Nolan Beltran
SS Clearwater Threshers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKPHI | 113 | .234/.363/.372 | 3 | 2 | 47 | — | .160/.257/.250 |
| 2025 | 20 | APHI | 131 | .183/.266/.261 | 1 | 0 | 22 | — | .168/.227/.244 |
| 2026 | 21 | APHI | 405 | .272/.388/.382 | 5 | 7 | 81 | — | .235/.325/.323 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBPHI | 505 | .201/.284/.296 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBPHI | 121 | .207/.290/.316 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBPHI | 188 | .211/.294/.327 | 4 | 3 | 76 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 63 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 187 | 146 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 374 | 274 | 648 | 48 | 254 | 10 | 17 | 305 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | — | 128 | 111 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 297 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 108 | 356 | 17 | 12 | 350 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 94 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 234 | 363 | 372 | 735 | 138 | 275 | 19 | 15 | 339 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 115 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 266 | 261 | 526 | 78 | 206 | 14 | 10 | 240 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 335 | 91 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 55 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 272 | 388 | 382 | 770 | 110 | 308 | 14 | 14 | 349 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 187 | 156 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 167 | 286 | 199 | 484 | 32 | 182 | 12 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 128 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 181 | 246 | 224 | 470 | 43 | 223 | 20 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 160 | 257 | 250 | 507 | 90 | 207 | 27 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 119 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 227 | 244 | 470 | 76 | 185 | 18 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 353 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 75 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 325 | 323 | 648 | 88 | 275 | 19 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 187 | 156 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 167 | 286 | 199 | 484 | 32 | 193 | 12 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 187 | 146 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 374 | 274 | 648 | 48 | 254 | 10 | 17 | 305 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 128 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 181 | 246 | 224 | 470 | 43 | 228 | 20 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies Red | — | 128 | 111 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 297 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 108 | 356 | 17 | 12 | 350 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 100 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 160 | 257 | 250 | 507 | 90 | 206 | 27 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 94 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 234 | 363 | 372 | 735 | 138 | 275 | 19 | 15 | 339 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 119 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 227 | 244 | 470 | 76 | 198 | 18 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 115 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 266 | 261 | 526 | 78 | 206 | 14 | 10 | 240 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 353 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 75 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 325 | 323 | 648 | 88 | 284 | 19 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 335 | 91 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 55 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 272 | 388 | 382 | 770 | 110 | 308 | 14 | 14 | 349 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 187 | 159 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 164 | 286 | 195 | 481 | 31 | 182 | 12 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 128 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 179 | 246 | 222 | 468 | 43 | 223 | 20 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 99 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 162 | 257 | 253 | 509 | 91 | 207 | 27 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 227 | 240 | 466 | 74 | 185 | 18 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 355 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 75 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 325 | 321 | 646 | 87 | 275 | 19 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 113 | 99 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 162 | 257 | 253 | 509 | 91 | 207 | 27 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 131 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 227 | 240 | 466 | 74 | 185 | 18 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 405 | 355 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 75 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 234 | 325 | 321 | 646 | 87 | 275 | 19 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 505 | 448 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 98 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 284 | 296 | 581 | 96 | 239 | 19 | 9 | 267 | 67 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | PHI | 34% | 353 | 313 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 289 | 312 | 601 | 106 | 242 | 19 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | PHI | 46% | 408 | 362 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 79 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 293 | 323 | 616 | 113 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 52% | 443 | 394 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 86 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 295 | 330 | 625 | 117 | 248 | 19 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 459 | 409 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 90 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 214 | 296 | 333 | 630 | 119 | 250 | 20 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 463 | 412 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 92 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 297 | 335 | 631 | 120 | 251 | 20 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 461 | 411 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 92 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 295 | 330 | 625 | 117 | 251 | 20 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 53% | 452 | 403 | 85 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 92 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 292 | 324 | 617 | 114 | 250 | 20 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 52% | 441 | 393 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 289 | 317 | 606 | 109 | 249 | 21 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -14 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | PHI | 34% | 121 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 290 | 316 | 606 | 109 | 242 | 19 | 9 | 277 | 72 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | PHI | 46% | 188 | 167 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 294 | 327 | 622 | 116 | 246 | 19 | 9 | 283 | 76 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 52% | 229 | 203 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 296 | 335 | 631 | 121 | 248 | 19 | 9 | 286 | 78 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 249 | 221 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 298 | 338 | 636 | 123 | 250 | 20 | 9 | 288 | 80 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 251 | 223 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 124 | 252 | 20 | 9 | 289 | 80 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 250 | 222 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 296 | 335 | 632 | 121 | 251 | 20 | 9 | 286 | 78 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 53% | 240 | 213 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 294 | 329 | 623 | 117 | 250 | 20 | 9 | 283 | 76 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 52% | 231 | 206 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 290 | 322 | 612 | 112 | 249 | 21 | 9 | 278 | 73 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1759 | 1563 | 331 | 64 | 7 | 35 | 161 | 349 | 20 | 21 | 6 | 212 | 294 | 329 | 622 | 117 | 249 | 20 | 9 | 284 | 72 | -48 | +2 | -2 | +19 | +38 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 123 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 129 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 213 | 293 | 332 | 626 | 119 | 251 | 20 | 9 | 284 | 72 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4654 | 4127 | 858 | 174 | 17 | 75 | 430 | 908 | 56 | 61 | 23 | 208 | 291 | 313 | 604 | 105 | 247 | 20 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -104 | +4 | -4 | +40 | +80 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 119 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 60 | 127 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 207 | 290 | 307 | 598 | 101 | 246 | 20 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AClearwater Threshers · 405 PAwOBA .345 → .288 (−56)K% 13.6% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .345 → .288; ISO .110 → .092; BABIP .308 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 131 PAwOBA .236 → .201 (−35)K% 13.7% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.92% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.46% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 14.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×1.030 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .236 → .201; ISO .078 → .068; BABIP .206 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 113 PAwOBA .331 → .238 (−93)K% 19.5% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.47% | ÷1.042 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.04% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×1.008 | 16.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×0.999 | ×1.008 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | ×0.999 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .331 → .238; ISO .138 → .109; BABIP .275 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 128 PAwOBA .347 → .224 (−123)K% 17.2% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.19% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.72% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.09% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.032 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.981 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.008 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.046 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .347 → .224; ISO .108 → .061; BABIP .356 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Phillies White · 187 PAwOBA .302 → .223 (−79)K% 9.6% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.58% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 14.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.090 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.849 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 118, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .302 → .223; ISO .048 → .033; BABIP .254 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).