Félix Amparo
SS Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 194 | .313/.398/.503 | 6 | 24 | 52 | — | .198/.280/.305 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKBAL | 122 | .260/.364/.337 | 1 | 10 | 45 | — | .198/.264/.261 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/A/ROKBAL | 286 | .259/.349/.312 | 1 | 20 | 58 | — | .227/.299/.270 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBAL | 396 | .217/.278/.298 | 4 | 9 | 64 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 77 | .225/.287/.323 | 1 | 2 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 153 | .229/.292/.336 | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 36
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | — | 206 | 187 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 257 | 315 | 316 | 631 | 59 | 322 | 19 | 3 | 286 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 163 | 51 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 313 | 398 | 503 | 901 | 190 | 304 | 8 | 7 | 384 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 104 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 260 | 364 | 337 | 700 | 77 | 295 | 12 | 14 | 322 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 22 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 294 | 455 | 294 | 749 | 417 | 23 | 23 | 364 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 220 | 194 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 42 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 268 | 340 | 325 | 664 | 57 | 329 | 19 | 5 | 301 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 44 | 36 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 341 | 250 | 591 | 56 | 250 | 18 | 18 | 288 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 206 | 189 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 164 | 222 | 196 | 417 | 32 | 208 | 23 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 167 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 198 | 280 | 305 | 585 | 108 | 180 | 10 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 264 | 261 | 526 | 63 | 240 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 22 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 364 | 263 | 627 | 378 | 32 | 14 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 220 | 197 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 244 | 307 | 294 | 601 | 51 | 315 | 26 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 44 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 128 | 227 | 154 | 381 | 26 | 197 | 27 | 11 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 206 | 189 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 164 | 222 | 196 | 417 | 32 | 215 | 23 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Black | — | 206 | 187 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 257 | 315 | 316 | 631 | 59 | 322 | 19 | 3 | 286 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 167 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 198 | 280 | 305 | 585 | 108 | 199 | 10 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 163 | 51 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 313 | 398 | 503 | 901 | 190 | 304 | 8 | 7 | 384 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 264 | 261 | 526 | 63 | 239 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 104 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 260 | 364 | 337 | 700 | 77 | 295 | 12 | 14 | 322 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 286 | 255 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 75 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 231 | 302 | 278 | 581 | 47 | 317 | 26 | 6 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 286 | 247 | 64 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 55 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 259 | 349 | 312 | 660 | 53 | 323 | 19 | 9 | 304 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 206 | 190 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 163 | 222 | 195 | 416 | 32 | 208 | 23 | 2 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 173 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 191 | 280 | 295 | 574 | 104 | 180 | 10 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 264 | 261 | 526 | 63 | 240 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 286 | 258 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 75 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 229 | 302 | 275 | 578 | 47 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 194 | 173 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 191 | 280 | 295 | 574 | 104 | 180 | 10 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 122 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 264 | 261 | 526 | 63 | 240 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 286 | 258 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 75 | 9 | 20 | 7 | 229 | 302 | 275 | 578 | 47 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 396 | 363 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 217 | 278 | 298 | 576 | 82 | 285 | 25 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 224 | 204 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 284 | 316 | 600 | 95 | 287 | 25 | 6 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 315 | 287 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 77 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 288 | 329 | 618 | 104 | 288 | 24 | 6 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 382 | 348 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 92 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 228 | 292 | 339 | 631 | 110 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 419 | 382 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 101 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 230 | 294 | 344 | 639 | 115 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 287 | 81 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 439 | 400 | 92 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 105 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 231 | 295 | 348 | 643 | 117 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 445 | 405 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 107 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 230 | 295 | 345 | 640 | 116 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 444 | 404 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 108 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 228 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 113 | 288 | 24 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 435 | 396 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 107 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 226 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 109 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 57% | 423 | 385 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 106 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 223 | 287 | 328 | 614 | 105 | 285 | 25 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 77 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 287 | 323 | 610 | 98 | 291 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 70 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 153 | 140 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 292 | 336 | 628 | 107 | 292 | 24 | 7 | 283 | 75 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 201 | 183 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 232 | 295 | 346 | 641 | 114 | 293 | 24 | 6 | 288 | 78 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 229 | 208 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 297 | 352 | 650 | 119 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 292 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 244 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 234 | 299 | 356 | 654 | 121 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 294 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 245 | 222 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 298 | 353 | 651 | 120 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 292 | 81 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 243 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 232 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 117 | 292 | 24 | 7 | 290 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 232 | 211 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 293 | 342 | 636 | 113 | 291 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 57% | 241 | 220 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 108 | 289 | 25 | 7 | 282 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1865 | 1697 | 390 | 69 | 8 | 36 | 127 | 454 | 26 | 43 | 15 | 230 | 294 | 344 | 637 | 114 | 291 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 71 | -48 | +3 | -2 | +20 | +40 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 137 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 158 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 232 | 295 | 349 | 643 | 117 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 288 | 71 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4505 | 4089 | 907 | 148 | 24 | 71 | 289 | 1065 | 82 | 154 | 41 | 222 | 287 | 322 | 608 | 100 | 280 | 24 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -100 | +7 | -4 | +40 | +80 | 2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 130 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 154 | 12 | 22 | 6 | 220 | 286 | 317 | 603 | 97 | 279 | 24 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 220 PAwOBA .299 → .263 (−35)K% 19.1% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.09% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 28.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 2.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.030 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .299 → .263; ISO .057 → .049; BABIP .329 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 44 PAwOBA .282 → .198 (−85)K% 18.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 14.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .282 → .198; ISO .056 → .039; BABIP .250 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 22 PAwOBA .357 → .284 (−73)K% 22.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 14.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 37.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .357 → .284; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .417 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 122 PAwOBA .315 → .235 (−80)K% 12.3% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.30% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.93% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.72% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 2.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .315 → .235; ISO .077 → .056; BABIP .295 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 194 PAwOBA .387 → .245 (−142)K% 8.2% → 10.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.25% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.70% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.15% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.082 | ×0.680 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 14.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.956 | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.992 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .387 → .245; ISO .190 → .106; BABIP .304 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 206 PAwOBA .282 → .186 (−96)K% 19.4% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.42% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.40% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.37% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.53% | ÷1.044 | ×0.680 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 17.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.096 | ×0.600 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.054 | ×0.600 | ×0.999 | ×1.022 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 111, K 108, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .282 → .186; ISO .059 → .033; BABIP .322 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).