Nolan Beltran — OGILVIE

Nolan BeltranSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 160 lbs A HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.6 · 2032

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .298 / .349

PA127

HR2

K%24

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50↗55

PWR

37↗42

SPD

44↗49

EYE

51↗56

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.6	$25M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.5	$25M	+$24M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.3	$23M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.1	$22M	+$15M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+1.8	$19M	+$10M
Totals		$24M		$137M	+$114M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	187	160	31	6	0	0	18	28	4	5	3	.194	.291	.231	.522	.038	.231	15	10	.233	37	-13	-0	+0	+2	+5	-0.6
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	128	117	24	3	1	1	9	29	0	3	4	.205	.262	.274	.535	.068	.258	23	7	.241	43	-8	-1	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	113	100	17	3	0	3	11	30	2	2	2	.170	.265	.290	.555	.120	.209	27	10	.237	40	-8	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	131	118	19	4	1	1	10	24	0	0	0	.161	.227	.237	.464	.076	.191	18	8	.203	14	-13	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	42	33	9	0	0	0	9	7	0	1	1	.273	.429	.273	.701	.000	.346	17	21	.328	109	+0	-0	+0	+0	+1	0.2
ROS	21	MLB	PHI	85	76	18	3	0	2	8	19	1	1	1	.237	.318	.355	.673	.118	.293	22	9	.300	88	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
TOT	21	MLB	PHI	127	109	27	3	0	2	17	26	1	2	2	.248	.354	.330	.685	.083	.309	20	13	.309	95	-1	-0	+0	+1	+4	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	PHI	220	193	47	8	1	5	23	46	2	4	1	.244	.330	.373	.703	.130	.290	21	10	.315	99	-0	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.9
2028	23	MLB 28%	PHI	328	287	70	12	2	8	35	67	3	6	2	.244	.332	.383	.716	.139	.291	20	11	.321	104	+2	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.5
2029	24	MLB 45%	PHI	403	353	86	15	2	10	44	81	3	8	3	.244	.333	.382	.715	.139	.291	20	11	.326	107	+3	+0	+0	+4	+11	2.0
2030	25	MLB 60%	PHI	445	389	98	17	3	12	49	89	4	8	3	.252	.342	.404	.745	.152	.292	20	11	.329	110	+5	+0	+0	+5	+13	2.3
2031	26	MLB 77%	PHI	470	410	102	18	3	12	53	94	4	9	3	.249	.340	.395	.736	.146	.292	20	11	.330	111	+6	+1	+0	+5	+13	2.5
2032	27	MLB 92%	PHI	481	419	105	18	3	13	55	97	4	9	3	.251	.343	.401	.744	.150	.292	20	11	.331	111	+6	+1	+0	+5	+14	2.6
2033	28	MLB	PHI	483	421	105	18	3	13	55	98	4	8	2	.249	.342	.399	.741	.150	.292	20	11	.330	110	+6	+1	-1	+5	+14	2.5
2034	29	MLB	PHI	478	416	103	18	3	12	55	99	4	8	2	.248	.341	.392	.733	.144	.291	21	12	.328	109	+5	+1	-1	+5	+14	2.3
2035	30	MLB	PHI	470	409	99	17	2	12	54	99	4	7	2	.242	.336	.381	.718	.139	.290	21	11	.325	107	+3	+1	-2	+5	+13	2.1
2036	31	MLB	PHI	457	398	95	16	2	11	52	98	4	6	1	.239	.333	.372	.704	.133	.289	21	11	.321	104	+2	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.8
