Francis Valdez

P DSL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKTB	8	0	8	9.00	5.72	26.8%	24.4%	—	K 26.8% · BB 24.4% · FIP 5.26
2026	21	ROKTB	12	1	10	19.16	7.36	14.9%	25.4%	—	K 10.1% · BB 31.7% · FIP 7.41
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	6	0	6	5.91	5.91	20.6%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTB	10	0	10	5.53	5.39	21.6%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAndrew Schultz (age 22) · Jackson Rose (age 22) · Hudson Leach (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%20.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.6%

Proj IP6

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	0	8	41	11	10	1	0%	1.0	26.8%	24.4%	2.4%	2.4%	9.00	5.26	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	0	8	41	11	10	1	0%	1.0	26.8%	24.4%	2.4%	2.4%	9.00	5.26	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	8	0	8	41	11	10	1	0%	1.0	26.8%	24.4%	2.4%	2.4%	9.00	5.72	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	1	10	67	10	17	1	8%	0.9	10.1%	31.7%	-21.6%	2.1%	19.16	7.41	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	1	10	67	10	17	1	8%	0.9	10.1%	31.7%	-21.6%	2.1%	19.16	7.41	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	1	10	67	10	17	1	8%	0.9	14.9%	25.4%	-10.4%	1.5%	19.16	7.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	20.0%	0.6%	3.0%	5.91	5.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	18	14	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.53	5.39	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.53	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.53	5.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.53	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		20	1	18	108	18	31	2	5%	0.9	16.5%	28.9%	-12.5%	2.2%	14.73	6.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		218	11	200	1178	194	341	26	5%	0.9	16.5%	28.9%	-12.5%	2.2%	14.73	6.59	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	20.6%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.39	21.6%	4.9%	20	-0.52	—	—	—
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	91
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	89
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	88
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	88
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	87
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	87
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	86
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	86
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	85
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	85
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	84
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Jace Beck R 2022 · 6.24 FIP	22	SU	6.24	19.2%	23.6%	3.2%	.205	4.33	27.6%	8.3%	76	-1.91	4.03	216	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	82
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	82