Josh Winckowski — OGILVIE

Josh Winckowski P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.16

FIP4.21

K%19.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.381

CH+0.9 (15%)

FB+0.7 (49%)

CT+0.5 (23%)

SI (19%)

SL-1.5 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	14	64	13	4	2	60%	2.7	13.8%	7.8%	6.0%	4.4%	4.61	5.32	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	5	3	14	64	13	4	2	60%	2.7	20.3%	6.2%	14.1%	3.1%	4.61	3.98	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	11	54	246	45	24	8	92%	4.5	12.4%	12.2%	0.2%	4.6%	5.33	6.09	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	12	11	54	246	45	24	8	92%	4.5	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	3.3%	5.33	4.69	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	127	527	108	42	8	96%	5.3	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	1.7%	2.69	3.89	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	127	527	108	42	8	96%	5.3	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	1.5%	2.69	3.21	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	112	475	101	33	11	96%	4.9	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.37	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	112	475	101	33	11	96%	4.9	21.3%	6.9%	14.3%	2.3%	3.94	3.46	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	132	571	106	44	14	93%	4.7	17.3%	7.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.92	4.07	+1.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	132	571	106	44	14	93%	4.7	18.6%	7.7%	10.9%	2.5%	4.92	3.87	+1.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	60	1	84	367	82	29	9	2%	1.4	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.88	3.59	+1.0
2023	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	60	1	84	367	82	29	9	2%	1.4	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.88	3.59	+1.0
2023	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	60	1	84	367	82	29	9	2%	1.4	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.88	3.57	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	17.7%	6.0%	11.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.68	+1.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	17.7%	6.0%	11.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.68	+1.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	12	107	474	89	29	11	26%	2.3	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	2.3%	3.77	3.58	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	18.1%	5.2%	13.0%	2.5%	2.81	3.62	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	18.1%	5.2%	13.0%	2.5%	2.81	3.62	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	3	32	132	27	7	3	27%	2.9	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	2.3%	2.81	3.29	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	21	242	1071	195	83	29	17%	2.0	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.07	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	3	8	34	10	3	1	75%	2.1	—	—	—	—	1.08	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	4	3	8	34	10	3	1	75%	2.1	—	—	—	—	1.08	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	TOR	3	2	6	27	8	3	1	67%	2.1	29.6%	11.1%	18.5%	3.7%	1.42	4.04	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TOR	1	1	2	7	2	0	0	100%	2.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TOR	46	0	48	202	38	14	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	7.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.38	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	43	0	45	190	34	14	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TOR	13	0	14	59	11	4	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.38	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	22	0	23	97	17	7	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.4%	10.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	21	279	1227	223	94	34	13%	1.8	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.22	4.04	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		112	15	200	879	160	67	24	13%	1.8	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.7%	4.22	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		214	104	671	2890	498	233	77	49%	3.1	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	2.7%	3.77	4.13	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	31	200	862	148	69	23	49%	3.1	17.2%	8.0%	9.2%	2.7%	3.77	4.13	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Winckowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	19.3%	6.9%	2.7%	—	4.48	18.3%	11.0%	93	+0.27	—	—	—
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	68
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	68
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	68
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	66
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	66
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	66
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	65
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	64
Chris Bassitt R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	28	SW	3.83	17.5%	9.8%	1.7%	.313	3.80	21.7%	14.1%	336	-0.03	3.02	1,554	63
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	63
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	63
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	62
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	62
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	62
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	61
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	61
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	61
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	61
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	61
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.7%	7.2%	1.11	4.30
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66