Lexer Saduy — OGILVIE

Lexer SaduyCF Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 23 L/L 5'10" / 148 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .281 / .332

PA100

HR2

K%27

BB%7

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	139	123	24	6	1	0	12	33	3	4	1	195	283	260	543	65	264	24	9	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	139	115	30	8	1	0	20	25	3	4	1	261	384	348	732	87	330	18	14	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	169	149	31	3	1	1	15	55	3	9	4	208	293	262	555	54	316	33	9	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	169	139	37	4	1	1	25	39	3	9	4	266	389	331	720	65	356	23	15	335	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	309	276	48	12	1	2	21	133	9	14	5	174	255	246	501	72	319	43	7	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	309	263	58	14	2	3	34	90	9	14	5	221	330	323	653	103	318	29	11	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	131	118	22	2	0	3	7	32	4	7	5	186	256	280	535	93	224	24	5	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	131	113	25	2	0	2	12	22	4	7	5	221	318	292	610	71	253	17	9	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	CLE	—	100	91	21	4	1	2	7	27	2	2	1	231	300	363	663	132	284	27	7	279	72	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CLE	30%	149	136	30	6	1	3	10	39	2	3	1	221	284	346	629	125	286	26	7	288	79	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2028	25	MLB	CLE	44%	256	232	52	10	1	6	18	66	4	5	2	224	291	353	645	129	287	26	7	294	83	-5	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2029	26	MLB	CLE	51%	330	298	68	13	2	8	24	84	5	6	2	228	297	366	662	138	287	25	7	298	86	-5	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.6
2030	27	MLB	CLE	52%	371	335	77	14	2	10	28	95	5	7	2	230	299	373	672	143	287	26	8	298	87	-6	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.7
2031	28	MLB	CLE	53%	395	356	81	15	2	10	30	101	6	7	2	228	298	365	664	138	287	26	8	297	86	-6	+1	-1	+1	+11	0.6
2027	24	MLB	CLE	30%	45	41	9	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	220	289	341	630	122	286	27	7	278	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2028	25	MLB	CLE	44%	113	102	24	4	1	3	8	29	2	2	1	235	304	382	686	147	287	26	7	284	75	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2029	26	MLB	CLE	51%	167	151	34	6	1	4	12	43	2	3	1	225	291	358	649	132	287	26	7	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB	CLE	52%	194	174	40	7	1	5	15	49	3	4	1	230	302	368	670	138	288	25	8	288	79	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2031	28	MLB	CLE	53%	211	190	43	8	1	5	16	54	3	4	1	226	297	358	655	132	287	26	8	287	78	-5	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	730	658	150	27	4	18	54	187	11	14	4	228	297	363	661	135	289	26	7	286	77	-19	+1	-0	+3	+21	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	134	24	4	16	48	167	10	12	4	229	299	365	664	137	290	26	7	286	77	-17	+1	-0	+2	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	2349	2114	454	85	12	45	172	665	43	64	25	215	287	330	617	115	288	28	7	277	70	-80	+3	-1	+8	+67	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	125	24	3	12	48	184	12	18	7	214	287	326	613	113	288	28	7	277	70	-22	+1	-0	+2	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Indians Blue	—	139	115	30	8	1	0	20	25	3	4	1	261	384	348	732	87	330	18	14	338	117	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2022	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	41	36	8	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	222	317	250	567	28	333	29	12	271	66	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2022	19	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	128	103	29	3	1	1	20	27	3	9	4	282	413	359	772	78	364	21	16	355	130	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	309	263	58	14	2	3	34	90	9	14	5	221	330	323	653	103	318	29	11	301	89	-4	+1	—	—	+9	0.6
