Josh Winckowski
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 96
ERA4.14
FIP4.20
K%19.5%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.381
CH+0.9 (15%)
FB+0.7 (49%)
CT+0.5 (23%)
SI (19%)
SL-1.5 (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 60% | 2.7 | 13.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.61 | 5.32 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 5 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 60% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 3.98 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 11 | 54 | 246 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 92% | 4.5 | 12.4% | 12.2% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 5.33 | 6.09 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 12 | 11 | 54 | 246 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 4.69 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 127 | 527 | 108 | 42 | 8 | 96% | 5.3 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 127 | 527 | 108 | 42 | 8 | 96% | 5.3 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 2.69 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 112 | 475 | 101 | 33 | 11 | 96% | 4.9 | 16.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.59 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 112 | 475 | 101 | 33 | 11 | 96% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 3.94 | 3.46 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 132 | 571 | 106 | 44 | 14 | 93% | 4.7 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 132 | 571 | 106 | 44 | 14 | 93% | 4.7 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 3.87 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 1 | 84 | 367 | 82 | 29 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 2.88 | 3.55 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 1 | 84 | 367 | 82 | 29 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 2.88 | 3.57 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 12 | 107 | 474 | 89 | 29 | 11 | 26% | 2.3 | 18.0% | 6.2% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.63 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 12 | 107 | 474 | 89 | 29 | 11 | 26% | 2.3 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.58 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 3 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 27% | 2.9 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 2.81 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 3 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 27% | 2.9 | 20.5% | 5.3% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 2.81 | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 21 | 285 | 1250 | 228 | 96 | 34 | 13% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 15 | 200 | 878 | 160 | 67 | 24 | 13% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 210 | 101 | 662 | 2856 | 490 | 231 | 76 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.14 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 30 | 200 | 862 | 148 | 70 | 23 | 48% | 3.2 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Winckowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.2% | 93 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 68 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 67 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 66 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 66 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 66 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 64 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 63 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 62 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2029 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 62 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 62 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 62 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 61 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 61 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 61 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 61 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 61 |
| John O'Reilly R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.22 | 17.0% | 6.7% | 1.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 346 | 61 |
| Max Beatty R 2024 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 60 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 60 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 4.28 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |