Nomar Meza — OGILVIE

Nomar Meza P DSL Astros Blue

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%20.5%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%2.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	6	0	9	46	8	6	0	0%	1.6	17.4%	13.0%	4.3%	0.0%	5.79	3.28	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	6	0	9	46	8	6	0	0%	1.6	17.4%	13.0%	4.3%	0.0%	5.79	3.28	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	6	0	9	46	8	6	0	0%	1.6	17.4%	13.0%	4.3%	0.0%	5.79	3.31	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	10	2	20	91	17	17	1	20%	2.0	12.7%	23.4%	-10.6%	1.5%	3.98	5.83	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	10	2	20	91	17	17	1	20%	2.0	12.7%	23.4%	-10.6%	1.5%	3.98	5.83	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	10	2	20	91	17	17	1	20%	2.0	18.7%	18.7%	0.0%	1.1%	3.98	4.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	HOU	11	0	12	51	10	9	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	18.5%	2.1%	3.0%	5.71	5.71	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	18	13	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.7%	5.5%	2.9%	5.39	5.27	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	15.7%	5.5%	2.9%	5.39	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.7%	5.5%	2.9%	5.39	4.89	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.7%	5.5%	2.9%	5.39	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		16	2	30	137	20	27	1	12%	1.9	14.3%	19.9%	-5.6%	1.0%	4.55	4.97	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	13	200	924	132	184	9	12%	1.9	14.3%	19.9%	-5.6%	1.0%	4.55	4.97	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nomar Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	20.5%	18.5%	3.0%	—	5.27	21.3%	5.5%	20	-0.44	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	87
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	84
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	83
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	83
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	82
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	82
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	82
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	82
Daniel Lloyd R 2021 · 5.40 FIP	20	SU	5.40	20.4%	22.4%	2.2%	.367	4.15	18.0%	8.5%	226	-1.25	3.59	319	82
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	81
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	81
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	81
Ismael Aquino R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	20	SU	4.89	17.0%	16.5%	2.1%	.354	5.58	14.1%	-1.5%	14	+0.69	3.99	122	81
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	80
Nicolas Cruz R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	20	SW	4.84	19.2%	16.1%	2.4%	.437	3.32	20.4%	11.4%	117	-1.52	3.01	194	80
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	80