2037	32	MLB	PHI	440	384	91	16	2	10	50	96	3	6	1	.237	.330	.367	.697	.130	.288	22	11	.316	100	+0	+1	-4	+5	+12	1.5
2038	33	MLB	PHI	411	358	83	14	2	9	47	93	3	5	0	.232	.326	.358	.684	.126	.287	23	11	.311	96	-2	+1	-4	+4	+12	1.1
2039	34	MLB	PHI	367	319	74	12	2	8	42	86	3	5	0	.232	.327	.357	.684	.125	.286	23	11	.305	92	-3	+1	-5	+4	+10	0.7
2040	35	MLB	PHI	313	273	60	10	1	6	35	77	2	4	0	.220	.313	.330	.643	.110	.284	25	11	.298	86	-5	+1	-6	+3	+9	0.3
2041	36	MLB	PHI	256	224	49	8	1	5	28	65	2	4	0	.219	.311	.330	.641	.112	.282	25	11	.289	80	-6	+1	-6	+3	+7	-0.1
2042	37	MLB	PHI	193	169	36	6	1	3	21	51	1	3	0	.213	.304	.314	.617	.101	.279	26	11	.280	73	-6	+1	-7	+2	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6859	5993	1412	242	35	156	754	1466	57	111	33	.236	.327	.366	.692	.130	.285	21	11	.311	96	-28	+9	-38	+73	+194	21.5
/ 162G	—			650	568	134	23	3	15	71	139	5	11	3	.236	.326	.366	.692	.130	.285	21	11	.311	96	-3	+1	-4	+7	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	187	146	33	7	0	0	31	18	4	5	3	.226	.374	.274	.648	.048	.254	10	17	.305	92	-2	-0	—	—	+5	0.3
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	128	111	33	5	2	1	15	22	0	3	4	.297	.381	.405	.786	.108	.356	17	12	.350	126	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	113	94	22	4	0	3	17	22	2	2	2	.234	.363	.372	.735	.138	.275	19	15	.339	117	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	131	115	21	4	1	1	13	18	0	0	0	.183	.266	.261	.526	.078	.206	14	10	.240	42	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Beltran (OGILVIE)	21	50→55	37→42	44→49	56	.228/.298/.349	.121	.286	2	2	24%	8%	83	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Justin Yurchak 2018 · A	21	51→61	44→40	49→40	52	.249/.317/.367	.118	.295	12	4	20%	9%	94	+1.3	.228/.288/.319	.091	.284	7	2	21%	8%	69	-0.4	.273/.337/.381	.107	.337	11	2	21%	8%	103	+1.1
●J.P. Crawford 2016 · AA	21	52→58	41→45	48→50	53	.248/.314/.348	.100	.291	8	13	17%	8%	88	+0.9	.222/.296/.324	.102	.270	9	9	20%	9%	75	-0.0	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
●Kolten Wong 2012 · A	21	51→60	45→50	48→55	48	.248/.300/.374	.126	.278	11	12	16%	6%	89	+0.9	.251/.296/.362	.111	.291	9	18	17%	5%	84	+0.6	.270/.354/.410	.140	.305	12	16	15%	9%	112	+2.0
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	49	38→45	49→50	54	.230/.313/.315	.085	.291	5	8	21%	10%	79	+0.3	.213/.274/.290	.077	.279	3	7	23%	7%	56	-1.3	.202/.252/.280	.079	.255	0	6	20%	6%	40	-0.6
✕Colin Moran 2014 · A	21	48→57	43→55	50→30	45	.234/.283/.345	.110	.286	10	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	.246/.290/.349	.103	.318	9	3	24%	6%	77	+0.1	.271/.332/.429	.158	.324	19	0	21%	8%	111	+1.6
●TJ Friedl 2017 · A	21	48→53	42→50	51→55	42	.228/.286/.337	.109	.309	8	10	28%	6%	73	-0.1	.226/.293/.326	.100	.295	6	15	24%	7%	74	-0.1	.246/.337/.381	.136	.276	15	18	16%	10%	103	+1.8
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	48→58	39→40	45	51	.228/.304/.321	.093	.288	5	7	22%	9%	77	+0.1	.241/.330/.319	.078	.292	4	8	17%	9%	89	+0.9	.264/.349/.334	.069	.312	2	8	14%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	49	42→45	49→50	48	.238/.307/.349	.111	.292	9	12	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.225/.272/.314	.089	.289	5	7	23%	5%	61	-1.0	.225/.269/.312	.087	.288	4	6	22%	5%	55	-0.7
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	52→62	42→50	53→55	48	.250/.318/.360	.110	.306	9	11	21%	7%	93	+1.3	.269/.332/.397	.128	.319	12	17	19%	7%	108	+2.3	.268/.333/.391	.123	.317	12	18	19%	7%	103	+1.6
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	49→53	46→55	53→45	45	.236/.300/.372	.137	.327	13	8	31%	8%	89	+0.9	.251/.308/.410	.159	.313	18	5	25%	7%	102	+1.8	.253/.314/.408	.154	.307	18	4	23%	8%	102	+1.6
✕Alek Thomas 2021 · A	21	50→52	42→50	48→50	43	.241/.293/.352	.111	.314	8	10	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.243/.298/.388	.145	.306	13	11	24%	7%	92	+1.2	.243/.296/.389	.146	.295	14	11	22%	6%	87	+0.7
✕Jorbit Vivas 2022 · A	21	53→56	47→45	47→50	47	.262/.324/.402	.140	.294	14	7	16%	6%	107	+2.2	.237/.316/.354	.117	.267	11	10	15%	8%	92	+1.2	.221/.310/.330	.108	.251	10	14	16%	8%	81	+0.4
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→49	45	49→50	47	.245/.300/.368	.123	.296	13	11	22%	7%	87	+0.8	.232/.316/.354	.122	.279	10	13	20%	9%	91	+1.1	.227/.316/.346	.119	.270	10	12	19%	10%	86	+0.7
●Brandon Marsh 2019 · A	21	47→57	42→50	52→50	41	.223/.282/.334	.110	.330	9	10	33%	7%	71	-0.3	.223/.283/.328	.105	.333	8	13	33%	7%	70	-0.3	.262/.344/.424	.163	.366	16	16	30%	11%	115	+2.2
✕Luis Alvarez 2011 · A	21	48	43→45	47→45	46	.231/.301/.344	.113	.287	10	6	22%	7%	82	+0.5	.218/.273/.326	.108	.274	10	5	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.212/.264/.322	.111	.252	13	1	21%	4%	57	-0.3
✕Thairo Estrada 2017 · A	21	51→61	41→50	47→55	44	.246/.290/.344	.098	.294	9	12	20%	6%	76	+0.1	.254/.295/.350	.096	.300	8	9	18%	5%	80	+0.4	.270/.326/.420	.150	.314	17	21	19%	5%	108	+1.8
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2016 · A	22	46→54	45→55	55→45	53	.229/.307/.355	.125	.265	13	10	19%	9%	87	+0.8	.239/.318/.350	.111	.280	10	8	17%	9%	91	+1.1	.238/.339/.417	.179	.270	23	4	20%	12%	114	+1.9
●Jon Jay 2007 · A	22	56→65	40→45	50	49	.267/.320/.367	.100	.306	7	11	15%	7%	95	+1.4	.256/.306/.365	.109	.302	10	12	18%	6%	89	+0.9	.287/.347/.405	.118	.332	9	15	15%	6%	111	+2.1
●Gavin Lux 2019 · AA	21	48→58	43→50	50	46	.233/.290/.345	.112	.296	10	12	24%	7%	76	+0.1	.249/.309/.402	.153	.314	17	10	25%	8%	100	+1.7	.260/.330/.404	.144	.327	14	8	23%	9%	106	+1.8
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→58	42→55	51→50	41	.244/.289/.355	.111	.326	9	12	27%	6%	79	+0.3	.259/.300/.414	.155	.299	17	12	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.266/.310/.441	.174	.301	19	10	18%	6%	107	+1.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)