Luis Velasquez — OGILVIE

Luis Velasquez P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 63 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%20.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.9%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6065

CMD2030

K†5065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	4	39	182	25	37	3	36%	3.6	9.3%	25.4%	-16.1%	2.2%	6.18	6.75	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	11	4	39	182	25	37	3	36%	3.6	9.3%	25.4%	-16.1%	2.2%	6.18	6.75	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	11	4	39	182	25	37	3	36%	3.6	13.7%	20.3%	-6.6%	1.6%	6.18	5.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIL	60	0	63	266	56	53	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	20.0%	0.9%	3.0%	5.88	5.88	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIL	63	0	67	281	67	49	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	17.4%	6.3%	2.9%	5.46	5.29	-0.6
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	70	295	75	46	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	2.9%	5.08	4.88	-0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	73	310	84	44	9	0%	1.0	27.1%	14.2%	12.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.53	+0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIL	73	0	76	322	90	43	9	0%	1.0	28.1%	13.3%	14.7%	2.8%	4.49	4.32	+0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIL	74	0	78	330	95	42	9	0%	1.1	28.7%	12.8%	15.9%	2.7%	4.31	4.18	+0.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIL	75	0	79	334	97	41	9	0%	1.1	29.1%	12.4%	16.7%	2.7%	4.18	4.10	+0.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIL	75	0	79	334	98	41	9	0%	1.1	29.3%	12.4%	16.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.07	+0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIL	74	0	78	329	96	41	9	0%	1.1	29.3%	12.4%	16.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.11	+0.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIL	72	0	76	319	93	40	9	0%	1.0	29.1%	12.6%	16.5%	2.9%	4.16	4.20	+0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	72	305	88	39	9	0%	1.0	28.9%	12.8%	16.1%	3.0%	4.26	4.33	+0.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	68	287	82	38	9	0%	1.0	28.6%	13.1%	15.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.50	+0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIL	31	0	33	139	33	24	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	17.4%	6.3%	3.1%	5.54	5.37	-0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIL	49	0	51	215	55	34	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	15.6%	9.8%	3.0%	5.16	4.96	-0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	71	37	8	0%	1.1	27.1%	14.2%	12.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.61	+0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	81	38	8	0%	1.0	28.1%	13.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.40	+0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIL	69	0	72	304	87	39	9	0%	1.0	28.7%	12.8%	15.9%	2.9%	4.39	4.26	+0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIL	70	0	74	312	91	39	9	0%	1.1	29.1%	12.4%	16.7%	2.9%	4.25	4.17	+0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIL	71	0	75	317	93	39	9	0%	1.1	29.3%	12.4%	16.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.14	+0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIL	70	0	74	312	91	39	9	0%	1.1	29.3%	12.4%	16.8%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIL	69	0	72	304	89	38	9	0%	1.0	29.1%	12.6%	16.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.28	+0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIL	66	0	69	291	84	37	9	0%	1.0	28.9%	12.8%	16.1%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIL	62	0	65	274	78	36	9	0%	1.0	28.6%	13.1%	15.4%	3.4%	4.50	4.59	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		680	0	714	3015	852	400	90	0%	1.1	28.2%	13.3%	15.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.04	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	239	112	25	0%	1.1	28.2%	13.3%	15.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		11	4	39	182	17	46	4	36%	3.6	9.3%	25.4%	-16.1%	2.2%	6.18	6.75	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	20	200	925	86	235	20	36%	3.6	9.3%	25.4%	-16.1%	2.2%	6.18	6.75	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	20.9%	20.0%	3.0%	—	4.89	25.5%	9.8%	210	-0.99	—	—	—
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	86
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	81
Yorman Galindez R 2022 · 4.93 FIP	19	SW	4.93	19.1%	18.3%	2.1%	.374	3.77	22.9%	6.2%	96	-1.16	3.63	201	81
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	81
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	80
Juan Soto R 2022 · 5.88 FIP	19	SW	5.88	16.4%	21.4%	2.7%	.274	6.68	8.9%	-15.1%	26	+0.80	5.06	102	80
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	78
Jose Olivares R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	19	SW	4.99	18.4%	14.4%	2.9%	.276	4.78	18.6%	4.1%	222	-0.21	3.05	308	77
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	77
Connor Van Scoyoc R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	19	SW	4.91	17.1%	22.6%	0.7%	.304	4.10	19.9%	9.4%	162	-0.81	4.06	605	76
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	76
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	76
Dante Mendoza R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SW	5.90	14.9%	14.1%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	113	76
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	76
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	76
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	75
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	75
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	75
Michele Vassalotti R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP-	5.31	17.8%	20.8%	2.0%	.280	4.22	19.1%	2.6%	82	-1.09	2.60	238	75
Alfredo Tavarez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	19	SW	5.47	22.0%	13.3%	4.6%	.257	4.60	12.0%	-1.4%	110	-0.87	3.67	214	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	73	27.5%	14.0%	1.11	4.57
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Eric Plunk ('86-'99, 11 WAR*)	5.8	82	27.6%*	12.1%*	1.06*	3.83*
Jake Diekman ('24)	3.0	50	28.7%	13.4%	0.79	3.91
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*