Josh Winckowski
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.92
FIP4.19
xFIP4.46
SIERA4.25
K%19.8%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%12.7%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.381
CH+0.9 (15%)
FB+0.7 (49%)
CT+0.5 (23%)
SI (19%)
SL-1.5 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 13.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.61 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 11 | 54 | 246 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 12.4% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 5.33 | 6.09 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 24 | 23 | 127 | 527 | 108 | 42 | 8 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 2.69 | 3.88 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 23 | 22 | 112 | 475 | 101 | 33 | 11 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 28 | 26 | 132 | 571 | 106 | 44 | 14 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 1 | 84 | 367 | 82 | 29 | 9 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 2.88 | 3.70 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 47 | 12 | 107 | 474 | 89 | 29 | 11 | 18.0% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.71 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 11 | 3 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.81 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 101 | 662 | 2856 | 490 | 231 | 77 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.16 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 30 | 200 | 862 | 148 | 70 | 23 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Winckowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.34 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 142 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 73 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.25 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .247 | 4.33 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 39 | +1.08 | 3.25 | 160 | 73 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 72 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 72 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 72 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 72 |
| Stephen Fife R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 72 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 72 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 71 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 71 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 71 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 71 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.07 | 22.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 28.3% | 18.0% | 75 | +0.71 | 3.07 | 185 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.10 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.29 | 3.10 | 120 | 71 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 71 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 71 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.