Nolan Beltran — OGILVIE

Nolan BeltranSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 160 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION264 act + 176 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .276 / .293

PA176

HR3

K%20

BB%9

BABIP233

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 58 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT58

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	187	160	31	6	0	0	18	28	4	5	3	194	291	231	522	38	231	15	10	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	187	146	33	7	0	0	31	18	4	5	3	226	374	274	648	48	254	10	17	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	128	117	24	3	1	1	9	30	0	3	4	205	262	274	535	68	261	23	7	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	128	111	33	5	2	1	15	22	0	3	4	297	381	405	786	108	356	17	12	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	113	100	17	3	0	3	11	29	2	2	2	170	265	290	555	120	206	26	10	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	113	94	22	4	0	3	17	22	2	2	2	234	363	372	735	138	275	19	15	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	131	118	19	4	1	1	10	23	0	0	0	161	227	237	464	76	189	18	8	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	131	115	21	4	1	1	13	18	0	0	0	183	266	261	526	78	206	14	10	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	PHI	—	264	234	49	9	0	3	26	53	2	6	1	209	294	286	580	77	256	20	10	268	63	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.0
YTD	21	A	PHI	—	264	225	55	10	0	4	35	37	2	6	1	244	351	342	693	98	274	14	13	319	102	+1	+1	+0	+3	+7	1.2
ROS	21	A	PHI	0%	176	157	31	6	0	3	16	35	1	3	1	197	276	293	569	96	235	20	9	260	57	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		237	—	—	256	54	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	PHI	—	264	235	49	9	0	3	26	53	2	6	1	209	294	285	579	77	254	20	10	268	63	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.0
TOT	21	A	PHI	—	440	391	80	15	0	6	42	88	3	9	2	205	287	289	576	84	247	20	10	265	61	-19	+1	+0	+5	+12	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	PHI	34%	363	324	67	13	1	7	33	72	3	5	1	207	286	318	604	111	242	20	9	274	68	-13	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2028	23	MLB	PHI	48%	434	387	82	16	1	9	40	86	4	6	2	212	292	328	621	116	246	20	9	281	73	-13	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.4
2029	24	MLB	PHI	53%	476	425	91	17	2	10	44	94	4	7	2	214	294	334	628	120	249	20	9	286	77	-12	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.7
2030	25	MLB	PHI	55%	494	441	95	18	2	11	46	97	4	7	2	215	295	340	635	125	250	20	9	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2031	26	MLB	PHI	56%	502	446	96	18	2	11	47	99	4	7	2	215	296	339	634	123	250	20	9	289	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.9
2032	27	MLB	PHI	55%	501	444	96	18	2	11	48	99	4	7	2	216	298	340	638	124	250	20	10	289	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.9
2027	22	MLB	PHI	34%	125	112	22	4	0	2	11	25	1	2	0	196	274	286	560	89	244	20	9	270	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2028	23	MLB	PHI	48%	210	187	40	8	1	4	19	42	2	3	1	214	293	332	625	118	248	20	9	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2029	24	MLB	PHI	53%	251	224	49	9	1	6	23	50	2	4	1	219	297	348	645	129	251	20	9	282	74	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	25	MLB	PHI	55%	270	241	52	10	1	6	25	53	2	4	1	216	295	340	635	124	252	20	9	284	76	-7	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2031	26	MLB	PHI	56%	279	249	53	10	1	6	26	55	2	4	1	213	292	333	626	120	252	20	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2032	27	MLB	PHI	55%	276	246	53	10	1	6	26	54	2	4	1	215	296	337	633	122	252	20	9	285	76	-7	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1411	1260	269	51	5	30	130	279	11	21	5	213	293	333	626	120	250	20	9	282	74	-42	+2	+0	+15	+40	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	123	23	2	14	60	129	5	10	2	212	291	331	623	119	248	20	9	282	74	-19	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	3505	3119	649	122	12	67	322	692	30	52	21	208	288	319	608	111	245	20	9	275	69	-124	+2	+0	+38	+99	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	120	23	2	12	60	128	6	10	4	208	289	317	606	109	244	20	9	275	69	-23	+0	+0	+7	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	187	146	33	7	0	0	31	18	4	5	3	226	374	274	648	48	254	10	17	305	92	-2	-0	—	—	+5	0.3