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	131	113	25	2	0	2	12	22	4	7	5	221	318	292	610	71	253	17	9	283	75	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	830	20	16	228	293	364	+3	+8	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	16	13	228	293	364	+2.4	+6.0	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lexer Saduy (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	216/281/332	116	284	2	2	27%	7%	72	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Tim Wheeler 2011 · A	23	43→53	45→50	50	43	215/274/335	120	274	13	14	26%	6%	68	-0.5	237/291/367	130	317	13	13	28%	6%	83	+0.6	238/291/359	121	322	12	13	29%	6%	78	+0.2
●Blake Tekotte 2010 · A	23	43→48	43→55	50→55	47	213/273/320	107	259	10	15	22%	7%	63	-0.8	223/283/386	163	289	19	21	29%	7%	85	+0.7	215/274/386	171	284	21	23	31%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Nate Tenbrink 2010 · A	23	48→51	43→50	52→50	42	230/286/343	113	306	9	9	27%	6%	76	+0.0	230/297/370	140	307	13	16	28%	8%	87	+0.8	226/300/381	155	301	16	20	29%	8%	89	+0.5
✕Kody Clemens 2019 · A	23	46→44	44→60	50→45	44	225/283/343	119	292	11	8	26%	7%	74	-0.1	200/260/333	133	271	13	8	30%	7%	62	-0.9	227/284/442	214	256	27	8	24%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	41→45	51→55	44	215/279/319	105	286	7	13	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/259/301	94	296	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/200/219	54	252	0	15	33%	4%	4	-0.8
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	43	44→45	48→50	43	215/283/333	118	286	12	11	28%	7%	72	-0.2	206/263/326	120	268	13	7	28%	5%	62	-0.9	190/242/307	117	240	15	5	27%	4%	45	-1.1
✕Kyle Isbel 2021 · A	24	42→52	46→50	52→55	39	214/259/341	127	278	13	16	28%	5%	63	-0.8	228/286/367	139	290	13	18	25%	6%	82	+0.5	242/292/371	130	288	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Mark Shannon 2014 · A	23	43→48	47→50	49→50	43	218/265/352	135	254	14	8	21%	5%	69	-0.4	225/262/342	117	278	13	11	24%	4%	65	-0.7	227/260/342	114	278	14	13	24%	3%	60	-0.6
✕Matthew Spencer 2009 · A	23	46→48	45→50	51→45	40	230/278/354	124	298	13	9	27%	5%	74	-0.1	228/271/375	147	284	18	7	26%	5%	77	+0.1	219/262/372	152	269	19	7	26%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	46→45	43→55	51→50	43	221/285/334	113	307	9	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2	224/270/373	149	292	16	12	28%	5%	76	+0.1	218/260/373	155	277	18	12	28%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	41→40	44→55	49→50	45	201/281/320	119	294	11	8	33%	9%	68	-0.5	192/266/342	150	282	16	11	36%	9%	67	-0.5	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Jordan Patterson 2015 · A	23	42→49	41→50	48→50	40	206/271/300	94	280	10	13	29%	6%	59	-1.1	218/277/357	139	304	13	11	32%	5%	76	+0.0	212/271/361	149	298	14	9	32%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Ryan Boldt 2018 · A	23	47→48	40→50	53→55	44	226/284/323	97	296	6	16	25%	6%	69	-0.4	236/292/361	125	307	11	16	25%	6%	82	+0.5	227/279/362	135	313	14	18	31%	5%	74	-0.0
●Brett Harris 2022 · A	24	45→50	45→50	49→50	43	220/292/339	119	296	13	11	29%	7%	78	+0.2	243/315/397	154	291	18	10	22%	8%	102	+1.9	239/320/383	144	286	17	9	22%	9%	97	+1.2
✕Orlando Martinez 2021 · A	23	42→45	46→50	44→50	41	215/262/342	127	276	14	7	27%	6%	65	-0.7	217/260/340	123	296	12	8	30%	5%	63	-0.8	231/297/326	95	291	7	9	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2017 · A	21	46→47	43→50	50	41	223/279/337	114	308	10	11	30%	6%	70	-0.3	233/292/376	143	318	15	11	30%	7%	86	+0.8	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6