Juan Lopez — OGILVIE

Juan Lopez P FCL Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%22.9%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	2.8%	2.70	4.77	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	22.2%	16.0%	6.2%	2.8%	2.70	4.77	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	15	0	33	156	51	20	4	0%	2.2	32.7%	12.8%	19.9%	2.6%	2.70	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	18.8%	24.8%	-6.0%	4.2%	4.38	6.97	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	18.8%	24.8%	-6.0%	4.2%	4.38	6.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	WSH	13	6	37	166	46	33	5	46%	2.8	27.7%	19.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.38	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	36	0	38	160	38	20	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.66	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	19	10	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	79	19	10	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	107	21	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		28	6	70	322	66	66	11	21%	2.5	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	3.5%	3.58	5.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	17	200	916	188	188	32	21%	2.5	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	3.5%	3.58	5.90	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	22.9%	14.4%	3.0%	—	4.66	23.9%	11.4%	38	-0.35	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	85
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	84
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	81
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	81
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	81
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	80
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	79
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	79
Jose Romero R 2022 · 4.29 FIP	21	SW	4.29	22.7%	17.2%	1.7%	.200	4.34	21.6%	3.9%	100	+0.05	3.71	163	79
Homer Cruz R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	21	SW	3.93	20.5%	13.7%	1.5%	.286	6.04	13.5%	-1.6%	19	+2.11	3.75	127	78
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	78
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	77
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	77
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	77
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	76
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.6%	13.2%	1.14	4.85
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64