Luis Rives

OF FCL Astros

Age 22 S/L 6'2" / 216 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	ROKHOU	117	.207/.400/.402	3	9	53	—	.134/.270/.247
2026	21	ROKHOU	140	.279/.460/.442	4	17	85	—	.205/.331/.316
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBHOU	250	.197/.284/.298	4	6	67	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	64	.204/.290/.314	1	2	71	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBHOU	137	.208/.293/.324	3	4	75	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wRC+90

BB%90

wOBA82

Speed81

ISO70

K%57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHayden Cantrelle (age 23) · Roberto Caro (age 22) · Loidel Chapelli (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 117 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .281 / .296

PA117

HR2

K%29

BB%10

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE73

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	140	104	29	3	1	4	32	28	3	17	2	279	460	442	903	163	342	20	23	409	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	233	30	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	97	13	1	2	2	15	48	3	9	0	134	270	247	517	113	222	41	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	140	117	24	2	1	3	19	40	3	17	2	205	331	316	647	111	275	29	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	235	30	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	132	121	28	4	0	2	10	27	0	12	3	231	290	314	604	83	283	20	8	274	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	97	13	1	2	2	15	48	3	9	0	134	270	247	517	113	224	41	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	117	87	18	2	3	3	25	33	3	9	0	207	400	402	802	195	283	28	21	362	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	140	117	24	2	1	3	19	40	3	17	2	205	331	316	647	111	280	29	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	140	104	29	3	1	4	32	28	3	17	2	279	460	442	903	163	342	20	23	409	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	233	30	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	98	13	1	2	2	15	48	3	9	0	133	270	245	514	112	222	41	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	140	117	24	2	1	3	19	40	3	17	2	205	331	316	647	111	275	29	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	132	125	21	3	0	1	6	39	0	12	3	168	206	216	422	48	233	30	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	117	98	13	1	2	2	15	48	3	9	0	133	270	245	514	112	222	41	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	140	117	24	2	1	3	19	40	3	17	2	205	331	316	647	111	275	29	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	250	221	44	7	2	4	24	71	3	6	1	197	284	298	582	101	268	28	10	267	67	-10	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	185	163	32	5	1	3	18	52	2	5	1	202	288	311	599	109	271	28	10	274	71	-6	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	297	263	54	9	2	6	29	83	3	8	1	206	291	322	613	116	273	28	10	279	75	-9	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	365	323	67	11	2	8	35	100	4	10	2	209	293	329	623	121	274	27	10	283	78	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	409	363	77	13	3	9	39	111	4	11	2	211	295	335	630	124	275	27	10	285	79	-10	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	430	382	82	14	3	10	41	117	4	12	2	211	295	336	631	124	275	27	10	286	80	-10	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	64	57	11	2	0	1	6	18	1	2	0	204	290	314	604	110	274	28	9	276	71	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	137	122	25	4	1	3	13	38	1	4	1	208	293	324	617	116	277	28	9	281	75	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	189	167	35	6	1	4	18	52	2	5	1	211	295	332	627	121	278	28	10	285	78	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	222	197	41	7	1	5	21	60	2	6	1	213	297	337	634	124	279	27	9	287	79	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	233	207	44	8	1	5	22	63	2	6	1	214	297	338	635	125	279	27	9	288	80	-6	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	845	750	156	27	4	18	80	231	8	23	4	208	291	327	618	119	273	27	9	285	72	-22	+3	+0	-5	+18	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	120	21	3	14	62	178	6	18	3	208	291	328	619	120	273	27	10	285	72	-17	+2	+0	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2192	1937	390	61	15	44	213	623	24	87	14	201	288	316	605	115	270	28	10	275	72	-50	+6	+0	-11	+39	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	115	18	4	13	63	185	7	26	4	200	287	314	601	113	268	28	10	275	72	-18	+2	+0	-4	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	961	20	26	209	290	328	-6	+0	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	14	18	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Rives (OGILVIE)	22	25→30	42→47	61→66	73	196/281/296	100	268	2	3	29%	10%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	41→40	37→40	60	50	192/272/272	80	251	2	20	23%	9%	57	-1.8	203/271/276	73	310	2	18	32%	8%	57	-1.8	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕Isaiah Greene 2024 · A	22	41→42	38→40	56→55	50	187/286/268	81	306	5	19	36%	12%	62	-1.4	198/272/294	96	312	7	14	35%	9%	62	-1.4	155/236/258	102	239	4	15	34%	10%	37	-0.6
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	45→46	40→45	55→50	53	211/302/310	100	290	7	16	27%	11%	77	-0.3	227/287/348	121	312	12	11	29%	8%	80	-0.2	232/274/365	133	311	17	8	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Allan Castro 2024 · A	21	42→45	42→45	52→50	47	205/277/316	111	276	7	12	27%	8%	69	-0.9	213/282/329	116	284	11	15	27%	8%	74	-0.6	212/279/324	113	274	12	17	26%	8%	69	-0.7
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→37	41→45	58→50	47	208/286/313	105	274	8	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	190/258/293	103	266	10	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	173/241/264	91	242	10	7	31%	7%	41	-2.2
✕Michael Beltre 2017 · A	22	44→52	39→45	56→60	43	207/272/299	91	291	5	13	29%	7%	62	-1.4	216/282/298	82	301	4	10	27%	8%	65	-1.2	224/296/341	118	306	9	22	28%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	39→41	46→45	54→55	46	195/283/323	128	276	13	17	32%	9%	74	-0.6	200/283/317	117	274	11	17	29%	9%	72	-0.7	190/277/301	111	259	10	19	29%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Juan Kelly 2016 · A	22	43→48	39→45	52→45	49	205/274/292	87	264	6	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	218/277/340	122	303	10	5	30%	7%	74	-0.6	215/276/341	126	296	11	3	30%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Eddinson Paulino 2024 · A	22	42	46→50	54→50	43	210/273/349	139	282	12	17	29%	7%	75	-0.5	202/261/322	120	278	12	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	186/244/297	111	257	12	11	31%	6%	49	-1.3
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→40	39→50	55	45	212/283/303	91	280	6	19	25%	7%	68	-1.0	207/280/342	135	279	13	18	29%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/337	142	264	15	19	30%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Reed Trimble 2022 · A	22	43	37→55	51→65	42	200/266/271	71	309	5	10	34%	8%	54	-2.0	215/278/308	93	301	7	17	29%	8%	67	-1.1	207/274/378	171	260	19	31	28%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Edwin Mateo 2021 · A	22	43	39→40	51→55	50	205/286/288	82	267	7	13	24%	9%	66	-1.1	212/274/297	85	302	5	13	29%	6%	63	-1.4	206/269/288	83	293	5	14	29%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Geraldo Quintero 2024 · A	22	45→47	38→40	54→60	46	214/277/299	85	280	5	21	24%	7%	64	-1.3	210/281/306	96	275	8	28	25%	8%	68	-1.0	199/277/299	100	256	9	37	25%	8%	63	-0.8
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Nelson Medina 2023 · A	22	41	40→45	53→50	47	195/282/289	95	292	6	13	32%	10%	65	-1.2	176/236/261	85	335	6	13	46%	7%	40	-3.0	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Darnell Sweeney 2013 · A	22	49→51	41→50	58→55	46	236/292/339	103	298	8	21	23%	7%	79	-0.2	232/286/361	129	319	10	22	29%	7%	82	-0.0	230/286/363	133	314	11	23	29%	7%	80	-0.1
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3

Luis Rives

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps