Adrian Tusen

SS DSL Nationals

Age 19 S/R 6'1" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1907ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKWSH	50	.100/.265/.100	0	5	-27	—	.070/.184/.070
2026	18	ROKWSH	119	.228/.339/.347	2	17	17	—	.133/.229/.190
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBWSH	229	.199/.268/.273	2	8	54	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBWSH	41	.202/.273/.283	0	2	60	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBWSH	104	.207/.278/.296	1	4	65	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed95

Chase%52

ISO51

Z-Con%31

wOBA27

BB%26

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJavier Herrera (age 19) · Brainer Bonaci (age 20) · Jeremy Arocho (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .266 / .270

PA62

HR0

K%31

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	50	40	4	0	0	0	8	15	1	5	2	100	265	100	365		160	30	16	199	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	119	101	23	2	2	2	14	34	3	17	6	228	339	347	686	119	323	29	12	314	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	50	43	3	0	0	0	5	19	1	5	2	70	184	70	253		107	38	10	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	119	105	14	1	1	1	10	42	3	17	6	133	229	190	419	57	205	35	8	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	50	43	3	0	0	0	5	19	1	5	2	70	184	70	253		125	38	10	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	50	40	4	0	0	0	8	15	1	5	2	100	265	100	365		160	30	16	199	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	119	105	14	1	1	1	10	42	3	17	6	133	229	190	419	57	210	35	8	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	119	101	23	2	2	2	14	34	3	17	6	228	339	347	686	119	323	29	12	314	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	50	44	3	0	0	0	5	19	1	5	2	68	184	68	252		107	38	10	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	119	105	14	1	1	1	10	42	3	17	6	133	229	190	419	57	205	35	8	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	50	44	3	0	0	0	5	19	1	5	2	68	184	68	252		107	38	10	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	119	105	14	1	1	1	10	42	3	17	6	133	229	190	419	57	205	35	8	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	229	207	42	6	2	2	17	70	3	8	1	199	268	273	541	74	287	31	7	248	54	-12	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	118	106	21	3	1	1	9	36	2	4	1	204	274	287	561	83	289	31	8	257	60	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	214	193	41	6	2	3	16	63	3	8	1	208	279	300	579	92	290	29	7	264	65	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	325	293	62	9	3	5	25	95	4	13	2	212	283	311	594	99	292	29	8	270	69	-12	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	407	368	79	12	3	7	31	117	5	16	2	215	287	321	607	106	292	29	8	275	72	-13	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	459	414	90	13	4	8	36	130	6	18	3	218	290	329	619	111	293	28	8	280	76	-13	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	488	441	96	14	4	9	38	138	6	19	3	218	290	332	622	113	294	28	8	281	76	-14	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	505	454	100	15	4	10	39	143	7	19	3	219	290	334	624	115	293	28	8	282	77	-14	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	510	458	100	15	4	10	40	145	7	20	3	218	289	331	621	114	293	28	8	281	76	-15	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	507	456	99	15	4	9	40	146	6	19	3	216	288	327	614	111	292	29	8	278	74	-16	+3	-1	+5	+11	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	496	449	96	14	4	9	38	144	6	18	3	214	285	321	606	107	291	29	8	275	72	-17	+2	-1	+5	+11	0.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	WSH	60%	486	440	92	13	4	8	37	143	6	17	3	211	281	314	595	103	289	29	8	270	69	-18	+2	-2	+5	+11	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	12	1	2	0	202	273	283	556	80	287	29	7	255	60	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	104	94	19	3	1	1	8	31	1	4	1	207	278	296	574	89	289	30	8	262	65	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	176	159	34	5	1	3	13	51	2	7	1	210	282	307	589	96	290	29	7	268	69	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	230	207	45	7	2	4	18	66	3	9	1	214	286	317	602	103	291	29	8	274	72	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	260	235	52	8	2	5	20	74	3	10	2	217	289	325	614	109	292	28	8	278	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	276	249	54	8	2	5	21	78	4	11	2	217	289	328	617	111	292	28	8	279	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	285	257	55	8	2	5	22	81	4	11	2	218	289	330	619	112	292	28	8	280	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	283	255	55	8	2	5	22	81	4	11	2	217	288	327	616	111	291	29	8	279	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	278	251	54	8	2	5	22	80	3	10	2	215	287	323	610	108	290	29	8	276	74	-8	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	288	260	55	8	2	5	22	84	4	10	2	213	284	317	601	105	289	29	8	273	72	-10	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	WSH	60%	293	266	56	8	2	5	22	86	3	10	2	210	281	310	591	100	288	29	8	269	69	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2514	2270	486	72	18	43	193	724	32	95	17	214	285	319	603	104	293	29	8	275	70	-80	+12	-2	+27	+54	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	126	19	5	11	50	187	8	25	4	215	285	320	606	106	293	29	8	275	70	-21	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4746	4276	905	132	39	80	369	1380	63	195	35	212	284	317	601	105	291	29	8	272	70	-149	+24	-4	+49	+99	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	124	18	5	11	51	189	9	27	5	212	285	316	601	104	290	29	8	272	70	-21	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Nationals · 119 PAwOBA .306 → .193 (−113)K% 28.6% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	34.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.19%
HBP% /PA	2.52%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.76%
Singles /BIP	25.37%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.976	×0.995	16.75%
Doubles /BIP	2.99%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.976	×0.995	1.74%
Triples /BIP	2.99%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.976	×0.995	1.74%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.40%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .306 → .193; ISO .119 → .061; BABIP .323 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Nationals · 50 PAwOBA .185 → .128 (−58)K% 30.0% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	37.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.00%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.63%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.41%
Singles /BIP	16.00%	÷1.025	×0.680	—	×1.008	10.69%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.999	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.300	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .185 → .128; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .160 → .107. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,575	44	97	216	284	323	+28	+21	2.8	2.7
/162	664	11	25	+7.1	+5.4	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Tusen (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	197/266/270	73	287	0	2	31%	7%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→44	38→30	53→60	41	204/261/287	83	286	4	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	223/282/290	67	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	230/324/274	45	312	0	26	23%	11%	74	-0.3
✕Raimundo De Los Santos 2024 · A	19	40	34→40	53→55	46	186/261/233	47	268	2	14	29%	8%	44	-2.8	194/271/245	51	308	2	22	34%	9%	51	-2.3	191/274/238	46	312	3	30	36%	10%	47	-0.9
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	42→50	38→40	55→60	43	198/264/277	79	283	5	20	30%	7%	55	-2.0	217/285/288	71	314	4	22	30%	7%	65	-1.2	194/260/277	83	283	8	24	32%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2024 · A	19	41→40	37→45	53→60	45	189/276/261	72	296	4	19	34%	9%	57	-1.8	210/266/317	107	310	10	28	34%	6%	65	-1.2	207/258/332	125	300	14	35	34%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	37	36→45	53→55	50	177/255/242	65	229	3	14	23%	9%	44	-2.8	224/287/320	96	315	6	19	28%	7%	73	-0.6	208/269/327	119	312	11	21	35%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	217/271/293	76	299	5	21	28%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/264	57	287	2	13	26%	7%	53	-2.1	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Tito Polo 2014 · A	19	41→51	36→45	54→60	43	196/264/262	66	267	4	22	27%	6%	51	-2.2	212/270/304	92	282	7	23	26%	5%	63	-1.4	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	41→44	37→50	55	45	194/259/272	77	267	4	14	28%	8%	51	-2.2	178/254/255	77	256	5	12	30%	8%	47	-2.6	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Heiker Meneses 2010 · A	19	35→45	34→40	56→55	47	166/264/218	52	252	2	18	31%	9%	43	-2.8	207/263/280	73	304	4	18	31%	5%	55	-2.0	236/284/314	78	342	3	18	30%	4%	66	-0.8
✕Leandro Arias 2024 · A	19	40→45	39→40	53→45	48	194/267/279	85	248	6	14	23%	8%	57	-1.8	205/275/282	77	269	6	8	24%	8%	61	-1.5	203/277/274	71	268	6	8	25%	8%	58	-1.1
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	45→51	37→45	50→55	45	212/276/286	75	285	5	13	26%	7%	61	-1.5	233/279/311	78	310	4	18	24%	6%	67	-1.1	230/292/338	108	300	7	25	24%	7%	77	-0.3
✕Victor Acosta 2023 · A	19	40→45	39→40	50	47	192/277/282	90	267	6	15	28%	8%	61	-1.5	194/279/270	76	279	3	11	29%	8%	59	-1.6	188/274/265	77	265	4	13	28%	7%	55	-1.1
✕Andrew Velazquez 2013 · A	19	47→53	38→50	60	41	214/274/305	90	332	3	20	34%	7%	64	-1.3	228/282/312	84	346	4	17	32%	7%	68	-1.0	226/274/363	137	318	12	31	31%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	43→48	40→50	59→65	47	205/283/296	91	289	7	26	30%	9%	66	-1.1	211/287/356	145	315	14	39	35%	9%	82	-0.0	210/288/361	151	303	15	47	33%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2016 · A	19	41→45	37→45	53→50	49	193/276/274	81	272	2	12	28%	9%	59	-1.7	206/262/321	115	307	9	14	34%	7%	63	-1.3	199/269/311	112	312	11	14	37%	8%	62	-0.8
✕Ernesto Manzanillo 2008 · A	19	41	37→40	57→50	48	193/271/269	77	266	4	15	27%	9%	56	-1.9	215/282/308	93	313	5	14	30%	8%	68	-1.0	219/262/306	86	319	4	11	31%	5%	58	-0.7

Adrian Tusen

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps