Luis Velasquez — OGILVIE

Luis Velasquez P DSL Brewers Blue

+0.1 WAR

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2032

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.8%

IP33

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2032

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	11	4	39	182	25	37	3	9.3%	25.4%	2.2%	6.18	6.72	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	MIL	33	—	33	141	31	16	4	21.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	19	MLB	MIL	35	—	35	148	33	15	4	22.4%	10.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.48	+0.2
2028	20	MLB	MIL	37	—	37	156	36	15	4	22.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.3
2029	21	MLB	MIL	39	—	39	163	38	15	5	23.3%	9.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.22	+0.3
2030	22	MLB	MIL	41	—	41	171	42	15	5	24.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.14	4.04	+0.4
2031	23	MLB	MIL	42	—	42	178	44	15	5	24.9%	8.4%	2.7%	4.00	3.91	+0.5
2032	24	MLB	MIL	43	—	43	182	47	15	5	25.5%	8.1%	2.7%	3.89	3.82	+0.6
2033	25	MLB	MIL	44	—	44	185	48	15	5	25.9%	8.0%	2.7%	3.82	3.77	+0.6
2034	26	MLB	MIL	44	—	44	185	48	15	5	26.1%	8.0%	2.7%	3.77	3.74	+0.6
2035	27	MLB	MIL	43	—	43	183	48	15	5	26.1%	8.0%	2.7%	3.76	3.75	+0.6
2036	28	MLB	MIL	43	—	43	180	47	14	5	26.0%	8.0%	2.7%	3.77	3.78	+0.6
2037	29	MLB	MIL	42	—	42	176	46	14	5	25.9%	8.1%	2.7%	3.80	3.82	+0.5
2038	30	MLB	MIL	40	—	40	171	44	14	5	25.7%	8.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.89	+0.5
2039	31	MLB	MIL	39	—	39	165	42	14	5	25.5%	8.3%	2.9%	3.92	3.96	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			11	4	39	182	17	46	4	9.3%	25.4%	2.2%	6.18	6.72	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—			56	20	200	925	86	234	20	9.3%	25.4%	2.2%	6.18	6.72	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.9%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.34	22.9%	13.2%	111	-0.32	—	—	—
Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	18	SU	3.88	23.0%	12.9%	2.0%	.316	4.21	21.5%	3.8%	148	+0.33	3.31	182	91
Alexander Cornielle R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	19	SU	4.22	24.1%	14.2%	2.5%	.329	4.39	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.17	3.88	482	91
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	20	SU	4.09	25.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.80	3.20	104	89
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	18	SU	4.22	24.0%	14.2%	2.5%	.337	4.55	19.9%	2.2%	124	+0.33	3.83	193	88
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	20	SU	3.71	23.5%	13.2%	1.7%	.286	4.77	17.2%	6.2%	157	+1.06	3.71	181	86
Justin Meis R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	21	SU	4.02	25.6%	13.6%	2.5%	.300	5.11	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.09	3.64	341	85
Kobe Robinson R 2029 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	84
Caleb Freeman R 2029 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	198	84
Reynardo Cruz R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	19	SU	3.90	22.5%	14.8%	1.5%	.264	5.55	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.65	3.90	144	84
Dahian Santos R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.52	197	83
Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.60	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.14	4.15	179	83
Danny Dopico R 2029 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	83
Eccel Correa R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	83
Yimi Presinal R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	18	SU	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.04	19.2%	4.4%	40	-0.71	3.62	105	83
Gabe Bierman R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	83
Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	19	SU	3.49	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.43	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.49	115	83
Michael Brewer R 2028 · 4.28 FIP	20	SU	4.28	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.68	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.40	3.11	144	82
Kyle Hinton R 2029 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	82
Luis Victorino R 2027 · 4.27 FIP	19	SU	4.27	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.96	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.69	4.27	118	82
Daniel Espino R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	18	SU	4.31	20.5%	11.8%	2.6%	.194	3.63	32.5%	21.4%	110	-0.68	3.51	124	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$8M