Holden Wilkerson

Holden Wilkerson P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%17.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	14.4%	9.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.35	4.58	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	14.4%	9.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.35	4.58	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	51	237	48	18	6	57%	3.6	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	2.5%	6.35	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	16.2%	11.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.31	4.80	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	16.2%	11.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.31	4.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	25	8	100	443	93	46	10	32%	4.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.3%	5.31	3.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	96	0	100	423	82	37	13	0%	1.0	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.58	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	97	0	102	429	86	36	13	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.47	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	97	0	102	429	88	36	13	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.42	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	95	0	100	423	87	36	13	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	92	0	97	410	84	35	13	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	88	0	93	391	79	34	13	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.2%	4.61	4.67	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	83	0	87	368	73	34	13	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.85	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	41	0	43	182	35	16	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.58	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	64	0	67	283	57	24	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.47	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	77	0	81	342	70	29	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	81	0	85	359	74	30	11	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	82	0	86	363	74	31	11	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	80	0	84	355	72	31	12	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.2%	4.61	4.67	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	76	0	80	338	67	31	12	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.85	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		502	0	528	2227	450	192	69	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.19	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	73	26	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		39	16	151	680	106	74	19	41%	3.9	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.66	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	21	200	901	140	99	25	41%	3.9	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.66	4.72	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holden Wilkerson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	17.8%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.49	20.0%	11.5%	304	-0.28	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	82
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	81
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Matt Smith R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	13.0%	6.4%	1.7%	.340	5.04	14.2%	6.7%	115	+1.27	3.77	163	79
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	78
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	78
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	77
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	77
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	90	20.0%	8.6%	1.19	4.57
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45