Connor Van Scoyoc
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%10.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%0.2%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 12 | 5 | 40 | 199 | 50 | 36 | 1 | 42% | 3.4 | 17.1% | 22.6% | -5.5% | 0.7% | 5.13 | 4.91 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | 12 | 5 | 40 | 199 | 50 | 36 | 1 | 42% | 3.4 | 25.1% | 18.1% | 7.0% | 0.5% | 5.13 | 3.62 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 42 | 202 | 51 | 24 | 2 | 67% | 3.5 | 18.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 6.48 | 4.01 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 42 | 202 | 51 | 24 | 2 | 67% | 3.5 | 25.2% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 1.0% | 6.48 | 3.00 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 23 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 140 | 39 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.28 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 23 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 140 | 39 | 10 | 96% | 5.2 | 27.7% | 7.7% | 20.0% | 2.0% | 4.28 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 538 | 114 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.51 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 538 | 114 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 22 | 115 | 489 | 73 | 43 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 12.1% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 5.25 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 22 | 115 | 489 | 73 | 43 | 12 | 96% | 5.0 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 41 | 0 | 86 | 368 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 11.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.19 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 41 | 0 | 86 | 368 | 46 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 12.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 4.19 | 3.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 20 | 5 | 59 | 253 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 25% | 3.0 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 30 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 129 | 549 | 88 | 49 | 15 | — | — | 16.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 10.0% | 9.8% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 5.33 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 33 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.3% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 34 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 34 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.4% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.3% | 9.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.1% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 24 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.4% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 57 | 47 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.26 | 4.93 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 101 | 84 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.26 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 85 | 590 | 2555 | 411 | 271 | 67 | 55% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.53 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 29 | 200 | 866 | 139 | 92 | 23 | 55% | 3.8 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Van Scoyoc (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | — | 5.30 | 11.9% | 2.0% | 200 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 84 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 82 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 81 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 81 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 80 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 80 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 79 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 79 |
| Colin Bates R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 78 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 78 |
| Scott McGregor R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 78 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 78 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 78 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 77 |
| Tony Bucciferro R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 107 | 77 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 76 |
| Jose Reyes R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.03 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 225 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 11.4% | 9.9% | 1.09 | 5.28 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |