Kenyer Penaloza

P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 18 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	16	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	0	21	5.91	2.58	18.8%	8.9%	—	K 12.8% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.43
2026	17	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	11	37	3.16	3.18	15.5%	8.1%	—	K 10.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.01
2027PROJ	18	MLBKC	4	4	19	4.83	4.83	18.0%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBKC	4	4	17	4.68	4.61	19.4%	9.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJose Cedeno (age 17) · Deretd Parra (age 19) · Cristian Aray (age 17)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%18.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	0.0%	5.91	3.43	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	12.8%	11.1%	1.7%	0.0%	5.91	3.43	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	21	101	19	9	0	0%	1.9	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.0%	5.91	2.58	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	10.6%	10.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.16	4.01	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	10.6%	10.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.16	4.01	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	37	148	23	12	1	100%	3.4	15.5%	8.1%	7.4%	0.7%	3.16	3.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	KC	4	4	19	80	14	8	2	100%	4.8	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	35	148	29	14	4	100%	4.4	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.1
2028	19	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	17	72	14	7	2	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	17	73	14	7	2	100%	4.3	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	45	200	844	163	81	23	100%	4.5	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		22	11	58	249	29	26	1	50%	2.7	11.5%	10.5%	0.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.78	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	38	200	854	98	90	5	50%	2.7	11.5%	10.5%	0.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.78	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenyer Penaloza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	18.0%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.61	19.4%	9.8%	35	-0.22	—	—	—
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	90
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	86
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	85
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	85
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	84
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	84
Luis Araujo R 2015 · 3.80 FIP	18	SP-	3.80	16.1%	11.0%	1.2%	.342	3.37	15.7%	7.5%	62	-0.43	2.85	135	83
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Jose Espada R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	18	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.4%	3.1%	.234	5.09	9.6%	3.5%	53	+0.67	4.07	357	83
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	83
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.30	277	82
Yeison Santana R 2015 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP-	4.65	14.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.352	2.50	19.8%	14.5%	78	-2.15	1.61	129	81
Josh Winckowski R 2016 · 5.32 FIP	18	SP-	5.32	13.8%	7.8%	4.4%	.311	4.55	14.5%	4.3%	181	-0.77	3.58	650	81
Heisell Baro R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	17	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.196	5.91	15.8%	-1.4%	61	+1.54	4.25	105	81
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	80
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80
Nestor Lorant R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	17	SP-	3.75	15.5%	8.5%	1.6%	.393	3.55	22.9%	10.5%	67	-0.20	2.73	373	79
Albert Polanco R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP-	3.97	15.9%	11.4%	1.4%	.343	4.42	20.8%	4.2%	76	+0.45	2.22	135	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	18.9%	9.8%	1.10	4.73
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*