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	128	111	33	5	2	1	15	22	0	3	4	297	381	405	786	108	356	17	12	350	126	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	113	94	22	4	0	3	17	22	2	2	2	234	363	372	735	138	275	19	15	339	117	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	131	115	21	4	1	1	13	18	0	0	0	183	266	261	526	78	206	14	10	240	42	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,620	34	24	212	289	332	+17	+12	1.8	2.0
	/162	664	14	10	212	289	332	+7.1	+4.9	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Beltran (OGILVIE)	21	53→58	37→42	46→51	59	205/287/289	84	247	6	9	20%	10%	61	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Livan Soto 2021 · A	21	42→52	35→40	46→50	46	196/252/252	55	246	3	8	21%	7%	37	-2.7	207/267/298	91	283	7	11	28%	7%	55	-1.4	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	47	208/281/306	98	256	9	11	22%	7%	64	-0.8	203/257/317	114	247	12	9	23%	6%	56	-1.3	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
●Jordany Valdespin 2009 · A	21	44→53	40→50	52→55	47	209/262/301	92	243	7	12	17%	6%	53	-1.5	236/270/347	111	293	9	16	22%	4%	69	-0.4	256/296/403	147	298	17	28	20%	4%	92	+0.7
✕Bo Greenwell 2010 · A	21	49→59	38→45	46→50	49	229/281/315	87	264	5	9	15%	6%	65	-0.7	253/301/342	89	313	5	12	20%	6%	80	+0.4	261/309/348	88	325	5	13	20%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Gavin Cecchini 2015 · A	21	44→54	41→45	48→45	45	211/263/317	106	263	7	7	22%	6%	59	-1.1	242/291/336	94	288	7	5	17%	6%	75	-0.0	246/296/330	84	290	6	4	16%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Matt Cerda 2011 · A	21	49→54	38→40	51→40	50	233/294/322	89	281	5	4	18%	8%	72	-0.2	232/312/305	73	296	3	5	20%	10%	76	+0.1	229/320/288	59	295	2	5	21%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2023 · A	21	44→52	43→50	52→50	41	221/259/327	106	273	11	9	23%	5%	59	-1.1	206/261/312	106	261	11	10	24%	7%	56	-1.3	215/285/358	143	270	16	7	26%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Javi Vaz 2023 · A	22	45→50	40	47→55	50	215/284/311	96	267	6	10	21%	8%	66	-0.6	224/298/324	100	253	8	18	14%	9%	76	+0.0	221/296/312	91	246	8	20	13%	9%	68	-0.4
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Juan Perez 2013 · A	21	45→51	43→45	52→55	45	219/275/335	116	265	9	14	21%	6%	68	-0.5	207/247/305	98	270	7	17	25%	5%	48	-1.9	227/271/349	122	293	14	24	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Zack Granite 2014 · A	21	49→59	34→40	50→60	49	226/279/281	56	264	1	11	15%	6%	55	-1.4	234/282/295	61	282	2	19	16%	6%	59	-1.1	259/306/333	74	299	3	30	14%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	71	-0.3	200/293/314	114	279	11	5	29%	11%	72	-0.2	179/275/290	111	249	12	4	31%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Larry Infante 2006 · A	21	41→51	41→40	47→45	45	201/261/296	95	256	9	9	25%	7%	53	-1.5	222/265/308	86	289	6	7	24%	5%	56	-1.3	231/271/310	78	301	5	7	24%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Justin Sellers 2007 · A	21	44→54	39→45	49→50	50	209/283/293	84	251	6	11	19%	8%	62	-0.9	227/289/313	86	280	5	10	20%	7%	69	-0.4	234/296/318	84	290	4	9	19%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Andrew Aplin 2013 · A	22	42→52	44→40	48→55	41	212/249/324	112	258	11	12	23%	4%	54	-1.4	225/296/316	91	267	7	19	17%	9%	72	-0.2	233/311/317	84	277	6	23	17%	10%	78	+0.2
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2018 · A	22	46→56	37→45	49→60	48	219/277/289	70	279	5	13	22%	8%	56	-1.3	237/297/309	72	317	5	12	24%	8%	70	-0.3	253/316/365	112	324	9	21	23%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Zach Fisher 2013 · A	21	43	40→50	49→30	51	202/267/298	96	230	7	4	16%	8%	56	-1.3	225/276/348	123	279	11	3	23%	6%	72	-0.2	232/280/369	138	286	14	1	23%	6%	77	+0.1
●Boog Powell 2014 · A	21	49→57	35→45	48→50	50	228/284/287	59	269	3	9	16%	7%	59	-1.1	264/328/340	76	331	4	14	19%	8%	91	+1.1	274/330/373	99	330	8	16	18%	7%	97	+1.0
✕Dario Unda 2017 · A	21	47	41→45	44→45	47	227/282/331	104	276	7	7	20%	7%	70	-0.3	221/273/336	115	290	10	7	26%	6%	67	-0.5	209/250/353	145	267	17	6	28%	5%	58	-0.3