Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | 3 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 2.7 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | 3 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 2.7 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.85 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 12 | 55 | 273 | 59 | 28 | 12 | 71% | 3.2 | 16.5% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 8.67 | 7.78 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 12 | 55 | 273 | 59 | 28 | 12 | 71% | 3.2 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 8.67 | 5.32 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 110 | 460 | 119 | 34 | 14 | 95% | 5.2 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 3.28 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 110 | 460 | 119 | 34 | 14 | 95% | 5.2 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 23 | 116 | 494 | 80 | 40 | 13 | 96% | 4.8 | 13.1% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.59 | 5.20 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 24 | 23 | 116 | 494 | 80 | 40 | 13 | 96% | 4.8 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 4.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 118 | 531 | 85 | 43 | 32 | 93% | 4.4 | 13.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.35 | 6.43 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 118 | 531 | 85 | 43 | 32 | 93% | 4.4 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.35 | 6.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 43 | 32 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 12.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.14 | 6.14 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 124 | 526 | 77 | 47 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.85 | 5.78 | -1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 583 | 94 | 51 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 5.57 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 145 | 613 | 103 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.50 | 5.46 | -0.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 147 | 620 | 105 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 147 | 620 | 105 | 55 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 5.52 | 5.55 | -1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 140 | 592 | 99 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.62 | 5.68 | -1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 91 | 52 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.76 | 5.86 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 253 | 37 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.85 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 65 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 83 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.50 | 5.46 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 91 | 46 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 94 | 49 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 5.52 | 5.55 | -1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 90 | 49 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.62 | 5.68 | -1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 84 | 48 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.76 | 5.86 | -1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 131 | 782 | 3300 | 545 | 292 | 144 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.60 | 5.23 | -2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 139 | 75 | 37 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.60 | 5.23 | -0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 82 | 406 | 1788 | 280 | 162 | 89 | 89% | 4.4 | 15.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.21 | 5.65 | -7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 881 | 138 | 80 | 44 | 89% | 4.4 | 15.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.21 | 5.65 | -1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Albright (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.14 | 12.3% | 9.3% | 4.6% | — | 5.59 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 408 | -0.55 | — | — | — |
| Jake Zokan L 2015 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 89 |
| Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.45 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 4.3% | .272 | 4.52 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 107 | -0.93 | 3.89 | 175 | 86 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .327 | 4.56 | 10.7% | 3.9% | 181 | -1.24 | 3.63 | 322 | 86 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.61 | 14.6% | 5.3% | 235 | -0.91 | 3.09 | 306 | 84 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .345 | 4.39 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 268 | -0.85 | 3.26 | 634 | 83 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2015 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.37 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.29 | 5.08 | 250 | 82 |
| Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | .322 | 5.74 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.28 | 2.22 | 286 | 77 |
| Luis Lugo L 2017 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.42 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .288 | 4.42 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 131 | -1.00 | 4.16 | 622 | 77 |
| Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.51 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .335 | 3.80 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 221 | -1.71 | 3.24 | 309 | 77 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2017 · 5.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.85 | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .306 | 4.17 | 12.2% | 4.4% | 147 | -1.68 | 3.65 | 446 | 77 |
| Travis Radke L 2015 · 6.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.56 | 13.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | .385 | 2.24 | 25.9% | 21.1% | 57 | -4.32 | 2.24 | 178 | 77 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.91 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 186 | -1.34 | 3.47 | 277 | 77 |
| Avery Short L 2023 · 6.60 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.60 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% | .336 | 4.67 | 14.7% | 6.6% | 303 | -1.93 | 4.31 | 463 | 76 |
| Domenick Carlini L 2017 · 5.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.52 | 13.1% | 9.1% | 4.3% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 134 | 76 |
| Tyson Guerrero L 2022 · 6.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.08 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.4% | .275 | 4.45 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 207 | -1.63 | 4.20 | 231 | 75 |
| Kenny Hernandez L 2021 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .297 | 4.52 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 170 | -0.44 | 3.20 | 424 | 75 |
| John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.16 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.74 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.42 | 3.21 | 332 | 75 |
| Trey Ball L 2017 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .367 | 4.75 | 14.4% | 5.3% | 65 | -0.40 | 4.75 | 437 | 75 |
| Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 75 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5.3 | 132 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.70 | 5.66 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 4.5 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 1.9 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 2.7 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 4.0 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 5.2 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 5.2 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |