Carlos Sepulveda
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | INTLSultanes de M… | 250 | .304/.449/.402 | 0 | 12 | 146 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTLMexico Verde | 328 | .296/.419/.381 | 1 | 19 | 127 | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTLJaguares de N… | 55 | .277/.346/.383 | 0 | 3 | 97 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 185 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 354 | 308 | 662 | 27 | 331 | 14 | 9 | 299 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 365 | 332 | 103 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 310 | 366 | 373 | 739 | 63 | 352 | 11 | 7 | 333 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 125 | 112 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 274 | 214 | 488 | 18 | 234 | 15 | 9 | 233 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 41 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 324 | 390 | 378 | 769 | 54 | 364 | 10 | 10 | 351 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 261 | 200 | 461 | 50 | 176 | 12 | 12 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 448 | 379 | 92 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 57 | 75 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 243 | 346 | 285 | 631 | 42 | 298 | 17 | 13 | 293 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 244 | 198 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 227 | 349 | 288 | 637 | 61 | 274 | 17 | 14 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 239 | 203 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 305 | 410 | 438 | 848 | 133 | 355 | 13 | 14 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 305 | 263 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 213 | 319 | 293 | 612 | 80 | 260 | 19 | 12 | 287 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 275 | 225 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 280 | 400 | 422 | 822 | 142 | 311 | 13 | 13 | 368 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 63 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 355 | 283 | 638 | 38 | 289 | 14 | 13 | 299 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 193 | 150 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 127 | 220 | 12 | 15 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 284 | 234 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 405 | 393 | 798 | 90 | 350 | 13 | 13 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 250 | 194 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 49 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 304 | 449 | 402 | 851 | 98 | 358 | 12 | 20 | 385 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Mexico Verde | — | 328 | 260 | 77 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 296 | 419 | 381 | 800 | 85 | 336 | 10 | 15 | 355 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL | Jaguares de Nayarit | — | 55 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 383 | 729 | 106 | 333 | 15 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 192 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 234 | 286 | 255 | 542 | 21 | 284 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 365 | 339 | 100 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 295 | 338 | 354 | 692 | 59 | 345 | 16 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 125 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 242 | 200 | 442 | 17 | 231 | 22 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 41 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 268 | 256 | 525 | 26 | 288 | 15 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 448 | 402 | 84 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 106 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 209 | 276 | 244 | 519 | 35 | 269 | 24 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 305 | 276 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 192 | 266 | 254 | 520 | 62 | 246 | 23 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 63 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 323 | 286 | 608 | 36 | 288 | 17 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 192 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 234 | 286 | 255 | 542 | 21 | 298 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 185 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 281 | 354 | 308 | 662 | 27 | 331 | 14 | 9 | 299 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 365 | 339 | 100 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 295 | 338 | 354 | 692 | 59 | 352 | 16 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 365 | 332 | 103 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 310 | 366 | 373 | 739 | 63 | 352 | 11 | 7 | 333 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 154 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 248 | 214 | 463 | 19 | 248 | 20 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 166 | 149 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 303 | 255 | 558 | 27 | 268 | 14 | 9 | 262 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL MLE | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 261 | 200 | 461 | 50 | 176 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | INTL RAW | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 261 | 200 | 461 | 50 | 176 | 12 | 12 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 692 | 614 | 129 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 163 | 7 | 18 | 11 | 210 | 280 | 241 | 521 | 31 | 282 | 24 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 692 | 577 | 137 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 90 | 116 | 7 | 18 | 11 | 237 | 347 | 286 | 633 | 49 | 290 | 17 | 13 | 293 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 239 | 203 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 305 | 410 | 438 | 848 | 133 | 355 | 13 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 239 | 203 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 305 | 410 | 438 | 848 | 133 | 355 | 13 | 14 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 514 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 133 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 198 | 282 | 263 | 545 | 64 | 259 | 23 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 580 | 488 | 119 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 73 | 94 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 244 | 357 | 352 | 710 | 109 | 284 | 16 | 13 | 325 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 218 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 345 | 289 | 634 | 37 | 314 | 18 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 256 | 203 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 361 | 320 | 682 | 103 | 238 | 13 | 14 | 314 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL MLE | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 284 | 234 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 405 | 393 | 798 | 90 | 350 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL RAW | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 284 | 234 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 405 | 393 | 798 | 90 | 350 | 13 | 13 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL MLE | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 250 | 194 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 49 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 304 | 449 | 402 | 851 | 98 | 358 | 12 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL RAW | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 250 | 194 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 49 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 304 | 449 | 402 | 851 | 98 | 358 | 12 | 20 | 385 | 146 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL MLE | Mexico Verde | — | 328 | 260 | 77 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 296 | 419 | 381 | 800 | 85 | 336 | 10 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL RAW | Mexico Verde | — | 328 | 260 | 77 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 296 | 419 | 381 | 800 | 85 | 336 | 10 | 15 | 355 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL MLE | Jaguares de Nayarit | — | 55 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 383 | 729 | 106 | 333 | 15 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | INTL RAW | Jaguares de Nayarit | — | 55 | 47 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 346 | 383 | 729 | 106 | 333 | 15 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 197 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 228 | 286 | 249 | 535 | 20 | 284 | 20 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 365 | 340 | 100 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 294 | 338 | 353 | 691 | 59 | 345 | 16 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 154 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 248 | 214 | 463 | 19 | 245 | 20 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 692 | 627 | 129 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 163 | 7 | 18 | 11 | 206 | 280 | 236 | 516 | 30 | 269 | 24 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 515 | 102 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 133 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 198 | 282 | 262 | 544 | 64 | 246 | 23 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 256 | 223 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 345 | 283 | 628 | 36 | 288 | 18 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3452 | 2989 | 746 | 119 | 18 | 9 | 338 | 619 | 50 | 99 | 57 | 250 | 336 | 310 | 646 | 61 | 310 | 18 | 10 | 163 | -3 | -424 | -3 | +0 | +12 | +75 | -34.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 563 | 140 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 64 | 117 | 9 | 19 | 11 | 249 | 335 | 309 | 644 | 60 | 308 | 18 | 10 | 163 | -3 | -80 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -6.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 63 PAwOBA .297 → .273 (−24)K% 14.3% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.70% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 25.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .273; ISO .038 → .036; BABIP .289 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 305 PAwOBA .281 → .236 (−45)K% 18.7% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.46% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 19.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.015 | ×0.870 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.08% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .281 → .236; ISO .080 → .065; BABIP .260 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 448 PAwOBA .289 → .234 (−54)K% 16.7% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.74% | ÷1.009 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.041 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷0.967 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 23.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.964 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 93, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .289 → .234; ISO .042 → .034; BABIP .298 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 125 PAwOBA .229 → .200 (−29)K% 15.2% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.20% | ÷0.969 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷0.922 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 6.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 97, K 94, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .229 → .200; ISO .018 → .016; BABIP .234 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Cubs · 41 PAwOBA .343 → .256 (−86)K% 9.8% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 24.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .343 → .256; ISO .054 → .038; BABIP .364 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ASouth Bend Cubs · 365 PAwOBA .324 → .299 (−25)K% 11.2% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.23% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.12% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.55% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 29.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.036 | ×1.030 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.997 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .324 → .299; ISO .063 → .058; BABIP .352 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Cubs · 213 PAwOBA .294 → .238 (−56)K% 14.1% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .294 → .238; ISO .027 → .021; BABIP .331 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .