Abel Valdes — OGILVIE

Abel ValdesC DSL Rangers Red

Age 20 L/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP274

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE74

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	83	18	1	1	0	30	24	7	0	0	217	458	253	711	36	295	20	25	356	127	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	95	16	1	1	0	18	36	7	0	0	168	342	200	542	32	251	30	15	261	63	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	95	16	1	1	0	18	36	7	0	0	168	342	200	542	32	262	30	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	83	18	1	1	0	30	24	7	0	0	217	458	253	711	36	295	20	25	356	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	96	16	1	1	0	18	36	7	0	0	167	342	198	540	31	251	30	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	96	16	1	1	0	18	36	7	0	0	167	342	198	540	31	251	30	15	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	TEX	—	80	70	13	2	0	2	10	14	0	1	0	186	287	300	587	114	204	18	12	280	76	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	TEX	—	80	64	16	3	0	3	16	10	0	1	0	250	400	438	838	188	255	12	20	379	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	TEX	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		272	22	11	280	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	TEX	—	89	78	14	2	0	2	11	16	0	1	0	179	281	282	563	103	200	18	12	280	76	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	189	165	36	6	1	3	20	47	2	3	1	218	310	321	631	103	277	25	11	289	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	317	277	61	10	2	6	33	77	4	5	2	220	312	336	648	116	279	24	10	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	54%	405	355	78	13	2	8	42	98	5	7	2	220	311	335	646	115	280	24	10	297	87	-6	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	464	407	92	15	3	10	48	111	6	8	3	226	317	351	668	125	281	24	10	299	89	-6	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	498	438	97	16	3	10	51	119	6	9	3	221	311	340	651	119	281	24	10	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	517	452	102	17	3	11	53	124	7	9	3	226	316	350	666	124	281	24	10	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	520	454	102	17	3	11	54	125	7	9	3	225	317	348	665	123	281	24	10	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	520	453	102	17	3	11	55	126	7	9	3	225	318	349	667	124	280	24	11	299	89	-7	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	519	452	99	16	3	10	55	126	7	9	3	219	313	334	647	115	279	24	11	297	87	-8	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	510	445	98	16	3	10	54	125	6	8	3	220	313	337	650	117	278	25	11	294	85	-9	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	482	422	91	15	2	9	51	120	6	8	2	216	309	325	634	109	276	25	11	290	83	-10	+1	-3	+9	+10	0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	451	394	83	13	2	8	48	114	6	7	2	211	306	315	621	104	272	25	11	285	79	-11	+1	-4	+8	+10	0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	410	359	74	11	2	7	43	106	5	6	2	206	300	306	606	100	269	26	10	278	75	-12	+0	-4	+7	+9	-0.0
2040	34	MLB MLE	TEX	51%	356	312	63	9	2	6	37	94	4	5	2	202	295	301	596	99	263	26	10	270	69	-13	+0	-5	+6	+8	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	65	57	12	2	0	1	7	16	1	1	0	211	308	298	606	88	279	25	11	284	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	154	135	30	5	1	3	16	37	2	2	1	222	314	341	654	119	281	24	10	289	85	-3	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	54%	220	192	43	7	1	5	23	53	3	4	1	224	317	349	665	125	282	24	10	292	87	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	257	226	51	8	2	6	26	62	3	4	1	226	314	358	672	133	283	24	10	294	89	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	279	244	56	9	2	6	29	67	4	5	2	230	321	357	678	127	283	24	10	295	89	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	291	255	58	9	2	7	30	70	4	5	2	227	318	361	679	133	283	24	10	295	89	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	288	252	57	9	2	6	30	69	4	5	2	226	318	349	667	123	283	24	10	295	89	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	285	249	56	9	2	6	30	69	4	5	2	225	318	349	667	124	282	24	11	294	89	-4	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	277	242	54	9	1	6	29	67	4	5	2	223	316	343	659	120	282	24	10	292	87	-4	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	268	235	51	8	1	6	28	66	3	4	1	217	308	336	644	119	280	25	10	289	85	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	251	219	48	8	1	5	27	63	3	4	1	219	313	333	647	114	278	25	11	285	83	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	234	204	43	7	1	4	25	59	3	4	1	211	306	314	620	103	274	25	11	279	79	-6	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	230	201	41	6	1	4	24	59	3	3	1	204	298	303	602	100	270	26	10	273	75	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.0
