Abel Valdes

C DSL Rangers Red

Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1088ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Rangers B…	122	.217/.458/.253	0	0	60	—	.161/.350/.194
2026	20	ROKDSL Rangers R…	80	.250/.400/.438	3	1	51	—	.145/.262/.217
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBTEX	190	.217/.310/.298	2	2	76	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTEX	34	.220/.313/.311	0	1	80	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBTEX	84	.223/.314/.320	1	1	82	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%99

K%90

Z-Con%83

Whiff%82

ISO80

BB%80

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRichi Sanchez (age 21) · Tayden Hall (age 21) · Cam Maron (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .307 / .295

PA45

HR0

K%26

BB%10

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	83	18	1	1	0	30	24	7	0	0	217	458	253	711	36	295	20	25	356	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	64	16	3	0	3	16	10	0	1	0	250	400	438	838	188	255	12	20	379	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	93	15	1	1	0	20	31	7	0	0	161	350	194	544	32	207	25	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	69	10	2	0	1	11	12	0	1	0	145	263	217	480	72	169	15	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	93	15	1	1	0	20	31	7	0	0	161	350	194	544	32	234	25	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	83	18	1	1	0	30	24	7	0	0	217	458	253	711	36	295	20	25	356	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	69	10	2	0	1	11	12	0	1	0	145	263	217	480	72	161	15	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	64	16	3	0	3	16	10	0	1	0	250	400	438	838	188	255	12	20	379	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	94	15	1	1	0	20	31	7	0	0	160	350	191	541	32	207	25	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	69	10	2	0	1	11	12	0	1	0	145	263	217	480	72	169	15	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	122	94	15	1	1	0	20	31	7	0	0	160	350	191	541	32	207	25	16	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	—	80	69	10	2	0	1	11	12	0	1	0	145	263	217	480	72	169	15	14	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	190	165	36	5	1	2	20	49	3	2	1	217	310	298	608	81	294	26	11	281	76	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	98	87	19	3	1	1	10	25	1	2	1	220	312	309	621	89	294	26	10	286	80	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	174	151	33	5	1	2	18	44	3	3	1	223	314	318	632	95	295	25	10	290	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	260	228	52	8	2	4	26	66	4	4	2	225	315	325	641	100	296	25	10	293	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	325	284	64	10	2	5	33	81	5	6	2	227	316	331	647	105	296	25	10	296	86	-5	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	366	321	73	11	3	6	37	91	5	6	3	228	316	336	652	108	295	25	10	297	87	-6	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	385	338	77	12	3	6	39	96	5	7	3	226	315	333	648	107	295	25	10	296	86	-6	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	391	344	77	12	3	6	39	99	5	6	3	225	313	328	641	104	294	25	10	293	84	-7	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	386	340	77	12	3	6	38	99	5	6	3	222	310	322	632	100	292	26	10	289	82	-8	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	379	334	72	11	2	5	37	98	5	5	3	219	307	314	620	95	291	26	10	285	79	-10	-0	-2	+7	+8	0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	348	307	66	10	2	4	34	91	4	4	5	215	302	304	606	89	287	26	10	279	75	-10	-1	-3	+6	+8	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	34	31	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	1	0	220	313	311	623	90	294	26	9	287	80	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	84	74	16	2	1	1	9	21	1	1	1	223	314	320	635	97	295	25	11	291	82	-2	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	137	120	27	4	1	2	14	35	2	2	1	226	316	329	645	103	296	26	10	295	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	178	156	35	5	1	3	18	45	2	3	1	227	317	335	652	107	296	25	10	297	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	204	179	41	6	1	4	20	51	3	4	1	228	317	340	657	111	295	25	10	299	87	-3	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	212	186	42	6	1	4	21	53	3	4	2	227	316	337	653	109	295	25	10	297	86	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	214	188	42	6	1	4	21	54	3	3	2	225	314	332	646	106	294	25	10	295	84	-4	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	206	180	40	6	1	3	21	53	3	3	2	223	311	325	636	102	292	26	10	291	82	-4	-0	-1	+4	+4	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	199	175	39	6	1	3	20	51	2	3	2	220	307	317	624	97	290	26	10	286	79	-5	-0	-1	+4	+4	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	197	174	37	5	1	3	19	52	2	2	3	215	302	306	609	91	287	26	10	280	75	-6	-1	-2	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1665	1463	325	47	9	27	166	424	21	26	15	222	310	322	632	100	292	25	10	292	81	-34	-1	-4	+30	+36	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	127	18	4	11	65	166	8	10	6	222	311	326	636	103	292	26	10	292	81	-13	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3359	2935	643	98	23	46	347	845	50	51	26	219	312	315	627	96	290	25	10	288	81	-65	-0	-7	+56	+68	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	124	19	4	9	67	164	10	10	5	218	312	313	625	95	289	25	10	288	81	-13	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Rangers Red · 80 PAwOBA .370 → .244 (−126)K% 12.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	13.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×0.985	13.02%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×0.985	3.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	2.57%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .370 → .244; ISO .188 → .099; BABIP .255 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 122 PAwOBA .355 → .257 (−98)K% 19.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.67%	÷0.954	×1.220	—	—	25.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.59%	÷1.019	×0.700	—	×0.995	16.81%
HBP% /PA	5.74%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.00%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷1.003	×0.680	×1.047	×0.995	19.15%
Doubles /BIP	1.69%	÷1.026	×0.600	×1.047	×0.995	1.03%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.047	×0.995	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.995	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 91, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .355 → .257; ISO .036 → .027; BABIP .295 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#5Glenn Borgmann'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,526 PA	2.3	1,526	16	4	229*	328*	338*	+27	+0	4.5	4.4
/162	664	7	2	+11.8	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.6	1,709	25	26	224	309	324	+31	+24	4.3	4.0
/162	664	10	10	+11.9	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Valdes (OGILVIE)	21	52→57	33→38	43→48	80	215/307/295	80	294	0	1	26%	10%	76	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	46	36→40	48→50	56	213/303/284	71	267	3	8	20%	11%	72	-0.7	201/263/273	72	258	3	7	22%	7%	53	-2.1	170/226/236	67	206	0	6	17%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Tayden Hall 2024 · A	21	50→49	35→40	46→50	54	225/316/287	62	312	2	7	26%	11%	77	-0.3	203/305/287	84	280	5	8	26%	12%	74	-0.6	187/301/283	96	257	7	9	27%	13%	70	-0.5
✕Cam Maron 2012 · A	21	51→58	39→40	47→40	50	242/311/324	82	301	6	5	21%	8%	83	+0.1	242/313/321	79	317	4	3	23%	9%	82	+0.0	242/317/316	74	319	4	1	23%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Nolan Fontana 2013 · A	22	47→45	40	53→50	64	216/347/316	100	299	6	15	26%	16%	97	+1.1	216/325/314	98	314	6	11	29%	14%	87	+0.4	211/322/306	95	307	5	9	29%	13%	82	-0.0
✕Matt Cerda 2011 · A	21	50→56	39→40	51→40	51	237/301/327	90	286	5	4	18%	8%	80	-0.2	238/321/314	76	304	3	5	20%	11%	84	+0.2	238/331/301	63	307	2	5	21%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Josh Johnson 2007 · A	21	47→50	37→45	49→50	57	219/312/297	78	279	4	11	21%	12%	78	-0.3	223/307/291	68	293	3	10	22%	11%	74	-0.5	247/316/346	99	293	8	16	17%	9%	86	+0.2
✕José Godoy 2016 · A	21	50	36→45	48→30	50	233/298/300	67	280	4	5	18%	8%	72	-0.7	247/301/320	73	296	5	3	17%	6%	78	-0.3	255/310/326	72	305	5	2	17%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2024 · A	21	51→54	40	50	50	241/318/332	91	306	7	13	22%	9%	88	+0.4	240/315/330	90	307	8	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	238/317/323	85	303	7	15	22%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Cooper Ingle 2024 · A	22	51→56	39→50	48→40	60	236/332/330	94	292	5	11	19%	12%	93	+0.8	248/339/379	131	306	11	5	21%	12%	106	+1.8	245/342/386	141	308	13	3	23%	12%	106	+1.4
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→30	44→45	52	232/313/323	92	294	5	6	22%	10%	84	+0.1	246/336/323	77	297	4	8	17%	9%	93	+0.8	269/354/337	68	315	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Josh Horton 2008 · A	22	51→56	39→45	48→45	52	237/323/322	85	316	6	8	25%	10%	87	+0.4	246/302/316	70	303	4	5	19%	7%	77	-0.3	251/305/331	81	287	5	6	14%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Rio Ruiz 2015 · A	21	50→54	43→50	45→40	50	240/307/360	120	305	9	5	24%	9%	89	+0.5	237/302/351	114	309	10	3	24%	9%	86	+0.3	220/284/360	140	261	16	3	22%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Luke Shliger 2024 · A	22	48	39→40	47→50	46	228/295/315	87	300	6	9	25%	7%	75	-0.5	216/309/312	96	303	8	12	28%	10%	80	-0.1	213/312/314	101	295	10	14	28%	11%	82	-0.0
✕Tucker Barnhart 2012 · A	21	50→53	38→45	47→40	46	233/289/316	83	302	4	5	23%	7%	72	-0.7	228/287/311	83	285	5	3	20%	7%	70	-0.8	241/315/366	125	285	12	2	19%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	46→51	41→45	46→55	51	218/304/317	98	298	9	7	28%	10%	79	-0.2	237/308/353	116	333	10	11	29%	9%	88	+0.5	242/319/359	118	343	9	15	29%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Marcus Lemon 2009 · A	21	52→55	40	45	47	248/311/352	104	309	6	9	21%	7%	89	+0.5	244/290/324	80	300	3	8	19%	6%	74	-0.6	252/292/329	78	309	3	9	19%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Carlos Mendoza 2023 · A	23	52→56	36→40	49→55	60	241/347/312	72	303	3	13	20%	12%	95	+0.9	243/334/320	77	306	4	16	20%	10%	91	+0.7	246/335/334	88	300	7	18	19%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Jace Jung 2023 · A	22	45→44	39→50	50→40	51	211/295/304	92	294	6	7	28%	11%	73	-0.6	220/306/378	158	292	18	4	29%	10%	94	+0.9	214/306/374	160	280	19	3	29%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Cole Young 2024 · A	21	51→52	45	50	54	244/332/376	133	293	10	12	20%	10%	103	+1.6	242/323/366	124	285	11	11	18%	9%	97	+1.1	242/321/366	124	279	12	9	17%	9%	95	+0.9

Abel Valdes

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps