Ryan Mathiesen

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AHOU	1	0	1	0.00	6.10	0.0%	33.3%	—	K 0.0% · BB 33.3% · FIP 7.32
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	3	31	3.52	3.88	18.5%	18.5%	—	K 15.1% · BB 21.8% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	13	0	14	5.63	5.63	19.6%	17.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	11	0	12	5.34	5.24	20.6%	15.3%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23) · Zane Russell (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%19.6%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	31	130	24	24	0	14%	1.4	15.1%	21.8%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.52	4.58	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	31	130	24	24	0	14%	1.4	15.1%	21.8%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.52	4.58	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	3	31	130	24	24	0	14%	1.4	18.5%	18.5%	0.0%	0.0%	3.52	3.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	13	0	14	59	12	11	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	17.8%	1.8%	2.8%	5.63	5.63	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	27	0	28	118	24	18	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	5.24	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	11	0	12	51	10	8	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	10	8	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	134	17	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.34	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	3	32	133	20	29	0	13%	1.4	14.7%	22.0%	-7.3%	0.0%	3.41	4.64	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	19	200	840	124	185	0	13%	1.4	14.7%	22.0%	-7.3%	0.0%	3.41	4.64	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Mathiesen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	19.6%	17.8%	2.8%	—	5.24	20.6%	5.3%	28	-0.39	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	85
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	85
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	83
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	83
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	82
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	81
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	81
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	80
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	80