Jacob Kisting

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	30	5	74	3.79	2.48	25.7%	7.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.33
2026	23	MIX2 levels	23	21	110	1.72	2.30	29.1%	5.7%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.10
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	20	20	130	3.84	3.84	21.8%	6.2%	1.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIA	9	9	57	3.78	3.76	22.2%	6.2%	0.7
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIA	14	14	87	3.78	3.77	22.4%	6.2%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 3.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command60FB velo42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsMatt Andriese (age 25) · Blake Money (age 22) · Martin Agosta (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.84

FIP3.84

K%21.8%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD4560

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$22M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.0%	3.79	2.48	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	29.1%	5.7%	23.4%	1.6%	1.72	2.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	20	20	130	549	119	34	14	100%	6.5	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.84	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	132	556	123	34	15	100%	6.3	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.83	+1.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	132	556	124	35	15	100%	6.3	22.4%	6.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.85	3.84	+1.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	130	547	122	35	15	100%	6.5	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.7%	3.88	3.89	+1.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	126	531	118	35	15	100%	6.3	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	120	507	111	34	15	100%	6.3	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	3.0%	4.05	4.12	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	113	476	103	34	15	100%	6.3	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.2%	4.20	4.30	+0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	57	241	53	15	6	100%	6.3	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	2.5%	3.78	3.76	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	87	367	82	23	9	100%	6.2	22.4%	6.2%	16.1%	2.5%	3.78	3.77	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	100	422	94	27	11	100%	6.2	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.6%	3.81	3.82	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	106	448	99	29	12	100%	6.2	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.91	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	105	443	97	30	13	100%	6.6	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	2.8%	3.97	4.04	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	101	426	92	30	13	100%	6.3	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.0%	4.11	4.21	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	556	2349	519	155	64	100%	6.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.55	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	187	56	23	100%	6.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.55	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		53	26	184	736	157	55	13	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	28	200	801	171	60	14	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kisting (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	—	3.85	22.3%	16.0%	393	+0.01	—	—	—
Matt Andriese R 2015 · 3.08 FIP	25	SP-	3.08	20.1%	5.0%	1.9%	.316	4.01	21.8%	16.2%	327	+0.93	3.08	744	85
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	85
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	84
Brian Lawrence R 2001 · 3.53 FIP	25	SP-	3.53	17.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.269	3.98	14.6%	9.2%	624	+0.45	3.33	963	82
K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 2.69 FIP	24	SP-	2.69	26.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.277	4.94	17.5%	6.4%	186	+2.25	2.69	288	82
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
James Hicks R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.60	17.1%	9.7%	166	+0.37	4.23	272	81
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	81
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	80
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	79
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	79
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.87	17.1%	9.0%	186	+1.89	3.98	418	79
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	78
Shaun Anderson R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	18.0%	8.3%	2.9%	.317	4.59	19.5%	9.2%	150	+0.35	3.58	880	77
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	77
Logan Verrett R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SW	3.81	18.5%	6.7%	2.6%	.277	5.15	15.8%	6.3%	164	+1.34	3.81	550	77
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	77
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	126	22.1%	6.5%	1.08	3.94
Ed Halicki ('74-'80, 11 WAR*)	5.3	152	22.9%*	7.2%*	1.10*	4.18*
Matt Harvey ('21)	4.8	121	21.2%	6.7%	1.15	4.42
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Shaun Marcum ('15)	5.2	129	19.4%	7.3%	1.22	3.93
Pascual Perez ('80-'91, 19 WAR*)	6.2	138	21.3%*	6.7%*	1.24*	3.85*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*