Jhon Almonte — OGILVIE

Jhon Almonte P ACL Angels

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%16.0%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%0.8%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD2040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	11	47	213	36	26	1	100%	4.3	11.5%	15.3%	-3.8%	0.7%	5.70	4.43	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	11	47	213	36	26	1	100%	4.3	11.5%	15.3%	-3.8%	0.7%	5.70	4.43	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	11	11	47	213	36	26	1	100%	4.3	16.9%	12.2%	4.7%	0.5%	5.70	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	13	52	242	43	41	4	93%	3.7	12.5%	19.6%	-7.1%	2.6%	6.75	5.94	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	13	52	242	43	41	4	93%	3.7	12.5%	19.6%	-7.1%	2.6%	6.75	5.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	LAA	12	11	48	217	40	34	4	92%	4.0	18.4%	15.7%	2.8%	1.8%	5.85	4.54	—
2026	19	A RAW	LAA	2	2	4	25	3	7	0	100%	2.1	12.0%	28.0%	-16.0%	0.0%	16.62	5.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	53	225	40	31	6	100%	4.5	17.9%	13.6%	4.3%	2.8%	5.34	5.24	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	56	237	45	30	7	100%	4.7	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	2.8%	5.08	4.96	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	59	249	51	29	7	100%	4.9	20.6%	11.5%	9.1%	2.7%	4.83	4.69	+0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	61	258	55	28	7	100%	5.6	21.4%	10.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.64	4.52	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	63	264	58	28	7	100%	5.7	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.50	4.41	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	63	268	60	27	7	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	2.6%	4.40	4.34	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	63	268	60	27	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.2%	12.3%	2.6%	4.35	4.32	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	62	263	59	27	7	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.36	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	26	110	20	15	3	100%	4.3	17.9%	13.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.37	5.27	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	41	173	33	22	5	100%	5.1	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	2.8%	5.11	4.99	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	50	211	43	24	6	100%	5.0	20.6%	11.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.86	4.72	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	55	232	50	25	6	100%	5.5	21.4%	10.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.67	4.55	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	54	26	7	100%	5.8	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.44	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	56	26	7	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	2.7%	4.43	4.37	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	57	26	7	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	56	26	7	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.38	4.39	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	408	1723	369	189	47	100%	5.5	21.4%	11.0%	10.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.19	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	181	93	23	100%	5.5	21.4%	11.0%	10.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		25	24	99	455	55	80	8	96%	4.0	12.0%	17.6%	-5.5%	1.7%	6.25	5.23	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	48	200	916	110	161	15	96%	4.0	12.0%	17.6%	-5.5%	1.7%	6.25	5.23	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Almonte (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	16.0%	15.2%	2.9%	—	4.95	19.3%	6.8%	168	-0.68	—	—	—
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	89
Rafael Garcia R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP	4.65	14.9%	14.0%	1.9%	.288	7.13	16.0%	-0.4%	50	+2.48	4.65	102	87
Jonas De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	15.2%	15.3%	2.1%	.326	5.27	18.5%	4.3%	47	+0.37	4.73	130	87
Keiber Arredondo R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	19	SP	5.86	13.0%	13.4%	3.9%	.292	4.00	16.0%	2.7%	93	-1.86	3.61	141	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	85
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	84
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	84
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	83
Dennis Santana R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP	5.67	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	.319	3.48	20.3%	8.8%	268	-2.19	2.82	776	83
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	83
Arlinthon De Dios R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP	5.15	13.0%	11.6%	3.1%	.339	3.73	16.1%	4.6%	36	-1.42	3.73	123	83
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Ronnie Williams R 2015 · 5.36 FIP	19	SP	5.36	12.4%	13.2%	3.0%	.245	5.85	18.1%	4.3%	119	+0.49	4.58	344	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	57	20.9%	11.4%	1.05	4.72
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93