Holden Wilkerson
P
Vancouver Canadians
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%21.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 8 | 51 | 237 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 57% | 3.6 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 6.35 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 8 | 51 | 237 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 57% | 3.6 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 6.35 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 16 | 6 | 63 | 282 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 38% | 4.0 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.83 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 99 | 433 | 90 | 41 | 11 | — | — | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 5.33 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 0 | 133 | 560 | 128 | 50 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.92 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 75 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 14 | 114 | 519 | 79 | 53 | 14 | 47% | 3.8 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 6.06 | 4.64 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 24 | 200 | 908 | 138 | 92 | 25 | 47% | 3.8 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 6.06 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Holden Wilkerson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 22.7% | 13.8% | 111 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 85 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 82 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 80 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 80 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 79 |
| Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .289 | 4.91 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 49 | +0.41 | 2.26 | 276 | 79 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 78 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 78 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 78 |
| John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 77 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 77 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 77 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 77 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 77 |
| Travis Herrin R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 77 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 36 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.14 | 4.34 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |