Luis Mata

P ACL Cubs

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 167 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	6.06	3.77	22.7%	19.3%	—	K 15.5% · BB 24.1% · FIP 4.85
2026	20	MIX2 levels	22	3	40	6.02	6.08	18.2%	20.5%	—	K 13.4% · BB 26.2% · FIP 6.62
2027PROJ	21	MLBCHC	14	0	15	6.02	6.02	19.0%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCHC	18	0	19	5.60	5.43	20.6%	16.6%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJordan Brink (age 23) · Hansel Rosario (age 21) · Keegan Collett (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.02

FIP6.02

K%19.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.0%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	15.5%	24.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.06	4.85	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	15.5%	24.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.06	4.85	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	22.7%	19.3%	3.4%	0.0%	6.06	3.77	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	40	220	40	45	5	14%	1.8	13.4%	26.2%	-12.7%	2.4%	6.02	6.62	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	40	220	40	45	5	14%	1.8	13.4%	26.2%	-12.7%	2.4%	6.02	6.62	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	3	40	220	40	45	5	14%	1.8	18.2%	20.5%	-2.3%	2.3%	6.02	6.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CHC	14	0	15	63	12	13	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	20.0%	-1.0%	2.9%	6.02	6.02	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CHC	36	0	38	161	33	27	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.6%	4.0%	2.9%	5.60	5.43	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	CHC	18	0	19	80	17	13	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.6%	4.0%	2.9%	5.60	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	79	16	13	2	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.6%	4.0%	2.9%	5.60	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	139	21	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.6%	4.0%	2.9%	5.60	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		30	10	57	308	43	79	5	33%	1.9	14.0%	25.6%	-11.6%	1.7%	6.04	6.11	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	35	200	1087	152	278	19	33%	1.9	14.0%	25.6%	-11.6%	1.7%	6.04	6.11	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.02	19.0%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.43	20.6%	4.0%	38	-0.59	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	85
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	85
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	83
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	81
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	81
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	80
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	80
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	80
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	80
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	79
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	79
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	79
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	78
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	78
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	78
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.1%	17.6%	1.12	5.72
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*