Carlos Alvarez — OGILVIE

Carlos Alvarez P DSL Padres Gold

Age 18 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150158vR 166

ERA7.00

FIP7.00

K%17.1%

BB%26.4%

K-BB%-9.3%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—45

CTRL—30

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	12.8%	31.8%	-18.9%	1.3%	9.78	6.76	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	12.8%	31.8%	-18.9%	1.3%	9.78	6.76	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	18.9%	25.4%	-6.6%	0.8%	9.78	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.1%	0.0%	3.25	3.67	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.1%	0.0%	3.25	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	SD	11	11	44	183	37	20	0	100%	4.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	0.0%	3.25	2.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	46	193	35	42	6	100%	5.7	18.3%	21.6%	-3.3%	2.9%	6.44	6.25	-0.7
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	48	202	39	37	6	100%	5.3	19.1%	18.3%	0.8%	2.8%	5.96	5.74	-0.5
2029	21	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	50	212	42	34	6	100%	5.6	19.7%	15.9%	3.8%	2.8%	5.57	5.36	-0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	53	223	46	31	6	100%	5.3	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	2.7%	5.23	5.01	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	55	231	50	30	6	100%	5.5	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	4.95	4.76	+0.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	56	237	52	28	6	100%	5.6	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.72	4.57	+0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	57	240	54	27	6	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	2.6%	4.55	4.44	+0.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	57	240	54	26	6	100%	6.3	22.6%	11.0%	11.5%	2.6%	4.47	4.42	+0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	22	93	17	20	3	100%	5.5	18.3%	21.6%	-3.3%	3.0%	6.48	6.29	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	35	148	28	27	4	100%	5.8	19.1%	18.3%	0.8%	2.9%	6.00	5.78	-0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	42	177	35	28	5	100%	5.2	19.7%	15.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.61	5.40	-0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	47	198	41	28	6	100%	5.2	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	2.8%	5.27	5.05	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	46	27	6	100%	5.7	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.8%	4.99	4.80	+0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	49	26	6	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.76	4.61	+0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	51	25	6	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	2.7%	4.59	4.48	+0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	51	25	6	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.46	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	359	1514	319	208	42	100%	5.3	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	2.8%	5.12	4.58	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	844	178	116	23	100%	5.3	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	2.8%	5.12	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	23	67	305	41	64	2	100%	2.9	13.4%	20.9%	-7.5%	0.5%	5.48	4.90	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	68	200	906	121	189	5	100%	2.9	13.4%	20.9%	-7.5%	0.5%	5.48	4.90	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	7.00	17.1%	26.4%	2.9%	—	5.77	19.1%	0.6%	144	-1.23	—	—	—
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	87
Dylan MacLean L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	19	SP	6.38	13.6%	27.9%	1.6%	.271	4.11	15.7%	5.3%	101	-2.27	3.45	281	81
Alexuan Vega L 2018 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	11.5%	21.1%	3.6%	.306	5.64	13.6%	-7.7%	43	-1.16	5.05	111	78
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP	6.27	17.4%	30.7%	1.4%	.396	5.46	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.81	3.98	184	78
Seth Corry L 2017 · 5.87 FIP	18	SP-	5.87	13.0%	25.0%	1.3%	.197	3.33	23.2%	9.9%	161	-2.54	3.21	344	68
Edgardo Ibarra L 2021 · 7.46 FIP	18	SP-	7.46	17.5%	17.4%	6.6%	.286	5.30	15.1%	-3.7%	100	-2.16	5.26	142	67
Omar Fernandez L 2017 · 5.90 FIP	18	SP	5.90	10.6%	13.9%	3.5%	.357	3.54	10.8%	0.1%	20	-2.36	3.46	120	67
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.17	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.89	4.12	334	66
Dewin Perez L 2015 · 5.83 FIP	20	SP	5.83	10.4%	16.6%	2.8%	.318	4.28	16.0%	-1.0%	44	-1.55	4.28	113	66
Riger Fernandez L 2016 · 5.91 FIP	18	SP	5.91	9.3%	23.8%	1.1%	.263	4.91	17.4%	-4.8%	70	-1.00	4.61	164	66
Derek Corro L 2023 · 6.42 FIP	18	SP-	6.42	14.4%	26.5%	2.1%	.432	5.20	15.9%	-3.8%	67	-1.22	4.54	128	65
Braian Salazar L 2022 · 5.94 FIP	17	SP	5.94	13.8%	10.6%	4.9%	.250	4.05	21.9%	2.8%	89	-1.89	3.58	158	63
Lewis Sifontes L 2023 · 7.37 FIP	17	SP-	7.37	12.5%	20.2%	5.0%	.329	5.80	15.9%	-1.6%	95	-1.57	4.81	123	60
Zach Penrod L 2018 · 7.27 FIP	21	SP-	7.27	19.4%	13.4%	7.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	174	59
Eduardo Solano L 2015 · 6.15 FIP	18	SP-	6.15	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	.307	4.93	15.0%	-7.4%	61	-1.22	4.34	100	58
Robert Garcia L 2017 · 6.54 FIP	21	SP-	6.54	12.0%	12.9%	5.1%	.382	3.92	21.2%	9.5%	96	-2.62	2.21	452	56
Mason Albright L 2022 · 7.20 FIP	19	SP	7.20	16.5%	11.4%	7.4%	.400	5.33	15.1%	6.8%	343	-1.87	4.44	391	56
Brandon Herbold L 2023 · 6.39 FIP	18	SP	6.39	10.1%	8.7%	5.5%	.253	5.62	18.6%	-2.3%	82	-0.77	3.72	105	52
Resly Linares L 2016 · 6.07 FIP	18	SP	6.07	14.6%	7.1%	6.0%	.354	3.62	20.9%	12.3%	84	-2.45	2.57	165	47
Jacob Schlesener L 2016 · 7.07 FIP	19	SW	7.07	12.0%	39.4%	0.0%	.273	5.71	18.9%	-8.7%	60	-1.36	5.08	132	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	49	20.7%	14.8%	1.06	5.26
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58