Jhonger Ochoa

SS DSL Tigers 1

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2119ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Tigers 1	164	.248/.383/.301	0	14	27	—	.144/.265/.173
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBDET	274	.195/.273/.260	1	6	54	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBDET	27	.197/.275/.268	0	1	59	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBDET	83	.201/.280/.280	1	2	63	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Z-Con%68

Speed61

Chase%57

Whiff%52

wOBA51

K%38

CompsEsteban Mejia (age 19) · Luis Andujar (age 19) · Jesus Castillo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .270 / .257

PA48

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	133	33	7	0	0	18	39	11	14	4	248	383	301	683	53	344	24	11	324	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	139	20	4	0	0	12	48	11	14	4	144	265	173	438	29	211	29	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	139	20	4	0	0	12	48	11	14	4	144	265	173	438	29	215	29	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	133	33	7	0	0	18	39	11	14	4	248	383	301	683	53	344	24	11	324	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	140	20	4	0	0	12	48	11	14	4	143	265	171	437	29	211	29	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	164	140	20	4	0	0	12	48	11	14	4	143	265	171	437	29	211	29	7	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	DET	0%	274	246	47	8	1	1	20	76	6	6	1	195	273	260	532	64	273	28	7	248	54	-15	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	DET	34%	78	70	14	2	0	1	6	21	2	2	0	200	278	273	552	73	276	27	8	255	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	DET	48%	171	152	31	5	1	2	13	46	4	4	1	204	283	285	568	81	278	27	8	262	63	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	DET	54%	284	254	52	9	1	3	21	76	7	7	1	208	286	296	582	88	279	27	7	268	67	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	DET	57%	381	340	72	13	2	5	29	101	9	9	2	211	289	305	594	94	281	27	8	272	70	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	DET	57%	444	397	84	15	2	6	34	116	10	11	2	214	292	313	605	99	282	26	8	276	73	-14	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	DET	57%	481	430	92	16	3	7	37	126	11	12	2	214	292	314	606	100	282	26	8	277	74	-15	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	DET	56%	501	447	97	17	3	8	38	131	11	12	3	214	292	315	607	101	282	26	8	277	74	-16	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	DET	55%	510	455	98	17	3	8	39	134	11	12	3	213	291	312	604	99	282	26	8	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	DET	55%	510	455	97	17	3	7	39	135	11	11	3	212	289	308	597	96	281	26	8	273	71	-18	+1	-1	+5	+11	-0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	DET	58%	500	447	93	16	2	7	38	134	11	11	3	209	287	302	589	93	280	27	8	270	69	-19	+1	-1	+5	+11	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	DET	34%	27	24	5	1	0	0	2	7	1	1	0	197	275	268	544	71	272	26	7	252	59	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	DET	48%	83	75	15	3	0	1	6	22	2	2	0	201	280	280	559	79	273	27	7	259	63	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	DET	54%	154	137	29	5	1	2	12	41	4	4	1	205	283	290	573	85	275	27	8	264	67	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	DET	57%	216	193	40	7	1	3	16	57	5	5	1	208	286	299	585	91	277	26	7	268	70	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	DET	57%	251	224	47	8	1	4	19	66	6	6	1	210	289	306	595	96	278	26	8	272	73	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	DET	57%	272	243	51	9	1	4	21	71	6	7	1	211	289	308	596	97	278	26	8	273	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	DET	56%	283	253	52	9	1	4	22	74	6	7	1	211	289	308	597	97	278	26	8	273	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	DET	55%	283	253	52	9	1	4	22	74	6	7	1	210	288	306	594	96	277	26	8	272	73	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	DET	55%	280	251	52	9	1	4	21	74	6	6	1	208	286	301	588	93	277	26	8	269	71	-10	+1	-0	+3	+6	-0.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	DET	58%	290	260	53	9	1	4	22	78	6	6	1	206	284	296	579	90	275	27	8	266	69	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2139	1913	396	69	8	30	163	564	48	51	8	207	286	298	584	91	276	26	8	269	69	-74	+7	-1	+23	+46	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	120	21	2	9	50	171	15	15	2	207	286	296	582	90	275	26	8	269	69	-22	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4072	3630	757	132	20	54	309	1081	99	106	24	209	289	301	589	92	279	27	8	270	69	-136	+10	-2	+42	+85	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	121	21	3	9	49	173	16	17	4	209	288	302	591	93	280	27	8	270	69	-23	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Tigers 1 · 164 PAwOBA .321 → .208 (−112)K% 23.8% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.78%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.98%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.55%
HBP% /PA	6.71%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.73%
Singles /BIP	27.66%	÷1.045	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	17.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.45%	÷0.999	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	4.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.102	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷3.212	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 542, 1B 109, 2B 100, 3B 120, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .208; ISO .053 → .031; BABIP .344 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,186	30	52	212	287	308	+23	+18	1.4	1.4
/162	664	9	16	+7.1	+5.5	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhonger Ochoa (OGILVIE)	19	35	20	60	40	194/270/257	64	273	0	1	28%	7%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Esteban Mejia 2024 · A	19	39	36→40	55→50	41	188/242/257	68	263	3	15	28%	6%	41	-3.0	199/263/280	81	297	6	14	32%	7%	55	-1.9	196/265/273	77	287	7	15	32%	7%	52	-1.1
✕Luis Andujar 2019 · A	19	40	36→30	53→50	41	189/245/254	65	270	3	9	30%	6%	42	-2.9	201/270/270	69	272	3	10	25%	8%	55	-1.9	192/273/252	60	253	1	12	22%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	40→43	34→30	51→50	45	189/256/237	48	251	2	16	24%	7%	42	-2.9	211/305/254	43	285	1	19	23%	10%	66	-1.1	200/318/229	29	278	1	24	24%	13%	64	-0.5
✕Heiker Meneses 2010 · A	19	35→45	34→40	56→55	47	166/264/218	52	252	2	18	31%	9%	43	-2.8	207/263/280	73	304	4	18	31%	5%	55	-2.0	236/284/314	78	342	3	18	30%	4%	66	-0.8
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	39	37→40	54→50	46	185/258/260	75	249	3	18	26%	8%	49	-2.4	204/270/286	82	298	5	9	31%	7%	59	-1.7	199/271/269	69	303	4	7	33%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Félix Amparo 2024 · A	18	39	34→30	54→55	38	186/235/239	53	245	2	14	24%	4%	34	-3.5	200/260/271	71	244	5	20	19%	5%	52	-2.2	204/270/265	61	251	5	26	19%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	39	36→40	52→55	45	184/248/252	68	235	3	13	22%	6%	43	-2.8	196/262/276	80	267	6	17	27%	7%	54	-2.0	194/268/275	82	258	8	24	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Fernando Kelli 2017 · A	19	41	34→30	50→65	41	191/254/234	43	274	2	22	29%	6%	41	-3.0	204/288/270	66	270	3	31	24%	8%	63	-1.3	194/297/258	65	249	3	51	21%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Braulio Vasquez 2018 · A	19	47	34→40	52→65	44	215/281/268	53	304	1	15	28%	7%	59	-1.7	198/257/271	73	304	5	8	34%	6%	51	-2.3	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Alexander Benua 2023 · A	19	39	35→40	54→55	41	182/256/244	62	268	2	19	31%	6%	45	-2.7	193/260/277	84	296	6	14	34%	6%	53	-2.1	183/250/274	91	292	7	12	37%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Franklin Torres 2016 · A	19	45→41	34→40	52→50	43	207/265/260	53	282	1	12	26%	6%	51	-2.3	211/260/284	73	273	5	8	23%	6%	54	-2.0	215/266/298	84	270	7	7	22%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Ryan Burrowes 2024 · A	19	40→45	36→40	52→60	40	188/258/259	71	285	3	14	33%	6%	49	-2.4	197/264/267	70	320	5	25	37%	7%	53	-2.1	200/271/277	77	308	7	32	35%	7%	56	-1.4
✕Jesus Hernandez 2023 · A	19	42	35→40	52→55	50	200/266/258	58	248	3	15	20%	8%	51	-2.3	194/274/273	79	271	5	15	28%	10%	58	-1.7	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2016 · A	19	40	36→40	52→60	42	182/257/247	65	301	3	18	37%	8%	46	-2.6	181/250/258	77	274	5	14	33%	8%	45	-2.7	159/233/232	73	231	6	16	31%	8%	32	-1.2
✕Jose Rosario 2011 · A	19	41	38→40	50	42	199/262/275	76	274	5	10	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/261/320	106	270	10	12	24%	4%	63	-1.3	230/277/334	104	276	9	10	19%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	37	37→40	52→55	39	182/236/252	70	264	4	14	31%	6%	38	-3.2	194/241/254	60	283	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.1	183/218/203	20	254	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	38	35→30	48→50	47	182/254/242	60	245	3	12	26%	8%	43	-2.8	189/250/229	40	228	1	14	16%	7%	38	-3.2	191/256/205	14	227	0	12	15%	8%	33	-1.1
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	37	35→30	49→55	47	176/246/232	56	244	2	15	27%	8%	38	-3.2	191/286/234	43	258	1	14	23%	11%	55	-2.0	192/299/217	25	248	0	17	20%	12%	55	-0.6

Jhonger Ochoa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps