Jose Arias

P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Brewers G…	11	8	39	5.77	4.66	15.6%	14.4%	—	K 10.6% · BB 18.1% · FIP 5.73
2026	19	ROKDSL Brewers G…	13	0	15	8.22	3.36	19.5%	14.6%	—	K 13.3% · BB 18.3% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	13	0	14	5.56	5.56	18.7%	16.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	17	0	18	5.26	5.15	19.9%	14.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsWill Kobos (age 20) · Over Galue (age 20) · Tanner Cooper (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%18.7%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	8	39	180	28	26	3	73%	3.5	10.6%	18.1%	-7.5%	2.2%	5.77	5.73	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	8	39	180	28	26	3	73%	3.5	10.6%	18.1%	-7.5%	2.2%	5.77	5.73	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	11	8	39	180	28	26	3	73%	3.5	15.6%	14.4%	1.1%	1.7%	5.77	4.66	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	13	0	15	82	16	12	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	18.3%	-5.0%	0.0%	8.22	4.30	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	13	0	15	82	16	12	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	18.3%	-5.0%	0.0%	8.22	4.30	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	13	0	15	82	16	12	0	0%	1.2	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	0.0%	8.22	3.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	13	0	14	59	11	10	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	16.2%	2.5%	2.9%	5.56	5.56	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	35	0	37	156	31	22	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.26	5.15	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	17	0	18	76	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.26	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	15	11	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.26	4.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	121	22	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.26	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		24	8	54	262	30	47	4	33%	2.3	11.4%	18.1%	-6.7%	1.5%	6.46	5.28	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	29	200	964	110	175	15	33%	2.3	11.4%	18.1%	-6.7%	1.5%	6.46	5.28	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	18.7%	16.2%	2.9%	—	5.15	19.9%	5.8%	37	-0.41	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	90
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	89
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	86
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	84
Sunayro Martina R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	20	SW	4.57	16.3%	16.9%	1.3%	.305	5.69	13.9%	-4.9%	71	+1.12	4.57	118	83
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	83
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	83
David Landeta R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	20	SU	5.04	14.5%	15.3%	2.2%	.353	3.86	16.8%	-0.4%	64	-1.18	3.64	111	82
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	82
Matthew Swain R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.9%	13.9%	1.6%	.362	5.19	20.6%	7.5%	115	+0.82	4.37	175	82
Nicolas Cruz R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	20	SW	4.84	19.2%	16.1%	2.4%	.437	3.32	20.4%	11.4%	117	-1.52	3.01	194	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	284	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	80
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	80
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	80
Ismael Aquino R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	20	SU	4.89	17.0%	16.5%	2.1%	.354	5.58	14.1%	-1.5%	14	+0.69	3.99	122	80
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	19.6%	14.6%	1.11	5.34
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*