Gelson Carpio prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Gelson Carpio P DSL Phillies White

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%21.7%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	0	22	102	20	20	0	0%	1.5	13.3%	24.5%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.73	5.08	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	0	22	102	20	20	0	0%	1.5	13.3%	24.5%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.73	5.08	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	0	22	102	20	20	0	0%	1.5	19.6%	19.6%	0.0%	0.0%	5.73	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	17.1%	4.6%	3.0%	5.44	5.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	—	20	0	21	88	20	13	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.17	5.06	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	—	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.17	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	6	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.17	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	117	20	0%	1.1	22.3%	14.7%	7.5%	2.9%	5.17	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		15	0	22	102	14	25	0	0%	1.5	13.3%	24.5%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.73	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	927	124	227	0	0%	1.5	13.3%	24.5%	-11.2%	0.0%	5.73	5.08	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gelson Carpio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	21.7%	17.1%	3.0%	—	5.06	22.3%	7.5%	21	-0.38	—	—	—
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	89
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	88
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
Daniel Procopio R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	21	SU	4.33	23.4%	18.8%	1.5%	.283	4.43	20.5%	6.5%	81	+0.10	4.16	103	87
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Daniel Lloyd R 2021 · 5.40 FIP	20	SU	5.40	20.4%	22.4%	2.2%	.367	4.15	18.0%	8.5%	226	-1.25	3.59	319	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	83
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	83
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82