2040	34	MLB CTX	TEX	51%	183	160	33	5	1	3	19	48	2	3	1	206	298	306	605	100	265	26	10	265	69	-7	+0	-3	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3282	2871	633	101	18	68	343	805	43	54	18	220	313	339	652	119	281	25	10	288	84	-59	+4	-10	+59	+71	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	125	20	4	13	68	159	9	11	4	220	313	337	651	118	280	24	10	288	84	-12	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6289	5488	1195	192	35	120	663	1550	85	102	34	218	312	331	643	113	279	25	11	293	84	-113	+7	-20	+110	+134	12.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	124	20	4	12	69	160	9	11	4	219	314	332	645	113	281	25	11	293	84	-12	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.1	3,384	65	56	219	308	334	+60	+32	9.3	7.9
/162	664	13	11	+11.9	+6.3	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Valdes (OGILVIE)	20	44→49	36→41	43→48	74	207/301/301	94	272	1	1	25%	11%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→50	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	77	-0.3	232/302/345	113	325	10	11	29%	9%	84	+0.2	233/308/347	114	330	9	15	29%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	48	37→45	47→55	54	222/303/297	75	280	4	12	21%	10%	74	-0.5	206/279/302	96	327	9	15	36%	9%	66	-1.1	187/261/280	94	307	11	18	40%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	52	40→45	50	57	243/333/344	100	295	6	10	18%	11%	96	+1.0	217/286/295	78	282	3	7	22%	8%	67	-1.1	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	47	-0.6
✕Cam Maron 2011 · A	20	47→57	40	50→40	47	225/290/318	93	285	7	6	23%	8%	74	-0.6	243/312/324	81	312	5	4	22%	8%	83	+0.1	248/318/312	64	318	4	2	21%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	82	-0.0	222/294/296	74	305	5	6	26%	7%	71	-0.8	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→39	38→45	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	65	-1.2	195/274/272	77	286	5	5	30%	9%	58	-1.7	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	47→55	38→45	48→50	49	218/287/306	88	288	3	11	24%	8%	70	-0.9	245/307/361	116	300	9	13	20%	7%	90	+0.6	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Alain Camou 2023 · A	19	51	37→40	46→50	53	240/305/319	80	282	3	10	16%	8%	79	-0.2	208/265/274	66	271	2	6	22%	7%	53	-2.1	181/234/228	47	241	0	2	23%	6%	30	-0.9
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→51	46→45	49→50	47	248/302/374	126	296	14	11	21%	7%	91	+0.7	233/316/354	121	279	10	13	19%	9%	92	+0.7	238/315/361	123	274	12	9	17%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	74	-0.5	199/293/310	111	279	10	5	29%	11%	74	-0.5	178/276/286	107	248	11	4	30%	11%	60	-0.8
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	50→56	39→45	48→50	52	238/315/322	84	301	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.1	211/274/296	85	298	5	10	29%	8%	62	-1.4	228/307/343	115	304	11	10	27%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	48	43→45	49→50	48	234/302/348	114	288	10	12	22%	7%	85	+0.2	231/279/321	90	301	5	7	24%	6%	70	-0.9	236/282/326	90	306	4	6	23%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	61	-1.5	204/280/290	86	281	5	16	27%	8%	63	-1.3	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→40	44→45	52	230/311/322	91	292	5	6	22%	9%	82	+0.0	244/332/321	77	296	4	8	17%	9%	91	+0.6	271/353/338	68	317	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Jeffer Patino 2009 · A	20	49	39→45	41→45	49	231/298/323	92	280	5	6	19%	7%	78	-0.3	206/256/281	75	259	5	4	21%	6%	52	-2.2	182/221/238	56	229	5	2	22%	4%	26	-1.0
✕Logan Watkins 2010 · A	20	50→53	36→40	50→55	48	229/306/299	69	323	3	7	28%	9%	76	-0.4	234/295/316	82	316	3	14	25%	7%	74	-0.5	239/305/330	91	316	4	17	24%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	46	182/270/274	91	279	8	6	35%	10%	57	-1.8	191/265/269	78	298	5	6	34%	9%	53	-2.1	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps