Cole Tolbert

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASalem Red Sox	5	3	11	5.56	2.22	28.0%	12.0%	—	K 20.7% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.14
2026	23	ABOS	16	13	51	3.00	2.96	25.1%	9.5%	—	K 18.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	6	6	32	4.71	4.71	20.4%	10.9%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBOS	3	3	20	4.57	4.52	21.1%	10.2%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBOS	5	5	31	4.51	4.48	21.5%	10.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Andrew Quezada (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	20.7%	14.2%	6.6%	0.0%	5.56	3.14	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	20.7%	14.2%	6.6%	0.0%	5.56	3.14	—
2024	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	5	3	11	50	14	6	0	60%	2.3	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	0.0%	5.56	2.22	—
2026	23	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.96	—
2026	23	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	18.6%	11.2%	7.4%	1.8%	3.00	3.96	—
2026	23	A RAW	Salem RidgeYaks	16	13	51	211	53	20	3	81%	3.2	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	1.4%	3.00	2.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	6	6	32	135	28	15	4	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	46	196	41	20	6	100%	5.8	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.56	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	46	196	42	20	6	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.55	4.52	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	46	193	42	20	6	100%	5.7	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.55	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	44	187	40	19	6	100%	6.3	21.5%	10.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.59	4.63	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	20	84	18	9	2	100%	6.7	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.57	4.52	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	5	5	31	131	28	13	4	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.48	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	32	15	4	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	37	156	34	16	5	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	123	521	112	53	15	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.15	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	86	24	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.53	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		21	16	62	261	50	31	4	76%	3.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	1.5%	3.47	3.80	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	51	200	837	159	98	13	76%	3.0	19.0%	11.8%	7.2%	1.5%	3.47	3.80	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Tolbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.4%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.54	21.4%	11.3%	139	-0.17	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	81
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	77
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	76
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	76
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	76
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	21.3%	10.3%	1.13	4.59
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*