Michael Watson

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASTL	11	13	0.67	0.62	47.1%	9.8%	—	K 34.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 1.62
2025	23	MIX3 levels	43	66	3.14	3.22	27.8%	13.2%	—	K 21.4% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.50
2026	24	AASTL	46	53	4.96	3.95	29.1%	15.0%	—	K 23.6% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.79
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	33	35	5.01	5.01	23.3%	15.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSTL	25	26	4.93	4.92	23.5%	14.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	35	37	4.90	4.91	23.5%	14.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMitchell Tyranski (age 25) · Hector Mercado (age 26) · Nick Hagadone (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%23.3%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	34.8%	11.6%	23.3%	0.0%	0.67	1.62	—
2024	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	34.8%	11.6%	23.3%	0.0%	0.67	1.62	—
2024	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	0	13	51	24	5	0	0%	1.2	47.1%	9.8%	37.3%	0.0%	0.67	0.62	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.4%	3.14	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	2.4%	3.14	4.50	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	66	273	76	36	4	0%	1.5	27.8%	13.2%	14.7%	1.5%	3.14	3.22	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	53	247	72	37	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.79	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	53	247	72	37	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.5%	7.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.79	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	46	0	53	247	72	37	6	0%	1.1	29.1%	15.0%	14.2%	2.4%	4.96	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	33	0	35	148	34	22	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	15.1%	8.2%	2.9%	5.01	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	57	0	59	251	59	36	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	14.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.92	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	58	247	58	35	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.90	4.91	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	25	0	26	110	26	16	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	14.5%	9.0%	2.9%	4.93	4.92	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	35	0	37	156	37	22	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.90	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	63	38	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.3%	9.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	120	25	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.3%	9.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		100	0	132	571	134	87	14	0%	1.3	23.6%	15.3%	8.2%	2.4%	3.61	4.37	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	865	204	132	21	0%	1.3	23.6%	15.3%	8.2%	2.4%	3.61	4.37	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	23.3%	15.1%	2.9%	—	4.92	23.5%	9.1%	118	-0.09	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	88
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	88
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	88
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	87
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	86
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	85
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	84
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	82
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	82
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.21	23.7%	9.6%	137	-0.78	3.98	288	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	81
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	81
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	81
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	81
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Keylan Killgore L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	21.7%	12.3%	4.1%	.342	3.73	24.6%	10.5%	53	-1.36	3.73	161	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	23.4%	14.5%	1.13	4.94
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*