	0	0	15	22	1	14	9	234	308	272	580	38	267	12	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	168	148	25	4	1	0	18	19	0	8	8	169	261	209	470	41	188	11	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	176	158	37	6	0	0	15	22	1	14	9	234	308	272	580	38	267	12	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	KC	0%	286	259	57	9	2	2	23	61	2	5	1	220	287	290	578	70	279	21	8	265	65	-12	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	KC	34%	143	130	29	5	1	1	11	30	1	3	1	225	293	306	599	81	281	21	8	273	71	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	KC	48%	245	221	51	8	2	3	20	52	2	5	1	228	298	319	617	91	283	21	8	280	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	KC	54%	356	321	74	12	2	5	29	75	3	7	2	231	301	330	631	98	284	21	8	286	80	-9	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	KC	57%	428	386	91	15	3	7	35	90	4	8	2	234	304	338	642	105	285	21	8	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	KC	57%	474	428	101	17	3	8	39	100	4	9	3	235	306	345	651	110	287	21	8	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	KC	57%	501	450	107	18	3	9	41	105	5	9	3	236	306	347	653	111	287	21	8	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	KC	56%	516	464	109	18	3	9	42	108	5	10	3	236	306	348	654	112	287	21	8	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	KC	55%	520	467	109	18	3	9	43	110	5	9	3	235	305	345	651	110	286	21	8	293	85	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.8
2036	28	MLB MLE	KC	55%	516	465	108	18	3	8	42	110	4	9	3	233	303	341	644	108	285	21	8	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	KC	58%	505	455	106	18	3	8	41	109	4	8	3	231	301	335	636	104	284	22	8	287	81	-12	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	KC	60%	493	446	102	17	3	7	40	108	4	7	3	228	297	328	625	100	283	22	8	283	78	-13	+0	-2	+5	+11	0.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	KC	62%	477	432	97	16	3	6	38	107	4	6	4	224	292	318	611	94	280	22	8	277	74	-15	-0	-3	+5	+10	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	KC	34%	49	45	9	2	0	0	4	10	0	1	0	223	292	303	595	80	280	20	8	271	71	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	KC	48%	119	107	24	4	1	1	10	25	1	2	1	226	296	315	611	89	281	21	8	278	76	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	KC	54%	193	173	39	7	1	2	16	41	2	4	1	229	299	325	624	96	283	21	8	283	80	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	KC	57%	242	218	50	8	2	3	20	51	2	5	1	231	302	333	635	102	284	21	8	287	82	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	KC	57%	268	242	57	10	2	4	22	56	2	5	1	233	303	339	643	106	285	21	8	290	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	KC	57%	283	255	59	10	2	4	23	59	3	5	2	234	304	341	645	108	285	21	8	291	85	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	KC	56%	291	262	61	10	2	5	24	61	3	5	2	234	304	342	646	108	285	21	8	292	86	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	KC	55%	288	259	61	10	2	5	24	61	3	5	2	233	303	340	643	107	284	21	8	290	85	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	KC	55%	283	256	59	10	2	4	23	60	2	5	2	231	301	335	636	104	284	21	8	288	83	-6	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	KC	58%	293	265	60	10	2	4	24	63	2	5	2	229	299	330	628	101	283	22	8	284	81	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	KC	60%	297	269	61	10	2	4	24	65	2	4	2	226	295	323	618	97	281	22	8	280	78	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2039	31	MLB CTX	KC	62%	295	267	60	10	2	4	24	66	2	4	3	222	291	314	604	91	279	22	8	275	74	-9	-0	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2901	2618	600	101	20	40	238	618	24	50	19	229	299	329	628	100	284	21	8	286	79	-64	+2	-4	+31	+63	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	134	23	4	9	53	138	5	11	4	228	297	327	624	99	283	21	8	286	79	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5609	5051	1164	193	34	80	461	1164	47	114	48	230	301	330	630	99	282	21	8	285	79	-119	+6	-7	+56	+114	5.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	134	22	4	9	53	135	5	13	6	229	298	326	625	97	281	21	8	285	79	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Royals Fortuna · 176 PAwOBA .363 → .266 (−97)K% 10.2% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.23%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	12.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.82%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.40%
