Carlos Alvarez — OGILVIE

Carlos Alvarez P DSL Padres Gold

Age 18 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156165vR 175

ERA7.00

FIP7.00

K%17.1%

BB%26.4%

K-BB%-9.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—45

CTRL—30

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	12.8%	31.8%	-18.9%	1.5%	9.78	6.87	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	12	12	23	122	23	31	1	100%	1.9	18.9%	25.4%	-6.6%	0.8%	9.78	5.71	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	9	9	35	149	32	18	0	100%	3.9	14.6%	15.1%	-0.5%	0.0%	4.15	3.78	—
2026	18	ROK	SD	9	9	35	149	32	18	0	100%	3.9	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.82	—
ROS	18	MLB	SD	1	1	6	24	4	6	1	100%	5.8	17.1%	26.4%	-9.3%	2.9%	7.00	7.00	-0.1
2026 TOT	18	MLB	SD	—	—	40	173	36	24	1	—	—	20.9%	14.1%	6.8%	0.4%	4.56	4.24	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	SD	9	9	48	203	37	44	6	100%	5.3	18.3%	21.6%	-3.3%	2.9%	6.45	6.26	-0.7
2028	20	MLB	SD	9	9	50	213	41	39	6	100%	5.6	19.1%	18.3%	0.8%	2.8%	5.97	5.74	-0.5
2029	21	MLB	SD	10	10	53	224	44	36	6	100%	5.3	19.7%	15.9%	3.8%	2.8%	5.58	5.37	-0.3
2030	22	MLB	SD	10	10	56	235	49	33	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	2.7%	5.23	5.01	-0.1
2031	23	MLB	SD	11	11	58	244	52	31	7	100%	5.3	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	4.95	4.76	+0.1
2032	24	MLB	SD	11	11	59	250	55	29	7	100%	5.4	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.58	+0.2
2033	25	MLB	SD	10	10	60	253	57	28	7	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	2.6%	4.56	4.45	+0.3
2034	26	MLB	SD	10	10	60	253	57	28	7	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.0%	11.5%	2.6%	4.48	4.42	+0.3
2027	19	MLB	SD	4	4	24	101	19	22	3	100%	6.0	18.3%	21.6%	-3.3%	2.8%	6.39	6.20	-0.4
2028	20	MLB	SD	7	7	37	156	30	29	4	100%	5.3	19.1%	18.3%	0.8%	2.7%	5.92	5.69	-0.4
2029	21	MLB	SD	8	8	45	190	37	30	5	100%	5.6	19.7%	15.9%	3.8%	2.7%	5.53	5.32	-0.2
2030	22	MLB	SD	9	9	50	211	44	30	6	100%	5.6	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	2.6%	5.18	4.96	-0.1
2031	23	MLB	SD	10	10	53	224	48	29	6	100%	5.3	21.4%	12.8%	8.7%	2.6%	4.90	4.71	+0.1
2032	24	MLB	SD	10	10	55	232	51	27	6	100%	5.5	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	2.6%	4.68	4.53	+0.2
2033	25	MLB	SD	10	10	57	241	54	27	6	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	2.6%	4.51	4.40	+0.3
2034	26	MLB	SD	10	10	57	241	54	26	6	100%	5.7	22.6%	11.0%	11.5%	2.6%	4.43	4.37	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			72	72	378	1596	337	219	42	100%	5.2	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	2.6%	5.04	4.50	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			38	38	200	844	178	116	22	100%	5.3	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	2.6%	5.04	4.50	+0.9
Career	—			21	21	58	271	37	61	2	100%	2.7	13.8%	22.6%	-8.8%	0.7%	6.40	5.17	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—			73	73	200	940	130	212	6	100%	2.7	13.8%	22.6%	-8.8%	0.7%	6.40	5.17	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	7.00	17.1%	26.4%	2.9%	—	5.78	19.1%	0.6%	152	-1.22	—	—	—
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.12 FIP	19	SP	6.12	18.8%	22.2%	3.2%	.365	4.23	23.4%	9.9%	224	-1.89	3.05	258	87
Dylan MacLean L 2021 · 6.37 FIP	19	SP	6.37	13.6%	27.9%	1.6%	.271	4.17	15.7%	5.3%	101	-2.20	3.42	266	82
Alexuan Vega L 2018 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	11.5%	21.1%	3.6%	.306	5.64	13.6%	-7.7%	43	-1.16	5.05	111	79
Liam Norris L 2021 · 6.34 FIP	19	SP	6.34	17.4%	30.7%	1.5%	.396	5.40	24.2%	4.1%	119	-0.94	4.01	184	78
Seth Corry L 2017 · 5.87 FIP	18	SP-	5.87	13.0%	25.0%	1.3%	.197	3.30	23.2%	9.9%	161	-2.57	3.17	344	69
Edgardo Ibarra L 2021 · 7.88 FIP	18	SP-	7.88	17.5%	17.4%	7.4%	.286	5.23	15.1%	-3.7%	100	-2.65	5.13	142	67
McKenzie Mills L 2015 · 7.06 FIP	19	SP-	7.06	9.8%	21.4%	3.8%	.288	4.21	18.2%	11.0%	227	-2.85	4.08	334	66
Derek Corro L 2023 · 6.43 FIP	18	SP-	6.43	14.4%	26.5%	2.2%	.432	5.09	15.9%	-3.8%	67	-1.34	4.54	128	66
Omar Fernandez L 2017 · 5.90 FIP	18	SP	5.90	10.6%	13.9%	3.5%	.357	3.54	10.8%	0.1%	20	-2.36	3.46	120	66
Riger Fernandez L 2016 · 5.91 FIP	18	SP	5.91	9.3%	23.8%	1.1%	.263	4.91	17.4%	-4.8%	70	-1.00	4.61	164	65
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 6.01 FIP	21	SP	6.01	25.7%	20.5%	4.5%	.290	5.41	20.7%	7.2%	119	-0.60	4.38	134	65
Dewin Perez L 2015 · 5.84 FIP	20	SP	5.84	10.4%	16.6%	2.8%	.318	4.30	16.0%	-1.0%	44	-1.54	4.30	113	65
Braian Salazar L 2022 · 6.01 FIP	17	SP	6.01	13.8%	10.6%	5.0%	.250	4.09	21.9%	2.8%	89	-1.92	3.58	153	64
Zach Penrod L 2018 · 7.27 FIP	21	SP-	7.27	19.4%	13.4%	7.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	170	59
Eduardo Solano L 2015 · 6.15 FIP	18	SP-	6.15	10.5%	25.0%	1.4%	.307	4.93	15.0%	-7.4%	61	-1.22	4.34	100	58
Lewis Sifontes L 2023 · 8.18 FIP	17	SP-	8.18	12.5%	20.2%	6.5%	.329	5.84	15.3%	-3.6%	82	-2.34	4.91	110	56
Robert Garcia L 2017 · 6.54 FIP	21	SP-	6.54	12.0%	12.9%	5.1%	.382	4.07	21.2%	9.5%	96	-2.47	2.21	452	55
Mason Albright L 2022 · 7.78 FIP	19	SP	7.78	16.5%	11.4%	8.4%	.400	5.32	15.3%	6.6%	343	-2.46	4.24	391	55
Brandon Herbold L 2023 · 6.39 FIP	18	SP	6.39	10.1%	8.7%	5.5%	.253	5.61	18.7%	-1.1%	78	-0.78	3.72	102	53
Jacob Schlesener L 2016 · 7.07 FIP	19	SW	7.07	12.0%	39.4%	0.0%	.273	5.69	18.9%	-8.7%	60	-1.38	5.08	132	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	51	20.7%	14.8%	1.06	5.26
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58