Singles /BIP	31.54%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	22.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.92%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	4.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .363 → .266; ISO .061 → .041; BABIP .379 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Royals Ventura · 168 PAwOBA .314 → .221 (−93)K% 8.9% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.93%	÷0.952	×1.220	—	—	11.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.07%	÷1.097	×0.700	—	×1.022	10.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.14%	÷1.025	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	15.06%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷1.060	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	2.97%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷0.950	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.877	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 90, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .314 → .221; ISO .072 → .049; BABIP .272 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.5	2,993	45	52	233	299	336	+32	+24	5.0	4.6
/162	664	10	11	+7.1	+5.3	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Roy Rivero (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	50	60	218/285/288	69	279	0	2	21%	8%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ayendy Perez 2013 · A	19	42	34→30	48→60	51	196/282/251	55	252	1	12	21%	9%	57	-1.8	214/281/270	56	267	1	24	18%	8%	59	-1.7	224/286/275	51	279	0	33	18%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Carlos Sepulveda 2016 · A	19	47→45	34→30	49→45	44	221/271/268	47	283	2	8	22%	6%	54	-2.0	242/289/296	54	301	2	5	19%	6%	67	-1.1	234/289/273	39	298	0	7	20%	6%	59	-0.9
✕James Beresford 2008 · A	19	48→58	34→30	49→45	43	224/270/272	48	290	2	10	23%	6%	54	-2.0	240/287/281	41	306	1	7	20%	6%	63	-1.4	286/319/337	51	336	1	6	15%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Nolan Beltran 2024 · A	19	41→49	35→40	43→45	53	192/268/251	60	234	2	7	18%	9%	51	-2.3	199/272/282	83	250	6	6	21%	8%	59	-1.6	203/286/287	84	248	7	4	20%	9%	63	-0.5
✕Jorge Ruiz 2023 · A	19	50→52	35→40	51→50	47	231/286/295	64	270	2	13	15%	5%	66	-1.1	234/287/309	75	301	3	12	22%	5%	70	-0.9	231/285/303	72	304	3	13	23%	6%	66	-0.9
✕Livan Soto 2018 · A	18	43→53	34→40	47→50	50	198/266/247	49	248	2	9	20%	8%	49	-2.4	204/267/252	48	257	2	9	20%	7%	49	-2.4	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2022 · A	19	41	35→45	46→55	56	189/281/251	62	237	3	9	20%	11%	56	-1.9	216/292/302	86	304	6	14	28%	9%	71	-0.8	210/285/301	91	316	8	17	33%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Roynier Hernandez 2023 · A	18	41→51	34→40	46→50	55	191/273/241	51	235	1	8	18%	10%	51	-2.3	223/295/275	52	280	1	9	19%	9%	65	-1.2	252/319/319	67	324	3	6	21%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	19	41	35→40	46→50	53	191/283/246	55	262	2	10	26%	11%	55	-1.9	187/254/251	64	288	3	9	33%	8%	45	-2.7	169/235/228	58	266	2	10	34%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Daniel Brito 2017 · A	19	44→48	37→40	47→50	51	206/271/283	77	243	3	8	16%	8%	59	-1.7	212/258/287	75	280	6	9	25%	5%	54	-2.0	223/270/308	85	294	6	8	25%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	42	37→30	48→60	49	198/268/270	72	254	4	13	22%	8%	55	-2.0	197/293/251	54	252	2	24	20%	11%	61	-1.5	183/298/219	36	231	1	34	18%	13%	54	-0.8
✕Bengie González 2009 · A	19	42→52	34→40	51→50	47	195/267/246	51	274	2	11	28%	8%	49	-2.4	210/263/256	46	284	1	12	25%	6%	49	-2.4	252/303/348	96	305	4	12	18%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2014 · A	19	36→46	37→45	50→55	46	176/242/253	76	228	4	12	24%	7%	41	-3.0	231/280/336	105	295	5	13	22%	6%	74	-0.6	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Jakey Josepha 2023 · A	19	42→45	35→40	52→55	50	198/273/252	54	267	3	12	25%	9%	53	-2.1	193/262/270	77	318	6	13	38%	8%	53	-2.1	177/248/256	79	304	7	17	41%	8%	43	-1.2
✕Wilian Trinidad 2024 · A	18	43	35→30	46→55	52	199/284/256	57	272	2	14	26%	10%	58	-1.7	190/266/250	60	283	2	16	30%	9%	49	-2.4	171/266/225	54	250	0	26	28%	10%	43	-1.0
✕Jeffer Patino 2007 · A	18	43	36→40	49→45	49	203/269/277	74	255	3	8	21%	8%	57	-1.8	200/269/269	69	241	3	5	17%	8%	55	-2.0	195/251/259	64	233	4	3	17%	6%	43	-0.8
✕Offerman Collado 2015 · A	19	44	34→30	43→50	54	204/282/255	51	250	2	9	18%	9%	57	-1.8	203/266/253	50	239	1	9	14%	8%	49	-2.4	201/260/246	44	237	1	10	15%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Lexer Saduy 2022 · A	19	42	35→40	49→50	50	196/275/263	67	258	2	8	23%	9%	56	-1.9	197/273/267	70	301	4	12	33%	8%	56	-1.9	185/264/250	65	289	5	15	34%	8%	48	-0.8
✕Diego Velasquez 2023 · A	19	43→53	34→40	50	44	201/258/253	51	264	2	7	24%	6%	47	-2.6	243/310/328	85	313	5	14	22%	7%	83	+0.1	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Victor Padron 2013 · A	19	45	37→30	53→55	52	210/285/283	73	255	3	10	18%	9%	64	-1.3	214/278/259	45	264	1	15	18%	8%	55	-1.9	215/285/233	18	262	0	20	16%	9%	49	-0.8

Roy Rivero

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps